Tiago's Beyers???

[eajinabi]

Can someone please tell me Tiago's Beyers by winning the SA derby??

[ultracapper]

100

[letswastemoney]

Hey you know Tiago can get the distance of the KY Derby since his brother Giacomo did it.

All the horses could be gasping for air in the stretch drive, while Tiago can just mow them down

[The Indomitable DrugS]

While he seems to have nicely inherited that same grinding style of Giacomo's.....I think people will be making a big mistake if they put too much emphsis on whoelse his dam dropped.

Giacomo actually ran several very good races leading into his Santa Anita Derby effort---where he got no pace to work with. Giacomo had only been passed by one single horse in his career going into the Derby, and he had an abysmal trip in that race, his 3rd place effort in the Sham.

Tiago, may have improved markedly (off his lousy form) with the removal of blinkers---but, he's going to have a lot more to run down in the Kentucky Derby than some Ohio-bred sprinter/miler type like King of the Roxy.

What's interesting about Giacomo and Tiago's dam---was that she (Set Them Free) was a confirmed sprinter. I believe she was 2nd in career debut to Champion Eliza...before winning a couple stakes at age two. She won five races in her career, four of them stake races, her average winning distance was just 5.8 furlongs.

[Kasept]

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

[MisterB]

So beyers are a piece of poop like I have always said.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Kasept

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

im very happy we agree on something

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Kasept

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

I tend to agree, I don't think you can ignore him. In any other year, yeah maybe. But I just do not see many performances this year where horses finish up strongly.

Also the SA Derby was run with an honest pace, not like the Sham.
He's got things working against him for sure, but not one I will be ignoring.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

I love Pleasant Tap too, it's great to see a sire with stamina and soundness. Premium Tap may end up being the "big horse" he needs to get more notariety.

Here's my issue with Tiago. He beat a miler (at best), a horse that's maybe 7th in his own barn, and a bunch of nobodies. Not to mention the horse that beat him easily in his last start got clobbered in a 2nd string prep at even money.

On top of that, I have an issue with the Beyer. There were 6 dirt races on Saturday:
MSW 3yo's at a mile 1:37.62
MSW 3U at 6.5F 1:17.34
G2 Potrero Grande at 6F 1:14.83
40k Optional claimer at 6F 1:08.87
40k Starter allowance at 6F 1:10.35

So by my calculations if the don't split the variant for 2 turns, a 100 Beyer in the SA Derby gives the Potrero Grande about a 121-122. Smokey is one fast beast but I'm not sure I'm buying that (and they actually gave him a 115 I think). The allowance would be in the 115 range, which also seems awfully high. I think the number should be more like a 94, not splitting the variant.

The one thing I can say positive is the consistent fractions analysis is very positive in determining a Derby winner and I'm sure he'll stay the 10F.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Kasept

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

I MUST disagree,Steve.This horse,Tiago ,had absolutely no part of these fractions at all.At the quarter,he was ninth out of ten horses,the half,still ninth,Three quarters,he moved to seventh,the stretch,he moved to fifth,obviously because the other horses were tiring.If you want to use these fractions,the horses who ran best were the ones who SET,or were a part of these fractions.That would be Liquidity,Sam P,King of the Roxy,and Black Seventeen.Tiago was nowhere to be found,and got lucky to inherit this win.It is completely foolish to think this horse has any shot whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby,and those of you who wager on this fluke win do so at your own risk!!!!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Tiago, may have improved markedly (off his lousy form) with the removal of blinkers---but, he's going to have a lot more to run down in the Kentucky Derby than some Ohio-bred sprinter/miler type like King of the Roxy.

.

I'm not really in love with this horse either, but I think the two he ran by could be decent horses especially with Pletcher's guidance and in the right spot. No idea what Sam P was doing up so close to the pace. Blinkers off next time?