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#1
10-09-2006, 10:52 AM
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Don't Look Amateurish By Falling Into The 4YO vs 3YO Trap
I posted this message on another thread ... but I also feel it's worthy of a thread of its own ...
People ... people ... people ... ... please don't fall into the amateurish trap of comparing performances by 4YOS to performances by 3YOS. All these folks who use the great races of Spectacular Bid or Seattle Slew or Dr. Fager as yardsticks for comparisons to Secretariat or Bernardini ... are falling into that silly trap. None of those three great horses did anything extraordinary as 3YOS ... all of their mindblowing races came as 4YOS. The 3YO Bernardini is every bit as good ... or in fact much better ... than the 3YO Spectacular Bid, Seattle Slew, or Dr. Fager. The 3YO Secretariat blew the wheels off any horse of any age. Only the evil doings of worldwide socialism prevented us from seeing even more sensational performances from him as a 4YO. Please ... don't make fools of yourselves by posting such nonsense again. 
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#2
10-09-2006, 11:03 AM
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 Bernardini is amazing.........
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#3
10-09-2006, 11:30 AM
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... you were a regular on the "other" forum ... ... so you know darn well that I was the first person on this planet ... back on March 7 ... to publicly state that Bernardini was a special colt and the most talented 3YO in the country. Me ... a Bernardini goo-goo? Hey ... I INVENTED Bernardini goo-gooism ... you and the rest ... as always ... merely attempt to flounder in my abundant wake.
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#4
10-09-2006, 11:36 AM
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Bobo,
I don't necessarily understand the point... There doesn't seem to be any reason NOT to compare Bernardini's exploits so far to Dr. Fager's (at three), or how about Damascus'? Actually, a horse at three he resembles a bit in terms of accomplishment might be Conquistador Cielo. Why can't comparisons be made through the respective career arcs?
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
10-09-2006, 11:50 AM
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Spectacular Bid was a great 3YO champion .... but he didn't set the world on fire then. Bernardini's 3YO campaign ... especially if he wins the BC Classic ... is at least as good ... if not better than ... Spectacular Bid's 3YO campaign ... ... and just as good or better than other great 3YOS ... like Damascus, Sword Dancer, Art And Letters, Buckpasser, Kelso, Bold Ruler, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, etc. ... ... as good or better than everyone other than Secretariat, Citation, and Man O' War. There have been 4YOS who had better records than Bernardini has this year ... but that's a false comparison. Let's wait to see what Bernardini does as a 4YO ... God/Allah and the Sheikh willing ... before making those comparisions. P.S. The best comparison to 3YO Bernardini would be Kelso ... a late-starting 3YO who swept everything in sight ... including defeating older horses ... in the Fall. Last edited by Bold Brooklynite : 10-09-2006 at 11:54 AM.
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#6
10-09-2006, 12:27 PM
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#7
10-09-2006, 02:30 PM
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citation beat the older and reigning horse of the year before he left florida--it was in february i believe, and months before 'big cy' won the triple crown. they don't make them like they used to!!
as for secretariat, he lost two of his three races against older. that's blowing wheels off??? seattle slew continued his unbeaten streak into and through the triple crown. bern lost his first start. i'll take the unbeaten tc winner, thanks very much.
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#8
10-09-2006, 11:36 AM
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theres another forum?
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#9
10-09-2006, 11:08 AM
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could you please go further in depth about how the 'evil doings of worldwide socialism' played a role in Secretariat's racing career?
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#10
10-09-2006, 11:21 AM
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Secretariat's owner ... C.T. Chenery ... died over the winter between Secretariat's 2YO and 3YO years. In 1973 ... there were still pre-Reagan, onerous socialist death taxes ... which the Chenery estate had to pay. The only way they could raise enough cash to pay the taxes was to syndicate Secretariat for stud. The family ... headed by Penny Chenery (Tweedy) ... wanted to race Secretariat as a 4YO ... but the breeding investors would only fork up if Secretariat were retired after his 3YO campaign. Secretariat was syndicated for a then-record $6 million ... BEFORE he raced as a 3YO. After his spectacular 3YO performances ... he could have been syndicated for $40 million. So ... the socialist death taxes screwed the Chenery family out of over $30 million dollars ... and screwed all of us out of seeing Secretariat race as a 4YO. It's 33 years later ... and I'm still seething over this. Another spectacularly stupid failure of socialism.
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#11
10-09-2006, 11:39 AM
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BB, you are correct sir and here are the stats from my data base of 110 or so champion racehorses going back to 1900.
Avg imp 3yo vs 2yo - 14 lengths (projected to 10fl) Avg imp 4&up vs 3yo - 4 lengths (projected to 10fl) About 70% of horses that went on to race as older horses improved their average running times. About half of the 30% that did not improve had injury related issues. In summary, there is a 70%-85% chance that a horse will improve as a 4yo by an average of 4 lengths as compared to his 3yo season. Here is the data on the specific horses you mentioned (4yo vs 3yo seasons): Slew - improved 4 lengths (projected to 10fl) Bid - improved 6.8 lengths (projected to 10fl) Fager - improved 5.6 lengths (projected to 10fl)
__________________
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