8/23: Saratoga (Travers Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-Inner (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Feral 6-1: McPeek turf stretches out of solid debut try in fast dirt sprint.. 3rd
Next Best: #6 Bottas 7-2: Clement lawn route debut types have fired all summer.. WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Ambassador Blue 5-1: Gargan 2nd timer mixes it up with barn's nice ones.. 4th


2nd: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Extended route with murky pace..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Activist Investing 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Crystal Quest 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Then 7-2 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #8 Vesting 3-1 4th


3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

First of the 2 deep, high profile juvy dirt MSW's..

Best Value: #2 Glamorize 5-1: Chad readied Stewart's $1MM Randomized half sis downstate; Maxfield 25% with his FTS so far.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Tam Tam 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Touch of Magic 3-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Five Bars 8-1 WON ($21.80)


4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Confounding assembly with several refuseniks and other assorted chazarai. Pick and pray..

Best Value: #9 Long Pour 12-1 WON ($20.80)
Next Best: #8 Call Bob 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1e Bond entry 6-1 3rd/6th
Super Add: #7 Keepinitreal 5-2 5th


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Annascaul 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #4 Marvelous Madison 8-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Silsbee 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Phoebeinwonderland 12-1 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
3: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 8-9 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x3x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54 (1-7-10 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
3: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 8-9 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACA): 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27 (1-7-10 in 4th)


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Dr. Kapur 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 My World 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Stimulate 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Dark Assault 10-1 7th


7th: Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-Inner (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Favored Play With Fire is just one of the ones that can win..

Most Likely: #3 May Day Ready 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #4 Warming 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Play With Fire 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Eponine 7-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

3: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 8-9 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAAA): 2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (1-7-10 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

4: 8-9 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (CAAA): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-7-10 in 4th)


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

NY breds long on the turf are always wide open..

Most Likely: #10 Summer Whirl 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Dividend Recap 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Gallant Greta 7-2 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #8 Loveumissumeanit 5-1 11th


9th: Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-4+, 9f (Must Pay All G1 P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Repeat of last will make Leslie's Rose VERY hard to beat..

Most Likely: #6 Leslie's Rose 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Dorth Vader 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Thorpedo Anna 6-5 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #5 Raging Sea 5-1 4th


P5 Grid:

5: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
8: 6-10 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
9: 6 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x3x2x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
8: 6-10 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
9: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-5-7 in 9th)


10th: Allen Jerkens (G1), 3yo, 7f (Late P5, All G1 P4, P3, DD)

Like it's filly counterpart The Test, this event never disappoints. Baffert sends 3 against the resurgent Chancer McPatrick, but the competition runs literallt top to bottom among the octet..

Best Value: #8 Madaket Road 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Chancer McPatrick 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Barnes 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Patch Adams 3-1 WON ($7.00)


11th: Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Wasn't expecting to tab Hope Road on top, but glowing worktab makes her the one to beat. Majestic Oops turns back for Dan Ward and is too big a price to ignore..

Most Likely: #9 Hope Road 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #3 Majestic Oops 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Claret Beret 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Halina's Forte 10-1 5th


12th: Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Asmussen barn excels in spots like these and Extra Anejo gets favorable scenario for closing kick. On tilt coming in at a bulbous price..

Best Value: #5 Extra Anejo 15-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Book'em Danno 8-5 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Most Wanted 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Scotland 12-1 2nd


13th: Travers (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD)

Soveriegnty probably wins, but Magnitude will make everyone chase and Strategic Focus should be that much better after learning experience in the Curlin. If you can beat the division leader here, your multi-race wagers will explode..

Best Value: #3 Strategic Focus 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #4 Sovereignty 2-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #1 Magnitude 2-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

9: 6 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
10: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), 6-7-8 (B), - (C)
13: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

10: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 6-7-8 (C)
13: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-7-8 in 12th)


14th: NY-MCLM, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner

Rough ending to what should be a great day..

Most Likely: #13 Addagirl Addie 9-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Dancin Jane 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #12 I Heard Somethings 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Catholic Edition 5-1 12th


P5 Grid:

10: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 6-7-8 (C)
13: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 1-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (6-7-8 in 12th)


P4 Grid:

11: 3-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5-8 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)
13: 4 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
14: 1-13 (A), 9-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x4x1x2 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup (AACAA): 2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (1-3 in 13th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (9-4-4-1) Paid $19.62 (A-A-A-A)


Let's get lucky!
Steve