12/7: Aqueduct (Cigar Day; Empire 6 Force Out)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Empire 6 force out starts here; $600k pool to open..

Tricky start to distribution sequence with several well connected, well bred and well meant types signed on including debuting $725k Or'effice (Md'O/Grace Hall) from Hennig/Courtland, Godolphin's Tapit/Hystericalady chestnut homebred Tapage, Jane Lyon 2nd out homebred Moon Over Miami (Malibu Moon/Zinzay) from Mott and DATTT Farm's Juulstone, an American Pharoah bay out of Hessonite sent by Shug..

Best Value: #2 Tapage 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Default Rate 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Mischief Afoot 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Or'effice 4-1 4th


6th: 65th Go for Wand (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Invading Spiced Perfection the class of this group and seemingly the speed as well with no other truly pace-leaning types involved. On that topic, notable that Jose Ortiz gets aboard Needs Supervision who has tactical foot and likely gets forward placement out of last week's LRL score. Understand those looking to single Spiced to assist Empire budget, but it may not be that simple given that she rarely ventures past 7f and gives 6-10#'s to rest of the field..

Most Likely: #3 Spiced Perfection 3-5 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1 Needs Supervision 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Another Broad 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Our Super Nova 6-1 3rd


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Brutal inclusion in already treacherous sequence with 8 first time starters facing 3 that have run. Duarte gets Jose Ortiz for Ego Man; Rosario rides Trash Talker for Magner. Of the FTS, 'run early' specialist Englehart has Villainous & Two Point Oh; Asmussen barn (Toby Sheets) sends cross-purpose bred Astronaut (Quality Road o/o turfy German mare whose N.A. runners have been barely ordinary); Jonathon Thomas offers Ralph Evans' Quixotic (Quality Road out of a strong female family) and Mott sends TIM 2yo purchase King Khozan. Slightly prefer those that have run..

Most Likely: #10 Trash Talker 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #11 Ego Man 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Quixotic 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 King Khozan 8-1 5th


8th: 97th Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (P3, DD0

Deep, interesting field of fillies with what looks like an honest pace scenario. Quality faves established from Hennig (Maedean), Shug (Alandra) and Mott (Lake Avenue), but mid-pack stalkers and closers (Critical Value/8-1; Daphne Moon/8-1; Water White/10-1) with shots at prices abound..

Most Likely: #5 Alandra 4-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Water White 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Critical Value 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Daphne Moon 8-1 8th


9th: 104th Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (DD)

O'Dwyer by-passed KY Jockey Club for this opportunity with Shotski and it may prove fortuitous at the 9f trip given his Blame/Bluegrass Cat mare breeding. Has improved with experience and distance and adds Saez who should take advantage of his tactical foot. 15-1 adds to his appeal. Pletcher pair Alpha Sixty Six & Chase Tracker doff and don blinkers respectively and look equally imposing as the 2nd/3rd choices. Cleon Jones has improved each start, but needs to prove out around two turns today. Only major knocks against Forza Di Oro is 3-1 price and lack of number power as one of the slower participants on figs..

Best Value: #6 Shotski 15-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #8 Alpha Sixty Six 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Chase Tracker 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Cleon Jones 6-1 7th


10th: 30th Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m

As stressed on ATR Friday, worth noting that for all the bashing the '19 3yo's seem to take, the 4 here (Maximum Security, Spun to Run, Network Effect, Looking At Bikinis) are at the heart of the narrative. Now, that story line may also be an indictment of the handicap division at large, but the 4, 5 and 6yo's that fill out this field have many quality graded stake wins and placements to their credit. Key to approaching this Cigar is how early you expect MaxSec and Spun to Run to engage. If they spar from the bell, they'll be vulnerable. If Saez seizes control, Maximum Security can pull a Private Zone and wire them. Chad's pair command attention with Brown having built an impressive record in this event via Patternrecognition and Connect wins and 3rd's from Practical Joke & Matrooh's. Bal Harbour (5/3-1-1 at 1m) should get an enviable trip behind the speeds and Tale of Silence (8/2-2-1) another effective at the distance..

Most Likely: #5 Maximum Security 3-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #2 Bal Harbour 8-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Looking At Bikinis 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Tale of Silence 20-1 11th


Empire 6 Grid:

5: 1-2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-3-10-11 (A), - (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x1x4x3x3x3 = 432 x .20 = $86.40
Backups: $71.60

7th: 4x1x2x3x3x3 = 216 x .20 = $43.20
9th: 4x1x4x3x1x3 = 144 x .20 = $28.40


P5 Grid:

6: 3 (A), - (B), 1-4-5-6 (C)
7: 10-11 (A), 1-3 (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 5-6-11 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
9: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), - (B), 1-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x5x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 1x2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27


P4 Grid:

7: 10-11 (A), 1-3 (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 5-6-11 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
9: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
10: 2-5-9 (A), - (B), 1-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27


Good luck!
Steve