Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[Kasept]

From Steve Davidowitz (Courtesy of DRF), here are the 23 individual future wager entities:

Here are thumbnail sketches of the 23 horses in Pool 1. The most obvious common denominator is that all but a few seem close together in Derby potential.

IN MAROON: Races this weekend..

* Anak Nakal: Won the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill in November over Blackberry Road, yet his breeding suggests he might need even longer distances than the Kentucky Derby for his best.

* Blackberry Road: Has several in-the-money finishes in graded stakes routes, which may limit his speculative potential to the superfecta on Derby Day.

* Bob Black Jack: Winner of the recent Sunshine Millions Dash has sprint breeding and seems a question mark for graded stakes routes.

* Colonel John: Stretch-runner bred for classic distances was second to highly regarded Into Mischief in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December. Would be a big surprise to see him at acceptable odds in this pool.

* Court Vision: Trained by Bill Mott, this son of Gulch won all three of his route races, including the one-mile Iroquois at Churchill and the nine-furlong Remsen at Aqueduct last fall. Another likely to be among the most popular choices in Pool 1.

* Cowboy Cal: Three-time turf winner trained by Todd Pletcher is following a path by design that resembles 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. His dirt test is coming soon, so he could be an interesting price stab here.

* Crown of Thorns: Won the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 2 when stretched out in distance for the first time and is one more big race away from solidifying his trip to Louisville.

* Denis of Cork: Won his lone start last season at Churchill and came back with a promising allowance win around two turns in the slop at Fair Grounds on Jan. 19. Has classic distance breeding and might be worth a small flyer at huge odds.

* El Gato Malo: Undefeated in three starts on three different synthetic tracks in California. Rated kindly behind the speed types in the one-mile Gold Rush at Golden Gate Fields and the Grade 3 San Rafael at Santa Anita. Will he continue to improve at longer distances?

* Etched: Strong winner of both career starts last year, including the one-mile, Grade 3 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on Oct. 20. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is outstanding with distance horses. Consider for Future Wager play.

* Georgie Boy: Won the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity in a mad scramble Sept. 8 and was scratched from the Sunshine Millions Dash, so we have not yet seen if he is a more mature 3-year-old. Long odds available for those who believe.

* Giant Moon: Undefeated New York-bred won the Count Fleet at Aqueduct on Jan 5, but will have to show more in graded stakes before he can be seriously considered.

* Into Mischief: Improved to win the CashCall at 1 1/16 miles around two turns at Hollywood on Dec. 22 for Hall of Famer Dick Mandella, who also trains Crown of Thorns. Like many of the highest rated California based 3-year- olds, he has not yet run on a dirt track.

* Majestic Warrior: As hinted above, might be the best Derby prospect Hall of Fame trainer Mott has ever had.

* Monba: Pletcher trainee was only fourth in the CashCall Futurity, but did finish well and is bred to improve as he matures.

* Pyro: Steve Asmussen trainee demonstrated enough when second to War Pass in the Champagne and BC Juvenile last fall to warrant attention. Scheduled to run in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 9 and a good performance probably will make him the betting favorite in Pool 1.

* Signature Move: Two-time allowance winner at 1 1/16 miles on synthetic tracks in Southern California is by undefeated 2002 juvenile champ Vindication. May offer some value at very long odds in this pool.

* Smooth Air: Gamely won the seven-furlong, Grade 2 Hutcheson at Gulfstream on Jan 5. Ambiguous distance breeding, but trainer Bennie Stutts Jr. has given him smart works for his next start in a route. Looms a possible roll of the dice for this pool.

* Tale of Ekati: Barclay Tagg trainee failed to handle the sloppy track at Monmouth when fourth to War Pass in the BC Juvenile and must prove that he will like two turns as much as he enjoyed one-turn sprints.

* War Pass: Undefeated Eclipse Award champion juvenile in 2007 is trained by two-time Derby winner Nick Zito. Has strong front-running speed and might outrun his pedigree's preference for middle distances.

* Yankee Bravo: British import won a stakes on grass at Santa Anita in December and then overpowered a modest field to win the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields on the synthetic Tapeta track on Jan. 27. Has some upside.

* Z Fortune: Undefeated winner of Lecomte at the Fair Grounds on Jan. 12, and a stablemate to Pyro, will get his chance to prove his class soon.

* Z Humor: Fifth-place finisher in the BC Juvenile for Mott and third-place finisher to War Pass in the Champagne, he returned in December to post a dead-heat victory (with Turf War) in the $1 million Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. Bred to improve as he matures and is likely to be a huge price in this pool.

[blackthroatedwind]

Opinions are one thing, but it's another to not have your facts straight or to leave out pretty pertinent information.....


* Cowboy Cal: Three-time turf winner trained by Todd Pletcher is following a path by design that resembles 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. His dirt test is coming soon, so he could be an interesting price stab here.


Ummmm......not according to his trainer Todd Pletcher who very recently said he is remaining on the grass and possibly will try the Blue Grass ( polytrack ) before a possible run in the Derby. Todd suggested it seemed that some turf horses liked the Churchill dirt surface but frankly sounded less than enthusiastic about running this horse on the dirt. Regardless, unless the Derby is " soon ", then as of the last report I read this information is inaccurate.


* Etched: Strong winner of both career starts last year, including the one-mile, Grade 3 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on Oct. 20. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is outstanding with distance horses. Consider for Future Wager play.


Call me crazy, but don't you think it was worth mentioning that he is wintering in Dubai? Kiaran McLaughlin is outstanding with distance horses? Ummm, OK. Thanks.

[Indian Charlie]

yeah, that whole list writeup is pretty shaky.

majestic warrior?? uh, yeah, right.

i would be shocked to see that horse even run in the derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Yeah, I was going to mention that as well, but at least that's an opinion. Not an opinion you or I seem to agree with.....but he's entitled.

A horse that runs like a closing sprinter, who's dam was a closing sprinter, feels tough to recommend for the Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

i was going to critique his comments in greater detail, but felt he probably had a tough time coming up with something useful to say for most of those.

my commentary would have been more along the lines of eliminating all but a few of them.

back to majestic warrior however. all the hype on that horse revolves around a highly suspect race. wasnt it a three, or maybe four horse field?

one horse came out hurt and hasn't run back yet, and the other one, i dont think he's won or done anything useful back at all either.

he got a dream setup too.

mott cant really think he's his greatest derby prospect ever, can he?

come to think of it, he's not really a derby fever sorta guy anyways, so even if he does, it's not saying anything.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i was going to critique his comments in greater detail, but felt he probably had a tough time coming up with something useful to say for most of those.

my commentary would have been more along the lines of eliminating all but a few of them.

back to majestic warrior however. all the hype on that horse revolves around a highly suspect race. wasnt it a three, or maybe four horse field?

one horse came out hurt and hasn't run back yet, and the other one, i dont think he's won or done anything useful back at all either.

he got a dream setup too.

mott cant really think he's his greatest derby prospect ever, can he?

come to think of it, he's not really a derby fever sorta guy anyways, so even if he does, it's not saying anything.

While I don't completely disagree with you guys' analysis regarding this colt, I don't think all the hype comes just from his performance in that race. Some of it is pedigree-hype too. If a horse with a different pedigree ran the exact same race that he did in the Hopeful, there would be far less Derby-hype. When a horse by AP Indy and out of a multiple-G1 winning daughter of Seeking the Gold runs that kind of race at 7f, people - perhaps understandably - start getting excited about the horse's potential when stretching out as a 3yo.
But of course, that still leaves the Champagne to explain away.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

* Cowboy Cal: Three-time turf winner trained by Todd Pletcher is following a path by design that resembles 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. His dirt test is coming soon, so he could be an interesting price stab here.


Ummmm......not according to his trainer Todd Pletcher who very recently said he is remaining on the grass and possibly will try the Blue Grass ( polytrack ) before a possible run in the Derby. Todd suggested it seemed that some turf horses liked the Churchill dirt surface but frankly sounded less than enthusiastic about running this horse on the dirt. Regardless, unless the Derby is " soon ", then as of the last report I read this information is inaccurate.

yea Pletch kind of made an early announcement that he was going the Barbaro Route... and now he switched plans and is going the less fun Twilight Meteor route (if u goes lanes end @ turfway)

Cowboy Cal is very impressive to me. He looks like a big turf horse, but he does have the running style. And he has amazing willingness at the finish. Some of those types strike the ground pretty hard when the run on dirt, and maybe it could be a concern as to preps (if he is derby bound at all). If he can run his race on dirt, look out.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

yea Pletch kind of made an early announcement that he was going the Barbaro Route... and now he switched plans and is going the less fun Twilight Meteor route (if u goes lanes end @ turfway)

Cowboy Cal is very impressive to me. He looks like a big turf horse, but he does have the running style. And he has amazing willingness at the finish. Some of those types strike the ground pretty hard when the run on dirt, and maybe it could be a concern as to preps (if he is derby bound at all). If he can run his race on dirt, look out.

My wallet hopes you're right.

[Bobby Fischer]

as of today there is no horse that I would say is a lock to finish top 3 in the derby.

Zfortune is the most impressive so far on dirt. I dislike his pedigree a lot. IMO he is a product of good training. Horse like that tend to fold when the class is at it its highest. Siphons are prone to be cheap speed, but this one sold for more, and he has the look of a route distance horse under Asmussen.

Cowboy Cal is the other who really caught my eye. How is he going to run on the dirt? How about a few lengths off the pace on the dirt? can he save ground and take a little bit of kickback?

Anak Nakaal looks good as well. Does he have that champion talent? Has shown flashes but appears to still have room to grow.

Court Vision has done nothing wrong. He isn't a runt, but he isn't exactly eye catching...

Then there are a lot of others who have some potential to enter the mix. I would like to see all of them do well, and make for a great prep season

[Cajungator26]

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

Agreed. The second finisher in his race ran OK on Saturday.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Agreed. The second finisher in his race ran OK on Saturday.

Yep... good to have something to look forward to at this point.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

Not too shabby...


Bordeaux Bandit


Date: 02/07/2008
Track: PALM MEADOWS TRAINING CENTER
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 35:00 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 1/16

[SlewsMyHero]

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

Why are we "taking the absolute worst of it"? IMO, this is severely faulty thinking.

This pool has the same takeout as any Churchill pool. When the takeout is the same, what matters is how good your information is compared to other bettors and how well you make use of that information. I would venture that many Derby Trail cappers are in a much better position to evaluate the 23 individual entries' chances than the average bettor is.

In the Derby Future Pool, you KNOW that some sizable amount of money is being bet foolishly. The fact 10's of thousands of dollars will be bet on horses running this weekend BEFORE they race is solid proof of that. That's an immediate advantage to anyone willing to wait until Sunday to bet.

The chance that some of these horses won't make it to the starting gate is just another factor that goes into an assessment of fair odds. It doesn't change the track take, which is what we are always trying to overcome.

--Dunbar

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

I'm going to Vegas in two weeks and this gives me something to compare with the Futures going on this week. I think I can wait and probably get much better odds there.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?

I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick.

jay you get a "be nice"..anyone that has a scientific opinion that its the CONNECTIONS betting on the last tick..has a vivid imagination.

[Bobby Fischer]

quote dahoss :
"Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?"
This isn't a smartass answer even though you may think it is , but put 2 and 2 together. I didn't mention the horse you mentioned, and I plan to make money on that horse when he loses his first race.

quote dahoss:"I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick."
Not so much that a siphon will fold (although in general they are kind of mediocre turf sprinters or cheap route speed/mudders) , but that a horse who is moved up by a trainer usually folds at the higher classes. Zfortune is a good Siphon. He cost 4x his sire avg. He was the top siphon price @ 80k. With that Asmussen bridle and the heavily muscled frame he almost looks like a gray Curlin. And right now Asmussen has Zfortune looking like a superhorse. He hasn't shown any weakness yet. Maybe later in the prep season when he goes 9 furlongs, we get to look for signs of stress or weakness. Not convinced that he can rate and win at 10 furlongs, but hasn't shown a weakness yet. He has a good chance of winning the Risen Star.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?

I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick.

If Z Fortune ever wins a major race without the benefit of an absolutely perfect trip it will be an upset of major performances. And, quite frankly, let's see him run a good race outside of Louisiana, where horses from the Assmussen barn are running one incredible race after another. Take a look at the LeComte again.....Z Humor had the trip of a lifetime. Is he a nice horse? Maybe, but for anyone to suggest he's been realistically impressive suggests a pretty cursory look at his actual performances. I would like to take the future book price on Icabad Crane against him in this summer's Albany at Saratoga.

The pedigree stuff is funny.

It's hard to take a stand against Asmussen down there.

Same goes for Amoss and Autrey. Seems like those guys could cure cancer if they were doctors.