6/29: Churchill Downs ($1.4MM Derby City 6 C/O Force Out)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ CLOSING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Almost all firsters and murky ones at that..

Best Value: #5 Seal Bay 6-1 10th
Next Best: #9 I Did I Did 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Alpyland 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Exonerate 7-2 4th


5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Niki Nine Doors 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Satin Blue 5-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Foxxy Cleopatra 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Ervadean 15-1 8th


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

5: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x4x3 = 24 x $3 = $72


6th: Bashford Manor, 2yo, 6f (.20 Must Pay Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Saul Elliott 4-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Romeo 9-2 WON ($18.70)
Next Best: #1 Spice Runner 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Comport 3-1 2nd


7th: Debutante, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Light Won Up 5-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Color Comin' In 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Mine Strike 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Essential Coffee 3-1 7th


8th: Hanshin Cup, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Saudi Crown 9-5 7th
Best Value: #5 Tumbarumba 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Banishing 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Cagliostro 10-1 5th


P5 Grid:

4: 5-9 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
5: 2-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), 5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-5 in 6th)


P4 Grid:

5: 2-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-6 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), 5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9


9th: Anchorage, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Duvet Day 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Pin Up Betty 8-5 WON ($3.78)
Exotics Use: #5 Long Ago 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Charlene's Dream 3-1 5th


10th: Maxfield, 3yo, 7f (DD, Hi-5)

Yikes..

Most Likely: #8 Flood Zone 4-1 -
Best Value: #6 Smoken Wicked 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Verifire 5-1 WON ($7.18)
Exotics Use: #13 Furio 8-1 -


11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (Must Pay Hi-5)

Best Value: #12 GRAYLEIGH 20-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Good Game 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Twolatebabydoll 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Straight Forward 10-1 -
Hi-5 Play: #7 Merry Madison 5-1 -


.20 Must Pay Derby City P6 Grid:

6: 1-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-7-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x1x2x3x5 = 360 x .20 = $72


P5 Grid:

7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-7 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
10: 6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-12 (A), 2-10 (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-7 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-7 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
10: 6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-12 (A), 4-7-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 1x2x3x3 = 18 x .50 = $9


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[moses]

Good luck Steve.

In Race 7, that horse #6 Mine Strike came out of nowhere to win her debut. I had to watch that race multiple times to see how she was able to get up for first. Just an incredibly impressive finish. For both the 6th and 7th, I’ll be fading the #1 horses. You never know how they’ll run from the inside post and I don’t want a short price on either of them.

In Race 9, I don’t see who will be anywhere near Charlene’s Dream on the front end. That looks like a wire to wire win to me. Maybe she doesn’t want the extra distance but I suspect Pin Up Betty is the heavy favorite there and I think the 9 is just as good with a better pace setup.

In Race 11, I love your 2nd choice #5 Good Game. For horizontals, I’m also including your #12 as well as the #1 (whose figures fit and will be a monster price.)