Teammate in Mother Goose

Scav · #1 06-29-2006, 04:13 PM

What will her odds be? Bushfire is going to take action and so is Lemons Forever...Both are very vunerable as Lemon's Forever couldn't have asked for a better set up last time and all these insane efforts from Bushfire have to take their toll soon or later, wheeling back this quick says no play for Scav.

She's Excellent, no shot, I question if Joint Effort will get 9 panels and Shug putting Pine Island in this race tells me he thinks it is wide open

3/1 on Teammate?

SentToStud · #2 06-29-2006, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

What will her odds be? Bushfire is going to take action and so is Lemons Forever...Both are very vunerable as Lemon's Forever couldn't have asked for a better set up last time and all these insane efforts from Bushfire have to take their toll soon or later, wheeling back this quick says no play for Scav.

She's Excellent, no shot, I question if Joint Effort will get 9 panels and Shug putting Pine Island in this race tells me he thinks it is wide open

3/1 on Teammate?

I've been playing Busfire ever since her Tampa race. No reason to stop now. She done me right.

Betsy · #3 06-29-2006, 04:24 PM

I love those AP Indys, but she really ran horribly in the Acorn, with absolutely no excuse. I don't see her running well at all, unfortunately

SCUDSBROTHER · #4 06-29-2006, 06:19 PM

They find an excuse for the pathetic Acorn effort,or is she just another 3 year old filly that doesn't give a sht? And you wonder why I like a horse like Jazil? A horse like Lit de Justice? Horses that go to f'n work,and leave it on the track.All of it.

Gander · #5 06-29-2006, 06:30 PM

In my opinion, Teammate was very hard to love in the Acorn, off that kind of layoff basically sprinting, especially at a shorter than deserved price. She needs more ground and she needs to be on the lead. Even with a perfect break (which I dont think she got) she would have been hard pressed to outsprint both Bushfire (who has learned to rate) and Hello Liberty (fast sprinter). Not saying she was "impossible" in that spot, but 9/2 was ridiculously low per her chances at winning that race.

She will be much better this time around, gets a race (albeit a very bad one) under her belt and gets an extra furlong. Plus she will most likely be hard sent from the rail in a race that lacks any real sprinting speed.

Look for her to be 1-2 in this race, certainly cant see her being any worse than that.

I absolutely hate Lemons forever in this spot for all the reasons Oracle provided in a different thread.

SCUDSBROTHER · #6 06-29-2006, 07:10 PM

Gander,by your own admission,you're in heavy credit card debt.So,why would anybody give a sht about what you think about a horse's chances to win a race that has already been run?You do that an awful lot.The point was not that she was a great bet that day.The point is she didn't try that day.

#7 06-30-2006, 07:54 AM

Greetings from floodland. Have been away at in the town where my grandmothers live and havent had any pc acess. Hopped on this morning at my cousins house. Hope everyone is doing well.
Tim I think what Scuds is trying to say is that the very often you critique a horses performance based upon its odds. This has no relationship in analyzing how a horse ran whatsoever, none. I simply see no correlation in how a horse ran and the odds it went off at. Once a race is over you simply review how each horse ran and critique it. Whether or not Teammate was a good bet that day is a completly seperate argument. Teammate simply refused to try that day for whatever reason.

Gander · #8 06-30-2006, 08:16 AM

I forgot who it was, somebody on this board or somebody at the track that day said Teammate may have been bothered by that craziness going on in the gate when Wonder Lady Anne and Miraculous Miss got scratched. Could make sense.

But regardless of the odds, I think Teammate is better going 2 turns. Thats just my opinion. I like her big time tomorrow. Jerken's horses are all running lights out and he says she is training beautifully since that awfully dull Acorn.

#9 06-30-2006, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Greetings from floodland. Have been away at in the town where my grandmothers live and havent had any pc acess. Hopped on this morning at my cousins house. Hope everyone is doing well.
Tim I think what Scuds is trying to say is that the very often you critique a horses performance based upon its odds. This has no relationship in analyzing how a horse ran whatsoever, none. I simply see no correlation in how a horse ran and the odds it went off at. Once a race is over you simply review how each horse ran and critique it. Whether or not Teammate was a good bet that day is a completly seperate argument. Teammate simply refused to try that day for whatever reason.

Very good point by Oracle and Scuds. People often combine a past performance with a horses odds. The two dont have a thing in common. This is why race replays are the best handicapping tool in all of sports.

Now to the Acorn.....Lemons Forver--NOT A CHANCE IN HECK. This horse needs to be in two turn races. The horse should like the track but needs two turns. Bushfire has that extra furlong and I wouldnt touch her at all for the win in this race. Teamate looks good to me. I can forgive her last race. But the horse I am interested in is Joint Effort.

#10 06-30-2006, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Very good point by Oracle and Scuds. People often combine a past performance with a horses odds. The two dont have a thing in common. This is why race replays are the best handicapping tool in all of sports.

Now to the Acorn.....Lemons Forver--NOT A CHANCE IN HECK. This horse needs to be in two turn races. The horse should like the track but needs two turns. Bushfire has that extra furlong and I wouldnt touch her at all for the win in this race. Teamate looks good to me. I can forgive her last race. But the horse I am interested in is Joint Effort.

Agree with everything you said, including Joint Effort.
Tim what the public thought a horse would do has no place in a discussion about how a horse ran. And I think that where it makes no sense is when you will say that so and so is a rat after losing at short odds narrowly and that so and so ran huge in the same type of effort because of the odds. Would Barbaro's Derby have been more impressive if he was 20-1 or less impressive if he was 3-5? I think that a race is a race, and the odds have nothing to do with it whatsoever.

#11 06-30-2006, 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Agree with everything you said, including Joint Effort.
Tim what the public thought a horse would do has no place in a discussion about how a horse ran. And I think that where it makes no sense is when you will say that so and so is a rat after losing at short odds narrowly and that so and so ran huge in the same type of effort because of the odds. Would Barbaro's Derby have been more impressive if he was 20-1 or less impressive if he was 3-5? I think that a race is a race, and the odds have nothing to do with it whatsoever.

You know Oracle--it cracks me up when I watch people handicap a race by first looking at the m'l odds or what the current odds are. Now, current odds are important to me in a race where there are some first time starters. But I usually handicap a race out of the DRF. Then I give the horses my own odds. Most of the time, I could care less what the betting public thinks.

Gander · #12 06-30-2006, 08:30 AM

For the 9th team I said I didnt like Teammate 2 days before the Acorn without any knowledge or any guess what the odds may have been. Someone piss in your cheerios this morning?

If she was 10/1 I still wouldnt have played her. For the record I got burnt when Hello Libert lost the close finish but I did use Bushfire in the picks.

GenuineRisk · #13 07-02-2006, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You know Oracle--it cracks me up when I watch people handicap a race by first looking at the m'l odds or what the current odds are. Now, current odds are important to me in a race where there are some first time starters. But I usually handicap a race out of the DRF. Then I give the horses my own odds. Most of the time, I could care less what the betting public thinks.

That's so interesting Eurobounce- in my handicapping learning curve, I've discovered I also can't look at the odds or I start to get influenced. I actually prefer to download the PPs and not even buy the DRF in paper because I can get affected by what the experts think. Odds should affect only whether I bet the race or not, not who I think will win it.

And it sucks having no time to handicap the G1 contest on the other board... I'm getting smacked upside and down over there... ah well, life intervenes sometimes.

SCUDSBROTHER · #14 06-30-2006, 08:30 AM

Gander,I apologize if I was rude.Part of what you originally wrote is useful stuff

"She will be much better this time around, gets a race (albeit a very bad one) under her belt and gets an extra furlong. Plus she will most likely be hard sent from the rail in a race that lacks any real sprinting speed.

Look for her to be 1-2 in this race, certainly cant see her being any worse than that.

I absolutely hate Lemons forever in this spot for all the reasons Oracle provided in a different thread."

The part that is just useless to anybody is the following part(and I don't know why you do it,but you do it often)............

"In my opinion, Teammate was very hard to love in the Acorn, off that kind of layoff basically sprinting, especially at a shorter than deserved price. She needs more ground and she needs to be on the lead. Even with a perfect break (which I dont think she got) she would have been hard pressed to outsprint both Bushfire (who has learned to rate) and Hello Liberty (fast sprinter). Not saying she was "impossible" in that spot, but 9/2 was ridiculously low per her chances at winning that race. "

Gander · #15 06-30-2006, 08:43 AM

The part that is just useless to anybody is the following part(and I don't know why you do it,but you do it often)............

Yes, as useless as you bringing my credit card debt into the discussion having to with Teammate.

SCUDSBROTHER · #16 06-30-2006, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Greetings from floodland. Have been away at in the town where my grandmothers live and havent had any pc acess. Hopped on this morning at my cousins house. Hope everyone is doing well.
Tim I think what Scuds is trying to say is that the very often you critique a horses performance based upon its odds. This has no relationship in analyzing how a horse ran whatsoever, none. I simply see no correlation in how a horse ran and the odds it went off at. Once a race is over you simply review how each horse ran and critique it. Whether or not Teammate was a good bet that day is a completly seperate argument. Teammate simply refused to try that day for whatever reason.

Well,a ton of us play pick 3,4 or 6.We don't care as much about what they pay to win.It helps,but we are trying to get through these races.I don't think many singled Teammate,but I don't think many could leave her off a ticket either.

#17 06-30-2006, 09:02 AM

And Tim friend to friend it doesnt help that you call every horse a rat who loses as the fave or start money burning rat thread. Sometimes people here have keyed those horses in pik-3's and they really don't need to here that after a race. Like Scuds ays, in pik-3's or pik-4's you are looking for singles sometimes. Noone I know would ever bet a horse to win at 3-5 but many may single it. The last thing they wanna hear after that is a nickname like Wanna Rat. It doesnt really sound that cute to guys who just lost a pik-3 play.
Now I know you dont mean anything by it, but I have known you 18 years, not everyone else here has.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #18 06-30-2006, 09:04 AM

nothing wrong with getting a lock 3/5 to key p3/4s super ect on ..
my 2c

Pointg5 · #19 06-30-2006, 09:05 AM

Would anyone be so kind to tell me, because I can't pull it up at work, if the p4 starts with the 6 or 7th race tomorrow at Bel. It would save me some time and I am under a great deal of pressure, nobody knows(kentness)...

#20 06-30-2006, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Would anyone be so kind to tell me, because I can't pull it up at work, if the p4 starts with the 6 or 7th race tomorrow at Bel. It would save me some time and I am under a great deal of pressure, nobody knows(kentness)...

7th race chief.