3/22: Aqueduct (4th-9th)

[Kasept]

Still smarting from missing nice $800+ P4 at Gulfstream Wednesday after ignoring 8th race winner Tap Gold (5-1 ML, 7-2). Had the pricey horses in the 2nd and 4th legs, but Mark Hennig is not a guy we like to bet, and it cost us all some pretty nice multi-race scores... Grrr... Hope you were smarter than me and slipped Tap Gold into your plays or caught the nightcap triple which brough back almost $200.

Looking at Aqueduct Thursday as the weather improves and more and more strings begin to send horses up from Florida, always a potent angle at this juncture in the Big A winter meet winddown...

AQUEDUCT

4th: NYB-MDN CLM, 6f

1. #6 Humerus Alex 6-1 3rd
2. #3 Almost Persuaded 12-1
A. #8 Native Hall 5-2 2nd
B. #5 Belz 7-2


5th: CLM/N1Y, 6f SUPERFECTA

A very strange race.. Taking shots with prices..

1. #5 Babyifurgoodtogo 10-1 2nd
2. #8 Chopping Wood 30-1
A. #7 Embraceable You 6-1 3rd
B. #3 Sleeping 2-1


6th: MSW, 1m-70y SUPERFECTA

1. #2 Pleasant Rhapsody 3-1 WON
2. #3 Lippety Split 4-1 3rd
A. #1 LATE scratch
B. #9 scratched


7th: HCP/S, 6f

1. #5 Short Fuse Tara 7-2 2nd
2. #3 Just Starting 2-1 WON
A. #7 Chunk of Love 5-2 3rd
B. #1 Classic Example 10-1 4th


8th: OC/N1X, 1m-70y

1. #2 Rockaway Tod 2-1
2. #5 Foolish Bid 9-2
3. #4 Here to Please 5-1

LONGSHOT: #6 Reptilian Smarts 12-1 WON


9th: NYB-OC/N2X, 6f SUPERFECTA

1. #7 Executive Search 8-1
2. #5 scratched
A. #2 Trading Pro 5-2
B. #3 Energico 7-2

LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: #9 No Allegiance 15-1


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-3
7: 3-5
8: 2-5
9: 2-3-6-7-9

2x2x2x5 = $40


Good luck!
Steve

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Is there a reasson you dont like Marina Market in the 8th, i really thought he dug in last time and when i looked at this race last night i thought he could be a pick 4 single, just wondering if there is something specific that you dislike about him ?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

Is there a reasson you dont like Marina Market in the 8th, i really thought he dug in last time and when i looked at this race last night i thought he could be a pick 4 single, just wondering if there is something specific that you dislike about him ?

The type of horse you always want to try to beat. No better than any of the other major players in the race and sure to be bet down to a silly price. If he couldn't hang on to win that last one with :49.4/1:14.4 half and 3/4's, than he certainly can't here. There is plenty of speed signed on, and Rockaway Tod is better than him before the gates open. Can he win? I suppose.. Is he worth counting on at 3-2? No.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The type of horse you always want to try to beat. No better than any of the other major players in the race and sure to be bet down to a silly price. If he couldn't hang on to win that last one with :49.4/1:14.4 half and 3/4's, than he certainly can't here. There is plenty of speed signed on, and Rockaway Tod is better than him before the gates open. Can he win? I suppose.. Is he worth counting on at 3-2? No.

combined with a golden rail that he was on and still lost, i agree completely with your assesment. this horse is all "dressed up" on paper, and while he can win at 3/2 he certainly is not very strong.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

combined with a golden rail that he was on and still lost, i agree completely with your assesment. this horse is all "dressed up" on paper, and while he can win at 3/2 he certainly is not very strong.

And it's not like he lost to any steller specimin of a racehorse either. Way more reason to try to beat that one than to swallow a short price on a horse who couldn't get it done under perfect circumstances last out.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The type of horse you always want to try to beat. No better than any of the other major players in the race and sure to be bet down to a silly price. If he couldn't hang on to win that last one with :49.4/1:14.4 half and 3/4's, than he certainly can't here. There is plenty of speed signed on, and Rockaway Tod is better than him before the gates open. Can he win? I suppose.. Is he worth counting on at 3-2? No.

i definitly understand what your saying, but i think i'd rather key him there then leave him out totally, key him there then go deeper in some of the other wide open races in the pick 4 sequence i think the 6th and 7th are wide open and i wont feel comfortable going 2 deep in those, good luck to you today.....

[Rudeboyelvis]

Steve,
Trading Pro in the 9th...You've got him under a 20-1 and an 8-1...can you elaborate a bit? Thought he looked good here (possibly a single? )

BTW - It was truely a pleasure to make your acquaintance at Tampa last Saturday....What a day, What a Race!

Keep up the Great work!

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i definitly understand what your saying, but i think i'd rather key him there then leave him out totally, key him there then go deeper in some of the other wide open races in the pick 4 sequence i think the 6th and 7th are wide open and i wont feel comfortable going 2 deep in those, good luck to you today.....

you can certainly go that route of keying him but i think you see that horse as all or nothing and single him or toss him completely. He can win this race no doubt but isn't there more pace for him to deal with today and nothing he has done shows that he has a huge advantage over the field at 4/5 or so that he will be. His was buried by summer doldrums which is no disgrace but the horses behind him were horrible as well so what did that race mean, off that he was 2/5 with a zero pace race, got the soft trip everyone expected and lost with a bias. ouch, and that is the 4/5 we want? What about foolish bid who ran completely against a bias with a negative pace shape race where he was only beat 2 lengths. He will be about 7 times the price of marina market, and they are probably within a length of each other figure wise. Helios who ran a great third in that same race is entered at TP in the lanes end off the effort (not that he can win there) so it looks like a decent field.

I mean shouldn't the single have less questions at 4/5?

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i definitly understand what your saying, but i think i'd rather key him there then leave him out totally, key him there then go deeper in some of the other wide open races in the pick 4 sequence i think the 6th and 7th are wide open and i wont feel comfortable going 2 deep in those, good luck to you today.....

Thanks for pointing out where the bathroom is but I'll just piss here?

[Mortimer]

Note to myself:


Is that the same Dellinger???

Thought he was dead?

Could he also be Zodiac???

Must investigate and proceed with arrest for the criminal if same one...or ones.




Also:


Wrong thread again.

Must leave very fast.

(But copy A picks first.)

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Well heres my pick 4.....

Aqueduct Race #6 1,2,3/3,5/3/All...thats for $1

I also played Aqueduct Race #3 $40 win on #4 Point Missed

And Gulfstream Race #6 $40 win and place on #2 Vailid Notebook

Going to be at work for the rest of the day so those are the only plays, good luck everyone

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

you can certainly go that route of keying him but i think you see that horse as all or nothing and single him or toss him completely. He can win this race no doubt but isn't there more pace for him to deal with today and nothing he has done shows that he has a huge advantage over the field at 4/5 or so that he will be. His was buried by summer doldrums which is no disgrace but the horses behind him were horrible as well so what did that race mean, off that he was 2/5 with a zero pace race, got the soft trip everyone expected and lost with a bias. ouch, and that is the 4/5 we want? What about foolish bid who ran completely against a bias with a negative pace shape race where he was only beat 2 lengths. He will be about 7 times the price of marina market, and they are probably within a length of each other figure wise. Helios who ran a great third in that same race is entered at TP in the lanes end off the effort (not that he can win there) so it looks like a decent field.

I mean shouldn't the single have less questions at 4/5?

there is no way he will be 4-5, but i really have to get going good luck

just finally got to check my bets, and it looks like point missed wasent reaDY and finished last, that puts me down $40 for the day, but the aqueduct pick 4 and the valid notebook race are still to come, good luck all

[DJARUM]

LONGSHOT: #6 Reptilian Smarts 12-1 WON


Nice pick, that changed it up, Steve, like those longshots

[10 pnt move up]

what a horrid ride by smith, again that horse is worth a play back against a similar weak field.....and marina market was hardly bet at all which was a bit surprising.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

what a horrid ride by smith, again that horse is worth a play back against a similar weak field.....and marina market was hardly bet at all which was a bit surprising.

That ridiculous performance by Mike Smith was expensive for me.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i got crushed today........

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

what a horrid ride by smith, again that horse is worth a play back against a similar weak field.....and marina market was hardly bet at all which was a bit surprising.

Doesn't get my money anymore!!!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Great day for Pletcher at the Big A...two dead last finishes and a gate scratch! Gotta love the "Inner-track"!

[DJARUM]

Originally Posted by DJARUM

LONGSHOT: #6 Reptilian Smarts 12-1 WON


Nice pick, that changed it up, Steve, like those longshots

But, couldn't connect