Betting ????

[wac]

I really liked kings silver son in the rebel and was surprised to see him at 17-1 as i didnt figure that assmusen was going for the heck of it. My problem was that i bet the race poorly and only got the place money out of it as i did not have the winner on top.My ? is when you have a horse like this at these odds to you wheel the fields above and below him in all 3 spots in the tri
9/all/all, all/9/all, all/all/9 same in ex 9/all, all/9 I just hate that i had what i thought was a good horse at good odds and since he didn't win no pk 3,4 plays were going on. Its just aggravating thats all to FINALLY have a good one picked out and really dont do anything with it. i guess this could get very expensive but i have got to figure something out b/c my head hurts from banging into the wall in my tv room.Any help is appreciated.thanks

[hockey2315]

you probably wouldn't have needed the all button to hit the tri if you keyed your horse in all three spots. . . it wouldn't be a terrible bet if you tried to narrow down the legit contenders for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. . .

[Kasept]

wac,

Hockey has the right answer. You liked 'KSS', and wanted to play him in exotics. You do need however to approach the race with the opinion that there were 2-3 horses that could win and that you needed to tie to him.

The top 5 public choices:

Z Fortune 3-4
Sierra Sunset 9-2
Anak Nakal 7-1
Sacred Journey 10-1
Golden Yank 11-1

My own top 4 were:

Sierra Sunset
Z Fortune
Anak Nakal
King's Silver Son

Let's say you narrowed your 'other possible winners' down to 3.. Z Fortune, Sierra Sunset and Anak Nakal. You would structure a play keying KSS first and second, (or first/second/third), with those 3 and 'ALL' for the other slot..

W: KSS
P: ZF, SS, GY
S: ALL

W: ZF, SS, GY
P: KSS
S: ALL

W: ZF, SS, GY
P: ALL
S: KSS

1x3x7 = $21; 3x1x7 = $21; 3x7x1 = $21

This way when your opinion is correct about a 17-1 like King's Silver Son and an Isabull (27-1) finishes in the money as well, you're in position to cash the $550.00 trifecta ($1) for $63 (or as little as $42).

[Travis Stone]

One of my favorite wagers is what is called a "reverse pyramid." I credit my friend for sharing this with me, although it's not his original idea, we've developed it into a nifty way to play the races.

The majority of handicappers build their wagers in a pyramid or triangular fashion:

    1
   2-3
2-3-4-5-6

The problem with this is that the majority of players are doing it! That's why, when a well-backed horse wins the race, most payoffs are somewhat low.

If you flip the logic around, you can open up a whirlwind of options...

Let's say you find a longshot you like. Well, he's a longshot, and he's more likely to run second than he is to win and is more likely to run third than he is second. At the same time, you've narrowed down the race to four horses - your longshot and three others.

At this point, take the pyramid, and flip it upside down with a few adjustments:

  2-3-4
2-3-4-5-6
    1

For just $12, you are covering a nice trifecta. The top three horses (2-3-4) are likely to have a shorter priced horse but a few mid-rangers as well. The center group has those three plus a couple of other nice prices. And finally, you're longshot in third.

You can then rotate the 1 into second, drop the second group down and you another great trifecta wager. For just $24, you have two very live trifecta wagers. Finally, I would take $6 and bet the 1 to win, just in case he runs awesome.

For $30, that's not too shabby of coverage.

The winning possibilities are exciting... say the 4 horse is 8-1 and he wins, but by sheer logic, one of your mid-priced horses is 8-1, and your longshot is 20-1... if it comes in 8-1 / 8-1 / 20-1, that's a huge payday.

I play this way 80% of the time. Finding live longshots to hit the board isn't nearly as difficult as finding live longshots to win.

Furthermore, as you do this, you begin to realize how some horses are "second tier" horses only, or how some horses are likely winners, and they belong in the top group.

It can get expensive, but if you can handicap/narrow down well, it's affordable.

You could go 4 x 10 x 1 for just $36... or 6 x 6 x 1 for $30 etc.

My friend will often use longshot early speed horses who might get an easy early lead, but wilt late to second or third, as his reverse pyramid horse. I, however, use more suck-up second and third place horses. Either way works.

Anyway, sorry to be long winded, but I really like this style of wagering.

[Travis Stone]

I'll also add that playing this way works best, in my opinion, at weaker tracks where the betting is often polarized and the pools thin. Your 20-1 shot will not be on as many tri tickets at a small track as it will a large one, and therefore, the payoff is much larger.

I ran a analysis on my wagering last year and my most profitable tracks: Indiana Downs, Mountaineer, Finger Lakes and Emerald. Kinda interesting.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

This was one of the races I talked about on Steve's radio show last Friday.

At the very end, Steve actually asked me for my "most likely winner" in the race as we were wrapping all 3 races up - and instead of answering his question, I ignored it and decided to tell how I felt was the right way to bet the race...and it was a good thing because the exacta paid $173.60 and the betting play I gave out paid almost 30/1.

Basically, King's Silver Son was just the 7th best horse on paper - he had a career lifetime top Beyer of just 80 and no buried form. However, he was a true hanging closer who was going to get the setup of a lifetime with Sacred Journey in the race. And, with He's Eze adding blinkers the stalker/mid-pack types get no breather.

I make the case that Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune are the likely winners of the race - but hopeless hanging longshot King's Silver Son will get a once-in-a-lifetime trip/setup.

As I said, there was only one way the race could be bet that I saw it - and that was by taking King's Silver Son and keying him 2nd in the exacta with the two likely winners (Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune) - and 3rd in the Tri behind those two.

A $2 exacta SS and ZF over KSS costs $4. A $1 tri SS and ZF over SS and ZF over KSS costs $2.

It's $6 per unit - and the exacta paid $173.60 - basically the same thing as hitting a 28/1 shot.

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Finding live longshots to hit the board isn't nearly as difficult as finding live longshots to win.

So true!

[booner]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Finding live longshots to hit the board isn't nearly as difficult as finding live longshots to win.

I have always been a better "win" bettor than exotic player. Finding the right horses to go underneath has always been a thorn in my side. Therefore, anytime I would find a longshot I liked, I would bet to win or play a multi-race wager, even if the other 2 or 3 races were hard to find any value. Needless to say, I was banging my head against the wall quite often.

I finally have worked hard on structuring sound exotic tickets. It's has been difficult for me to change my game as such, but I know in the long run this is the way to go when I find these types of longshots.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by booner

I have always been a better "win" bettor than exotic player. Finding the right horses to go underneath has always been a thorn in my side. Therefore, anytime I would find a longshot I liked, I would bet to win or play a multi-race wager, even if the other 2 or 3 races were hard to find any value. Needless to say, I was banging my head against the wall quite often.

I finally have worked hard on structuring sound exotic tickets. It's has been difficult for me to change my game as such, but I know in the long run this is the way to go when I find these types of longshots.

Longshots on top takes guts, but that leads you to the massive scores. One guy who plays out of Chicago is a solid handicapper, who finds longshots all the time. But where he really excels, is sticking with those convictions and hammering the horse. Not necessarily with just a win bet, but singling the horse in the P3 or P6... the true separator mentality (granted, singling an 8-1 would probably fall into this category, I'm not saying just 20-1's). Right now, I don't think I have the guts to single my longshots.

Takes guts, and skill...

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

One of my favorite wagers is what is called a "reverse pyramid." I credit my friend for sharing this with me, although it's not his original idea, we've developed it into a nifty way to play the races.

The majority of handicappers build their wagers in a pyramid or triangular fashion:

    1
   2-3
2-3-4-5-6

The problem with this is that the majority of players are doing it! That's why, when a well-backed horse wins the race, most payoffs are somewhat low.

If you flip the logic around, you can open up a whirlwind of options...

Let's say you find a longshot you like. Well, he's a longshot, and he's more likely to run second than he is to win and is more likely to run third than he is second. At the same time, you've narrowed down the race to four horses - your longshot and three others.

At this point, take the pyramid, and flip it upside down with a few adjustments:

  2-3-4
2-3-4-5-6
    1

For just $12, you are covering a nice trifecta. The top three horses (2-3-4) are likely to have a shorter priced horse but a few mid-rangers as well. The center group has those three plus a couple of other nice prices. And finally, you're longshot in third.

You can then rotate the 1 into second, drop the second group down and you another great trifecta wager. For just $24, you have two very live trifecta wagers. Finally, I would take $6 and bet the 1 to win, just in case he runs awesome.

For $30, that's not too shabby of coverage.

The winning possibilities are exciting... say the 4 horse is 8-1 and he wins, but by sheer logic, one of your mid-priced horses is 8-1, and your longshot is 20-1... if it comes in 8-1 / 8-1 / 20-1, that's a huge payday.

I play this way 80% of the time. Finding live longshots to hit the board isn't nearly as difficult as finding live longshots to win.

Furthermore, as you do this, you begin to realize how some horses are "second tier" horses only, or how some horses are likely winners, and they belong in the top group.

It can get expensive, but if you can handicap/narrow down well, it's affordable.

You could go 4 x 10 x 1 for just $36... or 6 x 6 x 1 for $30 etc.

My friend will often use longshot early speed horses who might get an easy early lead, but wilt late to second or third, as his reverse pyramid horse. I, however, use more suck-up second and third place horses. Either way works.

Anyway, sorry to be long winded, but I really like this style of wagering.

Travis,

I used a similar method to hit a superfecta (2x) on BC day. In the Distaff, I keyed Octave in 2nd & 3rd.. and also keyed Hysterical Lady & Lady Joanne in all 4 slots... and then spread out the rest for coverage. (these were dime supers, mind you!) I ended up hitting it twice thanks to all three of my key horses getting into the super... Obviously, having a strong/correct opinion made a huge difference... although, I thought Octave was going to mow them all down in the stretch (I didn't have her on top!).

[Oaklawnfan]

Originally Posted by wac

i guess this could get very expensive but i have got to figure something out b/c my head hurts from banging into the wall in my tv room.Any help is appreciated.thanks

I like to use the tri strategy in Steven Crist's book "Exotic Betting"
It has worked well for me with decent payouts on fields of at least 9 horses.

Example
1,2/1,2/3,4,5,6 = $8 for a $1 Tri Part-wheel,

then follow it with 1,2/3,4,5,6/1,2 = $8

Total budget $16

Hitting one of these can make your whole day.