Handicapping Question - Race 7 Aqu 11/18

[Rudeboyelvis]

Was wondering if anyone would care to offer an opinion or two on the approach they would have or did take in this race. The 3, Bailero, was the clear cut favorite; selected by all three of the DRF cappers and thus their concensus pick of the day. The 8yo Roy was coming in off a victory 10 days ago in a 16k n1y claiming event, the condition meeting win over the same AQU track back in April. He went off as the post time favorite at 9-5 and of course won.

He really hadn't shown much form at all since that win in April, and the move up to 25K off of only 10 days rest certainly made him appear to be vunerable at least in my mind's eye, especially considering the field he was facing today.

Wall Street Scandal, Military Major, River Mtn Road, My Husband and Reaffirmed all looked to me, on paper, as much more logical choices, considering recent form at this level, recent BSF's, etc.

The question is, what did the DRF folks see here to select him (correctly) as such an overwhelming favorite? This was the kind of race that really makes one go through their approach to try and decipher whether they are missing something, of if this was simply a "horse for course" going back to the April win.

[Linny]

I don't have the pp's here, but this was a recarding of a cancelled race on THU, which I did handicap. Bailero is a big "back class" horse, with a great record on the AQU main dirt.
I was sketchy on him last time, that $16y race. The win however was good, and though he was stepping well up (conditioned claimers, no matter what the tag are bottom level) that race could be seen as a confidence booster for an old war horse.l
As a public handicapper a (likely) low priced horse like Bailero can be a trap. If he loses and you are all over him at low odds, you look like a moron. There were several decent, in form horses in there to choose, after all. OTOH, he has a winning profile (alot of WINS) and loves AQU and seems to thrive in colder weather, so it looked like all systems were "go."

[blackthroatedwind]

I guess as public handicappers in a tough race they gravitated to the favorite as their top choice. Whether they would have stood alone with a horse like that in multi-race bets is another question entirely.

IMO it was a poor choice, as I didn't like Bailero at all, and thought in that wide open race he was a terrible play at 8:5. He won....so I'm wrong. On the other hand he got a dream trip ( while the third horse got a rather curious ride ) and won a close decision. In the long run taking horses like that at 8:5 won't do you a lot of good. But, as a public handicapper it counts as a win, so I guess they did their job well.

Personally, I hope the Baileros of the world are 8:5 every day of the week.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess as public handicappers in a tough race they gravitated to the favorite as their top choice. Whether they would have stood alone with a horse like that in multi-race bets is another question entirely.

IMO it was a poor choice, as I didn't like Bailero at all, and thought in that wide open race he was a terrible play at 8:5. He won....so I'm wrong. On the other hand he got a dream trip ( while the third horse got a rather curious ride ) and won a close decision. In the long run taking horses like that at 8:5 won't do you a lot of good. But, as a public handicapper it counts as a win, so I guess they did their job well.

Personally, I hope the Baileros of the world are 8:5 every day of the week.

Great perspective, Andy. I guess it was the overwhelming support the horse received coupled with the end result that had me scratching my head, when in reality Military Major had a dreadful trip by Arroyo,(I'm not sure the stewards didn't have a word with him about it) and clearly was the horse to beat in the stretch. On that line and though not nearly as blatant, Castro didn't do My Husband any favor either.

[blackthroatedwind]

I thought Arroyo's ride in the 8th was insane as well. Take a look again at how he rode the 10 horse. That horse actually ran pretty well all things considered.

As far as the 7th, if it hadn't been part of the late Pick-4 I would never have played it. My opinion in those kind of races is mediocre at best.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I thought Arroyo's ride in the 8th was insane as well. Take a look again at how he rode the 10 horse. That horse actually ran pretty well all things considered.

That's the JOHNNY V patented turf ride. It's catching on with all the jocks --even Edgar has been practicing it lately. Arroyo gave it his own added twist however: in addition to taking both turns wide and going needlessly wide WITHOUT COVER on the backstretch, he also idiotically rushed the horse on the backstretch --guess the race was to the 2nd turn for him.

If any of the stewards were the least bit competent, they'd fine any jock that goes needlessly wide without cover on the backstretch on the turf. Those types of rides should be UNacceptable at this level. Of course, we'd be hardpressed to find even a handful of jocks/jock agents that understand why this is not a favorable trip.

As for irony: Johnny V actually gave Trouble Maker a decent ride --and still got beat by an inside trip.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Linny

I don't have the pp's here, but this was a recarding of a cancelled race on THU, which I did handicap. Bailero is a big "back class" horse, with a great record on the AQU main dirt.
I was sketchy on him last time, that $16y race. The win however was good, and though he was stepping well up (conditioned claimers, no matter what the tag are bottom level) that race could be seen as a confidence booster for an old war horse.l
As a public handicapper a (likely) low priced horse like Bailero can be a trap. If he loses and you are all over him at low odds, you look like a moron. There were several decent, in form horses in there to choose, after all. OTOH, he has a winning profile (alot of WINS) and loves AQU and seems to thrive in colder weather, so it looked like all systems were "go."

Makes a ton of sense. Bailero had 7 starts lifetime at AQU with 4 wins and 2 place efforts coming in...no one else came close to that kind of "track record", literally. It's an angle that I overlook too often I'm afraid. Thanks Linny

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Was wondering if anyone would care to offer an opinion or two on the approach they would have or did take in this race. The 3, Bailero, was the clear cut favorite; selected by all three of the DRF cappers and thus their concensus pick of the day. The 8yo Roy was coming in off a victory 10 days ago in a 16k n1y claiming event, the condition meeting win over the same AQU track back in April. He went off as the post time favorite at 9-5 and of course won.

He really hadn't shown much form at all since that win in April, and the move up to 25K off of only 10 days rest certainly made him appear to be vunerable at least in my mind's eye, especially considering the field he was facing today.

Wall Street Scandal, Military Major, River Mtn Road, My Husband and Reaffirmed all looked to me, on paper, as much more logical choices, considering recent form at this level, recent BSF's, etc.

The question is, what did the DRF folks see here to select him (correctly) as such an overwhelming favorite? This was the kind of race that really makes one go through their approach to try and decipher whether they are missing something, of if this was simply a "horse for course" going back to the April win.

It's Dutrow, Prado, and it's Aqueduct. He makes moves like that all the time, Indian War Dance another example of the 16k N1Y-to-50k winner in the span of 10 days. And yes, it makes me sick.