Cowtown Cat......

[wac]

I am in process of going thru horses and i have seen this one run 2x and have to admit that i liked what i saw. The race at Aqu he split horses coming out of turn 4 (nascar talk, sorry) and im under the impression that is unusual for all but the gamest horses to do that. The race inIll i know wasn't fast and he got to ride the rail but i took away that when they came out of turn 4 Jara got on him and he seemed to increase the lead. I dont know any opinions would be appreciated, am i just totally lost and my eyes are decieving me or could this horse jump up and run a big one on 5/5.Thanks

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by wac

I am in process of going thru horses and i have seen this one run 2x and have to admit that i liked what i saw. The race at Aqu he split horses coming out of turn 4 (nascar talk, sorry) and im under the impression that is unusual for all but the gamest horses to do that. The race inIll i know wasn't fast and he got to ride the rail but i took away that when they came out of turn 4 Jara got on him and he seemed to increase the lead. I dont know any opinions would be appreciated, am i just totally lost and my eyes are decieving me or could this horse jump up and run a big one on 5/5.Thanks

You know, at first glance I tossed him, but after watching his races I do like him a little bit. He's part of my 'include' list rather than tosses at this point.

[JJP]

Definitely downgrade his Ill. Derby. He rode a strong rail bias w/a aid of a crawlfest pace. In other words, it was the absolute most perfect trip possible.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by JJP

Definitely downgrade his Ill. Derby. He rode a strong rail bias w/a aid of a crawlfest pace. In other words, it was the absolute most perfect trip possible.

good info to know, thanks. I don't follow hawthorne, so I wasn't aware of the bias.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by JJP

Definitely downgrade his Ill. Derby. He rode a strong rail bias w/a aid of a crawlfest pace. In other words, it was the absolute most perfect trip possible.

I'm struggling with the Illinois Derby, because the race was obviously bias-aided as the rail was golden and speed was golden that day.

But he still managed to come home pretty quick (as he should after those fractions) under pretty mild urging from Jara.

[JJP]

You have to play against those types. This is like Cobalt Blue coming off his slow paced win, but Cowtown Cat also had the benefit of the bias. He's not as good as he looks on paper, and horses often finish big after they've conserved their energy in the most efficient way. Bold Start ran a better race, IMO, and Reporting for Duty closed ground on the slow pace so Cowtown Cat realistically was no better than the 3rd best horse in that race, IMO.

[declansharbor]

Coming off of a dream trip in the Ill., he will not get things to go like that with 19 other horses vieing for position..Bold Start couldnt hold a flame to the guys he'll be facing 5/5/07.. Total regression is expected by me..

[Bystander]

If you're going to discount Cowtown Cat's Ill Derby, kind of have to do the same with his Gotham win where he rode the rail 95% of the time against soft fractions, don't you think? I find it hard to believe he'll get even a remotely similar kind of setup at CD.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Bystander

If you're going to discount Cowtown Cat's Ill Derby, kind of have to do the same with his Gotham win where he rode the rail 95% of the time against soft fractions, don't you think? I find it hard to believe he'll get even a remotely similar kind of setup at CD.

Exactly. The only thing better than betting against a horse off a perfect trip is a horse off two (or more) perfect trips. The slow early/fast late wire jobs in Derby preps not only not win or hit the board, they usually aren't in the top 10. If you have an offshore account and there's a matchup bet pitting a Cowtown Cat against maybe a Chelokee or Bold Start, definitely go against Cowtown Cat.