Real Derby Contenders

2Hot4TV · #1 04-13-2007, 06:18 PM

Any way I try to look at the Kentucky Derby Contenders I keep coming up with a replay of the Breeders Cup 2yo race.
Street Sense, Circular Quay at the top with Scat Daddy, No Biz right behind and followed by a bunch of pretenders to complete the field.

lemoncrush · #2 04-13-2007, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Any way I try to look at the Kentucky Derby Contenders I keep coming up with a replay of the Breeders Cup 2yo race.
Street Sense, Circular Quay at the top with Scat Daddy, No Biz right behind and followed by a bunch of pretenders to complete the field.

IF you look at the Breeders Juvy Futurity at Keenland last fall, and the Breeders Cup Juvy at Churchill right after, you'll see the same 3 horses in the trifecta.
I think Street Sense, Great Hunter and Circular Quay all have a great shot at hitting the board again in some order....

POINTGIVEN1985 · #3 04-13-2007, 06:40 PM

i'd say there are 4 real serious contenders and i'd be shocked if the winner wasent one of these 4

great hunter
street sense
nobiz
hard spun

And 1 outsider

tiago

MarkyD · #4 04-13-2007, 06:46 PM

I don't post here much, but I guess it's called Derby trail so it's time to stick your nose in.

I take my contenders and then look at their running styles. I then try and see how the race will unfold based on what type of horses are going. I feel like the big guns are closers this year. CQ, SS, GH. However I fear the fact that you will have those three off pace, with Tiago somewhere in there, when they decide to make their moves I fear them getting caught up with eachother. If the rail does not open up for one of them, then wide they go. So I am dropping the closers this year because I fear the horse I pick might be the one getting jammed/caght. At this point, NoBiz will be my pick. He will be up close, and he has somewhat of a push button around the turn. I fear his strech run, and he might get caught, but at least I know around the turn he will be there and that is good enough for me. I just want my pick to be in the race and have a shot, and I am positive he will be up with the leaders around the turn.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #5 04-13-2007, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkyD

I don't post here much, but I guess it's called Derby trail so it's time to stick your nose in.

I take my contenders and then look at their running styles. I then try and see how the race will unfold based on what type of horses are going. I feel like the big guns are closers this year. CQ, SS, GH. However I fear the fact that you will have those three off pace, with Tiago somewhere in there, when they decide to make their moves I fear them getting caught up with eachother. If the rail does not open up for one of them, then wide they go. So I am dropping the closers this year because I fear the horse I pick might be the one getting jammed/caght. At this point, NoBiz will be my pick. He will be up close, and he has somewhat of a push button around the turn. I fear his strech run, and he might get caught, but at least I know around the turn he will be there and that is good enough for me. I just want my pick to be in the race and have a shot, and I am positive he will be up with the leaders around the turn.

nobiz is 100% my bet, its been like that since last year for me, but if its not nobiz i think it will be one of the other horses i mentioned.

miraja2 · #6 04-13-2007, 07:05 PM

Only a few old-timers from the "old board" will know what I am talking about here but.....
The speculation about Derby horses can end NOW!! I have this great handicapping software that has made me trillions of dollars over the years and I have used it to determine the winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
That winner is.......CONGAREE!!!!

2Hot4TV · #7 04-13-2007, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Only a few old-timers from the "old board" will know what I am talking about here but.....
The speculation about Derby horses can end NOW!! I have this great handicapping software that has made me trillions of dollars over the years and I have used it to determine the winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
That winner is.......CONGAREE!!!!

Are we going to have the fortune teller again this year? What color is the saddle cloth and does the winners name have a geometric shape to it?

It's never to soon to look to the stars for the winner.

Danzig · #8 04-13-2007, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Only a few old-timers from the "old board" will know what I am talking about here but.....
The speculation about Derby horses can end NOW!! I have this great handicapping software that has made me trillions of dollars over the years and I have used it to determine the winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
That winner is.......CONGAREE!!!!

LMAO!!

ah, thanks for the trip down memory lane!!

Merlinsky · #9 04-14-2007, 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Only a few old-timers from the "old board" will know what I am talking about here but.....
The speculation about Derby horses can end NOW!! I have this great handicapping software that has made me trillions of dollars over the years and I have used it to determine the winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
That winner is.......CONGAREE!!!!

lmao, oh wow that brought back memories. Thanks.

There's 8 pages on this thread so I haven't gotten all the way through but I was just thinking about how interesting it is that the top 2yos are by and large still in one piece, talented, and competitive at age 3. I was looking at the horses that are off the trail and most of them weren't at the level of Street Sense, Nobiz, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, etc. as 2yos. The ones that dropped off, for the most part, just had promise but fulfillment was still relatively yet to come. I mean am I imagining things that this group seems to've held up better from age 2 to 3 than usual?

horseofcourse · #10 04-13-2007, 07:04 PM

I don't think there has been a real standout performance this year. It would be hard for me to discount any of these horses...

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Scat Daddy
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Curlin
Tiago
Hard Spun
Circular Quay
Notional
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat

and to a lesser extent even horses like

Dominican
Officer Rocket
Deadly Dealer

...dependant on what they do tomorrow.

I have no clue at this point. It has been a pretty non-descript Derby trail to this pont for me. Nothing stands out. If Street Sense or Great Hunter or Curlin run a big one tomorrow, they may stand out as that is the last big prep day.

AeWingnut · #11 04-13-2007, 07:41 PM

I won't bet any horse that has been off for 6 weeks +
let him beat me
I don't care

Street Sense has always been my horse. I can't go against but the one I will include is going to run 3rd in the Bluegrass and first in the Arkansas Derby

Thoroughbred Fan · #12 04-13-2007, 07:43 PM

Curlin will have you singing a different tune tomorrow. Bet on it.

Scav · #13 04-13-2007, 07:48 PM

If Notional has the lungs, he will have a HUGE shot to win with his style, they are going to get real stupid on the front end this year ago and Notional has the progressing sheet that you like to see

Cajungator26 · #14 04-13-2007, 07:52 PM

These are the horses I like for the derby as of now:

Scat Daddy
Notional
Great Hunter
Street Sense
Zanjero

AeWingnut · #15 04-13-2007, 07:52 PM

T-bred Fan.. I am so jealous of your Avatar. I need a copy of it to use as my wallpaper.
Curlin will make me want to bet him ? He'll have to get past For You Reppo first. I honeslty don't like the post for Curlin. There.. I found the chink in his armour. My friend that just keeps winning like Going Ballistic of all things
go figure

Cajungator26 · #16 04-13-2007, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

T-bred Fan.. I am so jealous of your Avatar. I need a copy of it to use as my wallpaper.
Curlin will make me want to bet him ? He'll have to get past For You Reppo first. I honeslty don't like the post for Curlin. There.. I found the chink in his armour. My friend that just keeps winning like Going Ballistic of all things
go figure

I don't like Curlin's last work... there's my knock.

Shoot, they may not even be running tomorrow if the storm system that they're expecting moves through. Supposed to be nasty tomorrow...

Danzig · #17 04-13-2007, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I don't like Curlin's last work... there's my knock.

Shoot, they may not even be running tomorrow if the storm system that they're expecting moves through. Supposed to be nasty tomorrow...

thunderstorms down here caj..of course i'm southeast of the track, so who knows what they have or will get tomorrow. i've heard several forecasts already for this area.

MarkyD · #18 04-13-2007, 08:02 PM

Notional makes me think of BlueGrassCat from last year. Sneaky good horse that has really done nothing wrong and looking at current live odds:

Pool Total: $49,442.06 Last Updated: 2007-04-13T20:57:14.531

Notional ML:15 Current:35.

Seems to be forgotten. for now.....

Thoroughbred Fan · #19 04-15-2007, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

T-bred Fan.. I am so jealous of your Avatar. I need a copy of it to use as my wallpaper.
Curlin will make me want to bet him ? He'll have to get past For You Reppo first. I honeslty don't like the post for Curlin. There.. I found the chink in his armour. My friend that just keeps winning like Going Ballistic of all things
go figure

I'll try to find the post where Pillow made the graphic, and Curlin is a monster. I tried to tell you.

AeWingnut · #20 04-15-2007, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

I'll try to find the post where Pillow made the graphic, and Curlin is a monster. I tried to tell you.

Thanks

I didn't even bet the Arkansas Derby

didn't have a dime by the time that race was run and it's a good thing cause I would have tossed Deadly Dealer from the trifecta. that track was so speed biased it was disgusting