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  #1  
Old 07-03-2007, 08:45 PM
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justindew justindew is offline
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Default Guaranteed Pools

Seeing over $7MM dumped into the Hollywood Pick 6 pool in one day makes me wonder why tracks don't try offering more frequent, large guaranteed pools.

I still say Street Sense is only 50/50 to race again, by the way.
  #2  
Old 07-03-2007, 08:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
Seeing over $7MM dumped into the Hollywood Pick 6 pool in one day makes me wonder why tracks don't try offering more frequent, large guaranteed pools.

I still say Street Sense is only 50/50 to race again, by the way.
they are a adv ploy by tracks ..to get people interested..they dont over estimate what is going into the pools anyway..basicly what the totals would be anyway..they dont take gas so to speak...and street wins the bc classic
  #3  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
Seeing over $7MM dumped into the Hollywood Pick 6 pool in one day makes me wonder why tracks don't try offering more frequent, large guaranteed pools.

I still say Street Sense is only 50/50 to race again, by the way.
Calder is offering a $500,000 Guarantee Pick 5 on SOS day. It will reach 750k easily. It's a $2.00 bet w/ a mandatory payout. IIRC it had paid 30k+ three out of the last four years. They canceled the guarantee the year of the hurricane, They knew it wouldn't reach 500k. You know where I'll be if you want to partner a ticket.
  #4  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
Seeing over $7MM dumped into the Hollywood Pick 6 pool in one day makes me wonder why tracks don't try offering more frequent, large guaranteed pools.

I still say Street Sense is only 50/50 to race again, by the way.
Guaranteed pools are a con to make the bettors think they'll get a bigger payout than with a non-guaranteed pool. What's the advantage of playing a guaranteed pool?
  #5  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Guaranteed pools are a con to make the bettors think they'll get a bigger payout than with a non-guaranteed pool. What's the advantage of playing a guaranteed pool?
zero..................
  #6  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Guaranteed pools are a con to make the bettors think they'll get a bigger payout than with a non-guaranteed pool. What's the advantage of playing a guaranteed pool?
The advantage CAN BE that the pool generates a shortfall of the guaranteed amount and the track makes up the balance which can effectively eliminate a portion of the takeout. If there's a $500,000 guarantee and only $400,000 gets bet by the public, that's a 25% bonus in the pool as added by the guarantor. If takeout is 25% on the bet, it's been negated by the money the track put up.

Read Crist's piece from last week after the triple track P6 day... He addresses a tangental element of this discussion.
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  #7  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:46 PM
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do you agree that this happens rarely.........
  #8  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
do you agree that this happens rarely.........
I have no idea of the frequency... Andrew will know.
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  #9  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:51 PM
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Where Is Moe Green....lol
  #10  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:58 PM
robfla robfla is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
I have no idea of the frequency...

I've seen it happen at Calder at least once. It was like eliminating the takeout.

However, no one knows when it will fall short until all the bets are in, so you don't know when you have an advantage.

It usually falls short on a day of very inclement weather.
  #11  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
do you agree that this happens rarely.........
I would guess rarely.

It just turned into a big rich man's lottery.
It happens in almost every State lottery. Once that amount starts turning over a number of times, everyone and their mother plays. But in racing the advantage goes to the guys that can cover the permutations. Hope for chalk on these days.
  #12  
Old 07-03-2007, 10:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Guaranteed pools are a con to make the bettors think they'll get a bigger payout than with a non-guaranteed pool. What's the advantage of playing a guaranteed pool?
I never said there was an advantage, per se. But with wagers like the Pick 6 and maybe the Pick 4, bigger pools give you a chance at a bigger score. There is no way that the Pick 6 at Hollywood yesterday would have paid $500,000 on a regular day because there would not have been that much in the pool.

Also, I refuse to take actual action on my Street Sense prediction because I swore not to bet on horses until Travers Day.....unless there is a big Pick 6 carryover.
  #13  
Old 07-04-2007, 10:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew

Also, I refuse to take actual action on my Street Sense prediction because I swore not to bet on horses until Travers Day.....unless there is a big Pick 6 carryover.
Actually you added the Pick 6 carryover after the fact. Why not modify your announcement to take action on your ridiculous claim about Street Sense?

Nvmd...don't answer that.
  #14  
Old 07-04-2007, 11:00 AM
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[quote=Pillow Pants]Actually you added the Pick 6 carryover after the fact. QUOTE]


Yes, I know. Hence the ".........". Does anyone on this board understand self-deprecation?
  #15  
Old 07-04-2007, 11:04 AM
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[quote=justindew]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
Actually you added the Pick 6 carryover after the fact. QUOTE]


Yes, I know. Hence the ".........". Does anyone on this board understand self-deprecation?
I understand that you're a chump who has no accountability. Not that i'd expect anything less from a blogger.
  #16  
Old 07-04-2007, 12:17 PM
unassailable08 unassailable08 is offline
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When it comes to guaranteed pools I look at em Like I would a guaranteed pool in Poker like an online tourney

It lets you know how much is going to be in it while it could also be more.

So take it with a grain of salt I say.
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  #17  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
Seeing over $7MM dumped into the Hollywood Pick 6 pool in one day makes me wonder why tracks don't try offering more frequent, large guaranteed pools.

I still say Street Sense is only 50/50 to race again, by the way.

want to take action on this comment?
  #18  
Old 07-04-2007, 07:33 AM
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.....as I was saying.....

(Beyer's latest column)

Big jackpots are racing's best stimulant
By ANDREW BEYER

WASHINGTON - It is easy to cite evidence that American Thoroughbred racing is in moribund condition. Attendance at great tracks is often pathetic; when 3,000 people rattle around cavernous Belmont Park, the atmosphere is dispiriting. Public interest and media coverage of the sport has dwindled for all but a few big races....

AVAILABLE ON DRF TO DRF PLUS SUBSCRIBERS:
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=86363

Last edited by Kasept : 07-04-2007 at 11:20 AM.
  #19  
Old 07-04-2007, 10:42 AM
jpops757 jpops757 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
.....as I was saying.....

(Beyer's latest column)

Big jackpots are racing's best stimulant
By ANDREW BEYER

WASHINGTON - It is easy to cite evidence that American Thoroughbred racing is in moribund condition. Attendance at great tracks is often pathetic; when 3,000 people rattle around cavernous Belmont Park, the atmosphere is dispiriting. Public interest and media coverage of the sport has dwindled for all but a few big races.
I would guess the BIG Ticket players that hit the big one ,had probably six or more 5of 6 consolation tickets. Just looking at the last race. How many horses did the winners have covered? Iwould say noone had Valdivilas firster in the top three, While I didnt have anything close to a winner I did have the last leg but onlu after going 5 deep. The horse looked like a nice one but win early was a big negative

Last edited by Kasept : 07-04-2007 at 11:17 AM.
  #20  
Old 07-04-2007, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpops757
I would guess the BIG Ticket players that hit the big one ,had probably six or more 5of 6 consolation tickets.

More than that. When you hit 6 of 6, you also have 5 of 6 one time for every losing horse on your ticket. So, if you play a 3x3x4x2x2x3 Pick 6 ticket, and hit 6 of 6, you also have 5 of 6 11 times.
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