Trainer Cycles

[Downthestretch55]

I'll preface this by saying "bet the horse, not the jockey, not the trainer."

OK, that said, and I'm not talking long term, but I've noticed that some trainer's barns get hot.
Some might know that I have tons of repect for Jim Jerkens. When he puts one out, I pay attention.
So, for example, there were times when he was doing not so well.
Lately, (since Corinthian in the Met Mile) I've watched his runners.
On Friday in the 8th at Belmont, Partita was the winner.
On Saturday, he put two in, Memphis Mon in the 3rd and Jack's Express (the one I tipped to ya Mera) in the 9th. Both winners.

To me, and I'm sure there will be many that disagree, it seems that a trainer has lots of success after a cold spell. That's my opinion, not reflected in overall win percentages, as it's short term.
Some trainers that seem to be "heating up" are Contessa, Frankel, and Dutrow.
Again, nothing in "stone" on this, just my opinion. And remember, "bet the horse, not the jockey, not the trainer." And watch for a barn that's heating up.

DTS

I can't figure out Kristin Mulhall's cycle. I think it's unpredictable, but i'm not sure. Maybe someone else knows. Thoughts?

[ShadowRoll]

Many here might already know this, but The Handicapper's Edge site from Brisnet.com has a feature called "at a glance" that details (for several tracks but not every track) up-to-date payout averages, track biases (or at least the winning percentages of gate-to-wire winners and the relative success of different running styles at different distances) and "hot" trainers and jocks.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Many here might already know this, but The Handicapper's Edge site from Brisnet.com has a feature called "at a glance" that details (for several tracks but not every track) up-to-date payout averages, track biases (or at least the winning percentages of gate-to-wire winners and the relative success of different running styles at different distances) and "hot" trainers and jocks.

Thanks Shadow.
So, who are your "hot" trainers?

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

So, who are your "hot" trainers?

I don't totally discount the "hot barn" theory, because I'm a strong believer in cycles, but unless I also know that the trainer just got a new, more capable assistant, or that the trainer just picked up a new, wealthier owner (and now has better stock), or that the trainer just got married (or has some other reason to approach his or her job with renewed enthusiasm), I tend to use "hot" status only as a tie-breaker if I'm stuck on who to back.

Also, a trainer might have won 10 out of his last 15 starts, but without taking the time to go back and look at those races, I can't give this statistic much weight. If the 10 he won were all claimers, and the 5 he lost were all maiden races, and I'm capping a maiden race today, the trainer's "hotness" is pretty much irrelevant.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

I don't totally discount the "hot barn" theory, because I'm a strong believer in cycles, but unless I also know that the trainer just got a new, more capable assistant, or that the trainer just picked up a new, wealthier owner (and now has better stock), or that the trainer just got married (or has some other reason to approach his or her job with renewed enthusiasm), I tend to use "hot" status only as a tie-breaker if I'm stuck on who to back.

Also, a trainer might have won 10 out of his last 15 starts, but without taking the time to go back and look at those races, I can't give this statistic much weight. If the 10 he won were all claimers, and the 5 he lost were all maiden races, and I'm capping a maiden race today, the trainer's "hotness" is pretty much irrelevant.

Shadow,
You have put out insightful stuff. Thanks.
I'm not disagreeing with you.
As I said earlier, it's "short term".
An old surfer guy once told me, "Catch the wave, ride it out."
I'd be interested to hear what others think.
Again, thanks for your input.

[ShadowRoll]

On the other hand...Michael Catalano, Jr.

[DaTruth]

I noticed that some trainers will go on a streak, usually at the beginning or the middle of a meet. It seldom seems to happen at the end of the meet. Why it happens, who knows. Maybe a cough had gone through the barn and set the horses back, or it took awhile for the barn to settle in after shipping. I have noticed that when a barn is in the thick of the fight for a training title at a track, the barn will cool down after the meet ends. I see it almost every year when the Fall meet at CD ends and many of the stables winter at Fair Grounds.

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

I'll preface this by saying "bet the horse, not the jockey, not the trainer."

OK, that said, and I'm not talking long term, but I've noticed that some trainer's barns get hot.
Some might know that I have tons of repect for Jim Jerkens. When he puts one out, I pay attention.
So, for example, there were times when he was doing not so well.
Lately, (since Corinthian in the Met Mile) I've watched his runners.
On Friday in the 8th at Belmont, Partita was the winner.
On Saturday, he put two in, Memphis Mon in the 3rd and Jack's Express (the one I tipped to ya Mera) in the 9th. Both winners.

To me, and I'm sure there will be many that disagree, it seems that a trainer has lots of success after a cold spell. That's my opinion, not reflected in overall win percentages, as it's short term.
Some trainers that seem to be "heating up" are Contessa, Frankel, and Dutrow.
Again, nothing in "stone" on this, just my opinion. And remember, "bet the horse, not the jockey, not the trainer." And watch for a barn that's heating up.

DTS