2/19: Fair Grounds (5th-13th)

[Kasept]

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Seems silly to ignore Hartman the way his horses are going and this 4yo may stand the raise after pair of $30k scores in January..

Best Value: #3 Courageously 6-1 7th
Next Best: #6 El Socio 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Blue Lou Boyle 7-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Continental Coins 8-1 WON ($21.20)


6th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Pricey Stewart/West Point soph Vinco was motoring late in debut. Third choice to start the bidding and added ground will benefit..

Most Likely: #5 Vinco 9-2 10th
Next Best: #4 Maasai Warrior 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Boss' Dialin In 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Strong Quality 4-1 WON ($12.00)


7th: Col. Power, 4+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Lovell turf terror Just Might controlling speed once again..

Most Likely: #2 Just Might 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Strike Me Down 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Cowan 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Seven Scents 8-1 4th


8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Nice 3yo's auditioning here as intermediate step for the Louisiana Derby..

Most Likely: #6 Cyberknife 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #5 Kapuna 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Ownership Entry 9-2 3rd/7th
Exotics Use: #9 Gunfighter 9-2 4th


P5 Grid:

5: 3-6 (A), 5-11-12 (B), - (C)
6: 4-5 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
7: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 1-4-7-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's Press: 2x2x1x2 = 8 x $3 = $24


9th: Big Al Memorial, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (All Stakes P5, P3, DD)

Modest pace projected here and Jose Ortiz gets a mare in Dawn's Dancer that has valuable tactical speed..

Best Value: #7 Dawn's Dancer 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Amiche 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Out of Sorts 8-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Abscond 7-2 3rd


10th: Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (All Stakes P4, P3, DD)

A terrific gathering of this featuring 5 four year olds of varied accomplishment that are going to enhance the handicap division: Olympiad, Miles D, O Besos, Happy American, Untreated.

Most Likely: #4 Olympiad 3-1 WON ($)
Next Best: #5 Miles D 3rd
Best Value: #2 Silver Prospector 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 O Besos 6-1 4th


P4 Grid:

7: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-5-6 (A), 4-7-9 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-4-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's Press: 1x3x5x1 = 15 x $2 = $30


11th: Fair Grounds (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Exciting 4yo roster isn't limited to the main track with Santin, Point Me By and first-time-North America Adhamo opening their campaigns here..

Best Value: #3 Santin 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Adhamo 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Largent 7-2 7th
Super Add: #11 Two Emmys 3-1 10th


12th: Rachel Alexandra (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Seemingly wide open with a legit pace..

Most Likely: #5 Divine Huntress 6-1 9th
Best Value: #2 North Country 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Dream Lith 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Miss Maddie B 15-1 5th


13th: Risen Star (G3), 3yo, 9f

Doesn't appear the logicals in this group are vulnerable. Two thirds of this field want to be on or near the lead, so it feels like those that can rate behind the speed, including favored Smile Happy in his highly anticipated seasonal debut, merit the longest looks. Having run 9f well in the Remsen, Zandon, who comes in as co-fastest on figs, also begins his sophomore campaign here and Upstarts tend to improve considerably from 2 to 3. At 9-2, he feels like the right price. Lecomte 2-3-4 Epicenter, Pappacap and Trafalgar all appear as legit candidates again, but Epicenter will have to withstand every challenge on the point..

Best Value: #7 Zandon 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Epicenter 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Smile Happy 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Pappacap 4-1 8th


P5 Grid:

9: 7-8 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
11: 3-6-10 (A), - (B), 7-11 (C)
12: 2-4-5 (A), 1-3 (B), 8-9-11 (C)
13: 5-7 (A), - (B), 8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups ($54): $18 (5) + $12 (7-11) + $18 (8-9-11) + $9 (8)


P4 Grid:

10: 4 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
11: 3-6-10 (A), 7-11 (B), - (C)
12: 2-3-4-5 (A), 1-8-9-11 (B), - (C)
13: 5-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x8x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x3x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $36 (2-5)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

FG SCR/CHG'S