|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
07-18-2006, 04:39 PM
|
|||
|
|||
hypothetical derby
ok guys im new to the site - a friend referred me to it - but i wanted to post this question to you. i was having a debate with a friend of mine about a hypothetical race between the triple crown horses of this decade - 2000 + - and who would win. so here is the criteria we came up with.
taking into consideration only how the horses were in may and june of their 3yo year we came up with our field of 20. horses like flower alley that got good later on in their 3yo year were not included. so if this was the field - post position included - going 1.25 miles at churchill downs on a fast track, who would you take? pp 1] giacomo 2] rock hard ten 3] congaree 4] aptitude 5] peace rules 6] birdstone 7] point given 8] barbaro 9] afleet alex 10] smarty jones 11] fusaichi pegasus 12] empire maker 13] war emblem 14] funny cide 15] bernardini 16] red bullet 17] monarchos 18] perfect drift 19] ten most wanted 20] proud citizen 
|
|
#4
07-18-2006, 04:56 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Here's my line
1. Giacomo 75-1 2. Rock Hard Ten 30-1 3. Congaree 25-1 4. Aptitude 20-1 5. Peace Rules 50-1 6. Birdstone 25-1 7. Point Given 6-1 8. Barbaro 7-1 9. Afleet Alex 9-1 10. Smarty Jones 10-1 11. Fusaichi Pegasus 15-1 12. Empire Maker 12-1 13. War Emblem 15-1 14. Funny Cide 20-1 15. Bernardini 10-1 16. Red Bullet 30-1 17. Monarchos 12-1 18. Perfect Drift 30-1 19. Ten Most Wanted 20-1 20. Proud Citizen 75-1
|
|
#5
07-18-2006, 06:04 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Secondly, JJP's line seems fairly reasonable and if those were the odds I would be putting my money on what I see as the value horses. They are: #6 Birdstone - 25/1 - almost always tough on a dry track #11 FuPeg - 15/1 - looked very good in his derby to be at this price #16 Red Bullet - 30/1 - definitely capable of hitting the board
|
|
#6
07-18-2006, 06:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Does anyone remember when that guy on the ESPN Board signed up and claimed that he had this great handicapping software? He claimed that he made all of this money using it... He told us that Congaree was going to win the Derby, which was fine, not a terrible choice, except it was 2003, he was 100% serious as well...
Last edited by Pointg5 : 07-18-2006 at 07:01 PM.
|
|
#7
07-18-2006, 09:48 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Nice work, JJP.
|
|
#8
07-18-2006, 09:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Here's the bottom line, folks ...
Run this race ten times ... and you'll get ten different winners. There are no standouts in this bunch ... and every one of them has big, big built-in excuses for their losses.
|
|
#10
07-19-2006, 08:41 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Thx
There will always be some disagreement in these type of theoretical matchups. Its a lot tougher making a line on 20 great horses in a race than the standard 7 horse field with 2 standouts and 2 fillers. I see what Kasept is saying. In that field, there would likely be an insane pace and Monarchos comes to mind as being a deep closer. But he never won again after the Derby, and he had the absolutely perfect pace setup. I caught that trifecta for one of my biggest scores ever so nobody is a bigger Monarchos fan (and Invisible Ink fan as well) but in retrospect, I realize Point Given was a superior animal to Monarchos. Last edited by JJP : 07-19-2006 at 08:44 AM.
|
|
#11
07-19-2006, 09:28 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Without knowing the posttime odds.... I'll make a tri. Ticket..
ALL / ALL / ALL and see you @ the windows !! If you want to and another ALL... make it a super ticket !
__________________
Ole' Timer says to another leaving Keystone Race Track (Philly ) ...""Its a good thing I broke even today, I really needed the money """!!!! Gotta Love Horse Racing !!
|
|
#12
11-29-2006, 12:47 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
All/ All/ Drift...seriously, it's really tough between Smarty and Point Given. I don't think there is really a rabbit in the scenario here, so I'd give Smarty a real chance to stalk Peace Rules and Congaree to win, but PG was just so good when he wanted to be.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
|
|
#13
07-18-2006, 04:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Rock Hard Ten - throw out 16th Congaree - throw out (eary pace setter) 13th Aptitude - throw out 15th Peace Rules - Fades to 11th Birdstone - finishes strong but comes of short of the money 7th Point Given - if healthy and get a good ride--possibly 2nd Barbaro - The most likely winner 1st Afleet Alex - gets a piece of the money 3rd Smarty Jones - makes a move but runs out of gas 8th Fu Peg - Takes tons of money and finishes 17th Empire Maker - trouble trip, finishes 4th War Emblem - gets caught up in speed duel with Congaree, 19th Funny Cide - makes middle move, finishes 5th Bernardini - Intriguing play, lack of experience is a negative, finishes 9th Red Bullet - Not a bad horse, finishes 6th Monarchos - Trouble trip from the 17 hole, finishes 10th Perfect Drift - others pass him, 14th Ten Most Wanted - yeah right, 18th Proud Citizen - good closer, finishes 12th
|
|
#14
07-18-2006, 04:57 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I'll take an Afleet Alex, Barbaro, Funny Cide, and Point Given (not necessarily in that order) superfecta. I would have included Smarty Jones, but he would have folded when FC looked him dead in the eye.
If Monarchos came back to the form he did the day he won the KD...no one beats him except for maybe Barbaro.
|
|
#15
07-18-2006, 05:09 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I think I'd take Afleet Alex in this one with Smarty Jones to place.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
|
|
#16
07-18-2006, 05:25 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Well...hard one! With those horses, I'd lean toward Point Given or Barbaro with Smarty in there as well. I'm a bit concerned about Point Given over the surface so...if forced to pick, I'd go:
Smarty Barbaro Point Given But I'd damn sure box them!
__________________
"Always be yourself...unless you suck!"
|
|
#17
07-18-2006, 05:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
barbaro
smarty fupeg alex keep in mind that no horse the last 60 years won by as large a margin as barbaro--and he went by everyone with barely a nudge. man that horse made it look so easy that day. and against what many many people said was the deepest field in years.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
|
|
#18
07-18-2006, 05:32 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Oh man, that's tough! Smarty and Barbaro in a photo with Smarty gutting out the edge, followed by Alex, PG and Funny Cide.
|
|
#19
07-19-2006, 09:07 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#20
07-19-2006, 09:10 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
I chose to ignore it mira... Besides Perfect Drift was MUCH better than 10 was at age three (at the time of the derby). Not that I didn't love 10 then, but I think he needed time to mature into his huge self. PD would be in my tri box with probably Barbaro and Empire Maker.
__________________
"Until one has loved an animal, part of their soul remains unawaken. 
|
Hybrid Mode
