9/16: Churchill Downs (1st-11th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW-R, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Murky bunch of price restricted baby girls. Drury & Stewart 2nd timers should improve..

Best Value: #7 Classy'n Connected 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Accommodate Eva 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 La Scaloneta 8-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Butterfly Queen 4-1 11th


2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Odd collection of elder maidens with very little obvious pace involved..

Most Likely: #7 Real Naughty 4-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Tiz the Coast 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Fayette Spirit 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Clyde's Got a Gun 7-2 WON ($11.98)


3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Hard to ignore the outlandish win early success of the Maximus Mischief juvies and Michelle Lovell (Mischievousness) can get one ready at first asking..

Best Value: #3 Mischievousness 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Life Advice 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Plagne Champagne 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #13 Pin Up Betty 4-1 6th


4th: Louisville TB Society, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Tough to argue against Downs terror Bango who is 7/4-3-0 over the past 12 months including 4/3-1-0 mark under the spires. Note too that Gulfstream Way (6-1) is in career form and feels like the right alternative to boost exotics.

Most Likely: #4 Bango 1-1 WON ($4.32)
Best Value: #5 Gulfstream Way 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Strobe 6-5 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Necker Island 8-1 3rd


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Debate 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Stand for Freedom 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Underhill's Tab 7-2 WON ($7.14)
Exotics Use: #4 Attache 8-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

1: 7-10 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
2: 1-3-7 (A), 4-6 (B), 2-5 (C)
3: 3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x2x1x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-C-A-A-A): 2x2x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (2-5 in 2nd)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-3-4-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
3: 3-9 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
4: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-5 (A), 6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x3 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 5x2x1x2 = 20 x .50 = $10
Backup (C-A-A-A): 2x2x1x2 = 8 x .50 = $4 (2-5 in 2nd)


6th: Open Mind, F&M-3+, 6f (Derby City 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Wicked Halo 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 More Than Vows 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Yuugiri 3-1 WON ($8.74)
Exotics Use: #3 Fire On Time 7-2 2nd


7th: Pocahontas (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 V V's Dream 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #5 Regal Rumor 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Youalmosthadme 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Hot Beach 7-2 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Always At Ease 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Musical Score 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Watch This Birdie 6-1 WON ($13.16)
Super Add: #2 Storm Bay 12-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Empirical View Gate SCR

TRI KEY: 5/2-3-6/SCR-10 (1x3x2 + 3x1x2 + 3x2x1 = 18 x .50 = $9)

How a Tri Key works.. Betting the 5 to be 1st, 2nd or 3rd with any combination of the 2-3-6-10..

1.) 5 w/ 2-3-6-10 w/ 2-3-6-10 (1x3x2 = 6 x .50 = $3)
2.) 2-3-6-10 w/ 5 w/ 2-3-6-10 (3x1x2 = 6 x .50 = $3)
3.) 2-3-6-10 w/ 2-3-6-10 w/ 5 (3x2x1 = 6 x .50 = $3)


P4 Grid:

5: 2-5-6 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
6: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3-5-10 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x6 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x3x4 = 36 x .50 = $18


9th: Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 1m (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Risk It 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Patriot Spirit 7-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Edified 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 West Saratoga 8-1 WON ($26.96)


10th: Locust Grove (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Very intriguing edition with classy top contenders (2-3-4-7) and solid, upset-minded types (5-6-10-11). Mix and match..

Most Likely: #4 Search Results 3-1 WON ($5.74)
Next Best: #3 Le Da Vida 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Misty Veil 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Hidden Connection 8-1 2nd

$1 Tri (4-6-5) Paid $288.42


11th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Clear Voice 10-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Regulatory Risk 2-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 High Shot 15-1 7th
Super Add: #13 West Sunset 4-1 WON ($10.76)
Hi-5 Play: #7 Sweet Gal of Mine 8-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

7: 5-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-5-10 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
9: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-4 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
11: 4-10 (A), 11-13 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x1x2x4 = 120 x 50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-C-A): 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5-6 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

8: 3-5-10 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
9: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-4 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
11: 4-7-10-11-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x5 = 100 x 50 = $50
All A's: 3x1x2x5 = 30 x .50 = $15


Good luck!
Steve