Del Mar - Initial thoughts?

[Sightseek]

I only watched the 7th today but for those who have been capping or watching closely...any thoughts so far on how it is playing?

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I only watched the 7th today but for those who have been capping or watching closely...any thoughts so far on how it is playing?

speed doesn't stick, regardless of the surface (only 2 maybe 3 gate to wire winners from what i have scene)


-bt-

[Riot]

My only consistent impression is just like Kee and Arlington, but I only watched half the day: "fit" horses finish well, no matter their style. Speed doesn't carry by a gifted rock-hard rail, it had better be "true" turn of foot, and the horse had better be fit for the distance, too. It seems like horses tire on it more quickly, to my eyes, if they are questionable.

Race 1 - 1 turn mile: 1st and 2nd chalkfest - 1st was a deep closer (from last in the field to first) but this is that horses known running style, it was third off a layoff after 2 sprints, and clearly stood out over this field speed- and class-wise as the favorite and 2nd favorite.

Race 2 - another chalkfest. 1 mile, maiden 40K claimers - speed (7-1) led through most of the race, just nipped at the wire by (2-1) stalker, then 3rd was 7-5 and fourth 9-2.

Race 3 - 1 1/16 miles, 10K claimers. Surprise! 65-1 shot with lower speed figure (but a strong finish figure) wins. I couldn't see that coming but this is 10K maiden claimers ... Speed didn't hold over 2 turns. I think second place was 9/2, then third 5-1 and fourth 7-1. Talmos speedy front-runner collapsed, if I recall correctly.

Race 4 - 5 1/2 furlong sprint, 100K maiden claimers. Nakatani brings home my stalker for a nice finish to my day. I didn't see the rest of the card.

I have no problems with artificial surfaces. They are not all the same from track to track (like dirt, like turf), but they maintain a bit more similarity day to day at a particular track vs dirt (my impression). It's just another track idiosyncrasy to learn. I was thinking today, that if you closed your eyes, you wouldn't know if it were a dirt or synthetic surface race. I like it - bigger fields, bigger handle, bigger payoffs if you find the overlooked horse.

I suspect my opinion is the minority

[geeker2]

Bet everything Peter Miller is sending out..the barn is on fire!

[Scav]

Stay Away!!!

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Scav

Stay Away!!!

I agree. Going to take me awhile before I pull the trigger and make any large wagers.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The jury is still is out on a lot of things, however, these races are just very ugly.

People tend to forget that the vast majority of the most important races in this country, are run at route distances on the main track.

They ran no such races like that on opening day. Take a look at what happened in the four route races over the polytrack run on todays card. The first four of the meet.

* The first of two 10K claimers for different sexes. The fillies division (Race #1) was won by Zee Topper, who came from 13 lengths off the pace after a half mile, to win going away by almost five lengths. The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race.

* In the second race, a 7/1 shot is allowed an uncontested 3.5 length lead, through very comfortable fractions of 48 for the half mile. Over a natural dirt surface, this would be your protypical "once in a lifetime dream trip." Said horse is run down late, through a soft 26.70 final 1/4 mile fraction.

(Pause it) - Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible."

* Now It's time for the 10K claiming male division. All the jockeys and horseman make their adjustments. A 5/2 favorite is allowed to lead through very soft fractions of 25 flat and 50 flat. He finishes 8th in a field of 9. Meanwhile, the horses racing last and 2nd to last respectively, after a half mile, rally to finish 1st and 2nd at odds of 66/1 and 9/2. They make a $875.60 exacta.

That's right, horses close from 9th and 8th, into the teeth of 25 and 50 fractions, and make a 437/1 shot exacta.

* Now comes the feature, A $75,000 ALW race for older males. In other words, very good horses. A winner comes from mid-pack, the fractions are 25.62 and 50.73. The final time for 8.5 furlongs was 1:46.98

Buy hey, at least they're not pulling around sulkys and racing in single file...

I only wagered on the first three races on opening day and had great success.

Hopefully the track will favor people like me who can't handicap.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The jury is still is out on a lot of things, however, these races are just very ugly.

People tend to forget that the vast majority of the most important races in this country, are run at route distances on the main track.

They ran no such races like that on opening day. Take a look at what happened in the four route races over the polytrack run on todays card. The first four of the meet.

* The first of two 10K claimers for different sexes. The fillies division (Race #1) was won by Zee Topper, who came from 13 lengths off the pace after a half mile, to win going away by almost five lengths. The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race.

* In the second race, a 7/1 shot is allowed an uncontested 3.5 length lead, through very comfortable fractions of 48 for the half mile. Over a natural dirt surface, this would be your protypical "once in a lifetime dream trip." Said horse is run down late, through a soft 26.70 final 1/4 mile fraction.

(Pause it) - Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible."

* Now It's time for the 10K claiming male division. All the jockeys and horseman make their adjustments. A 5/2 favorite is allowed to lead through very soft fractions of 25 flat and 50 flat. He finishes 8th in a field of 9. Meanwhile, the horses racing last and 2nd to last respectively, after a half mile, rally to finish 1st and 2nd at odds of 66/1 and 9/2. They make a $875.60 exacta.

That's right, horses close from 9th and 8th, into the teeth of 25 and 50 fractions, and make a 437/1 shot exacta.

* Now comes the feature, A $75,000 ALW race for older males. In other words, very good horses. A winner comes from mid-pack, the fractions are 25.62 and 50.73. The final time for 8.5 furlongs was 1:46.98

Buy hey, at least they're not pulling around sulkys and racing in single file...

That sums up my first thought on watching the 7th.

[philcski]

Looks like Keeneland all over again. Total JUNK.

Too bad because I truly love wagering on Del Mar, and will be making my first trip ever there on Saturday...

[Zaf]

Nakatani seems to be hot .

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by philcski

Looks like Keeneland all over again. Total JUNK.

Too bad because I truly love wagering on Del Mar, and will be making my first trip ever there on Saturday...

My recommendation for a first trip to Del Mar is to not take the wagering too seriously. Just soak up the atmosphere, and play the races without getting too serious on the cash invested.

Del Mar is too special of an experience to have "marred" by regretted lost wagers. That was my tactic in my days there last August.....played fun and light. Last day I opened the wallet a little wider after I had already chalked the trip up to "great."

http://www.bullysdelmar.com/

I truly have no vested interest in this place, but if one likes to have tasty dinners and appetizers in an ultra casual atmosphere up until midnight, I highly recommend. Hungry one night about 11PM, my wife and I ventured in. With a glass of Napa cabernet, the sauteed mushrooms and onion soup really hit the spot. My wife raved about her very reasonably priced steak. Besides the good food, there is a very appropriate amount of "horsey stuff" in the decor.

Makes me wanna go back down there!

[Riot]

The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race.

Can we compare times on turf to times on dirt? Times at Kee (old dirt surface) to times for same distance at Calder?

Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible."

Yes - they found out they didn't have as much horse as they thought Happens every first Saturday in May, too ....

Cannon made a comment last Polythread, I believe, thought he said his impression training was that horses do not tire over it as readily as dirt (opposite of what I think I observe)

We're speed-crazy (2-year-old in training sales supports this contention). Look at the times for all distances over the past 100 years, how they improved to a certain extent, then stayed relatively stagnant.

It's not how fast you run, what matters is that you are fastest that race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Riot

Can we compare times on turf to times on dirt? Times at Kee (old dirt surface) to times for same distance at Calder?

When you compare that 47 1/5th fraction (FOR 10K CLAIMING FILLIES!) to the 50 3/5th fraction (for older males in a 75K ALW race) --- you are comparing fractions run on the same day over the same track.

Please explain to me what on earth you are talking about in that quote?

[Riot]

Please explain to me what on earth you are talking about in that quote?

Absolute raw time is not that important to my handicapping.

Edit: that statement is as overtly simplistic as it seems, DrugS, in the sense that I don't particularly care what raw times are - I just want to find the fastest horse that day, that track. The discussions by the professional figure makers (Brown, Beyer, etc) last year regarding how they were going to deal with artificial surfaces within the context of their figure making are obviously critical to those of us who use those products.

[wigmore]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The jury is still is out on a lot of things, however, these races are just very ugly.

People tend to forget that the vast majority of the most important races in this country, are run at route distances on the main track.

They ran no such races like that on opening day. Take a look at what happened in the four route races over the polytrack run on todays card. The first four of the meet.

* The first of two 10K claimers for different sexes. The fillies division (Race #1) was won by Zee Topper, who came from 13 lengths off the pace after a half mile, to win going away by almost five lengths. The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race.

* In the second race, a 7/1 shot is allowed an uncontested 3.5 length lead, through very comfortable fractions of 48 for the half mile. Over a natural dirt surface, this would be your protypical "once in a lifetime dream trip." Said horse is run down late, through a soft 26.70 final 1/4 mile fraction.

(Pause it) - Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible."

* Now It's time for the 10K claiming male division. All the jockeys and horseman make their adjustments. A 5/2 favorite is allowed to lead through very soft fractions of 25 flat and 50 flat. He finishes 8th in a field of 9. Meanwhile, the horses racing last and 2nd to last respectively, after a half mile, rally to finish 1st and 2nd at odds of 66/1 and 9/2. They make a $875.60 exacta.

That's right, horses close from 9th and 8th, into the teeth of 25 and 50 fractions, and make a 437/1 shot exacta.

* Now comes the feature, A $75,000 ALW race for older males. In other words, very good horses. A winner comes from mid-pack, the fractions are 25.62 and 50.73. The final time for 8.5 furlongs was 1:46.98

Buy hey, at least they're not pulling around sulkys and racing in single file...

47 1/5 is very fast for polytrack comparing it to the rest of the routes on the card. Most of the sprints on day 1 had comparable 47 and change 4f splits. No wonder the winner rallied form dead last. You have to stop comparing the splits on this track to splits on a normal track saying 47 is soft because it was soft on dirt or 26 change is a soft late fraction because it was soft on dirt.. Compare apples to apples.

in the second race that 48 change split looks fairly swift when compared to other races on the card and that early leader was only beaten a fraction.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by wigmore

47 1/5 is very fast for polytrack comparing it to the rest of the routes on the card. Most of the sprints on day 1 had comparable 47 and change 4f splits. No wonder the winner rallied form dead last. You have to stop comparing the splits on this track to splits on a normal track saying 47 is soft because it was soft on dirt or 26 change is a soft late fraction because it was soft on dirt.. Compare apples to apples.

You, and a few others in this thread need to develop better reading comprehension skills.


I didn't compare the splits on that track to any other track...I compared it with the splits in other route races throughout the day.

I'm seriously done with this.

I'm not going to keep explaining this over and over to people who don't bother to finish reading.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You, and a few others in this thread need to develop better reading comprehension skills.


I didn't compare the splits on that track to any other track...I compared it with the splits in other route races throughout the day.
I'm seriously done with this.

I'm not going to keep explaining this over and over to people who don't bother to finish reading.

What conclusion did you draw from your pace analysis of those races?

You said the races were ugly, I'm curious what that means. I'm being honest when I say that to me, it seems that the races are being called ugly only because your traditonal pace analysis methods do not shed any light on the outcome, that they are the wrong tool. I don't know why that makes the races ugly, it might mean that a different tool is required. no?

[Riot]

I'm at the computer, but don't have the time now to search it out right now - does anybody have the stats as published in the trade mags regarding Keeneland, Turfway, Arlington? Times/racing styles for their last dirt year vs. first poly year?

[wigmore]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You, and a few others in this thread need to develop better reading comprehension skills.


I didn't compare the splits on that track to any other track...I compared it with the splits in other route races throughout the day.

I'm seriously done with this.

I'm not going to keep explaining this over and over to people who don't bother to finish reading.

I think its you who need to brush up on your reading skills.. What I said was that you were deciding what fractions were slow or not by comparing with those fractions run on a dirt track. You said 47 and change was genuine and 48 change would have been a once in lifetime set up on a dirt track. Who cares what 48 change would mean on a dirt track in this case?

47 change for the 10k claimers was not a "genuine" fraction as you said but in fact lighning fast compared to others on the day (and also the sprints from Day 1) and the horse who was second through those lightening splits was not beaten all that far.

The 2nd race the pace "very comfortable fractions of 48 for the half mile."
Now if that had been a dirt race as you admit it would have been disheartening to see that easly leader lose but this is not dirt and 48 change seems like a farily swift pace compared to other routes on the day. Spanish Bandit who was that pace setter had faded just ad badly on her turf race prior and had faield to last vs much weaker at Pleasanton. Is it a suprise that after moderate (maybe even fast fractions) that he faded yesterday? You could argue that he held on much better today than in either of his prior routes


PS before this arguement gets too heated you should know that you know me from another place