just not seeing it this year

[ontheoutside]

I know this Saratoga meeting is the hardest to win money as far as betters go ,but in the last 7 years ive held m own with 2 of those years ive had crushing seasons this year ive had not a clue
im not seeing rite or maybe quick enough
im down 7 grand and we still have 4 weeks left
im at a loss for not only words but thoughts
its not the money I don't care much about the money but when your lost in selecting it gets to me
any thoughts?
any advice?
maybe a angle to watch for ? anything
like I said
im just not seeing it this year
thank you

[Alabama Stakes]

Hi brother. Try this angle going forward. In the Maiden races go for a hoss not working on the main track. Training track, farm, Kentucky or Monmouth are the ones who are running well at square prices. Also the one hole has still not won going 5 1/2 on the turf. On the main track, Rail is currently dead, but that could change. Speed on the inner and closers on the Mellon.

[goodcopy]

Bet the Ortiz brothers, Castellano, Santana on Asmussen horse, and anything Chad Brown or Todd Plechter runs and you will win 33% of the time.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by goodcopy

Bet the Ortiz brothers, Castellano, Santana on Asmussen horse, and anything Chad Brown or Todd Plechter runs and you will win 33% of the time.

Yup those Pletcher babys have been super strong.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Yup those Pletcher babys have been super strong.

Especially quick out of the gate too.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Especially quick out of the gate too.

Total disaster. Even the 1st race yesterday i heard his 5 was a runner and the Sharp horse blew her away.

[knickslions2]

Rosario has been very solid.

[ontheoutside]

wrote it all down lets go after it with using what others have proposed have a joyous rest of season 91 today im hanging in there
I think im 91 lol

[Alabama Stakes]

Happy Birthday OTO

[moses]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Total disaster. Even the 1st race yesterday i heard his 5 was a runner and the Sharp horse blew her away.

Sharp having a good meet. Clement ought to improve by the end of the meet.

Happy birthday OTO.

[cakes44]

This sounds horrible, but in the races at Saratoga where I don’t feel good about any of the horses, I bet the horse that is taking money that I hate. It is truly by far the most profitable angle for me. “They” are pretty sharp at Saratoga a lot of the time.

[ElPrado]

From what I've seen so far... Chad needs an armed escort back to the barn.

[ScottJ]

I have to disagree with several posts here. Saratoga has been different for several reasons.

First, the weather has not been picture-perfect as in the past two years. The sloppy main track has changed the dynamics of many races. The recent outside flow, emulating the Belmont Balcony run of the mid-1980s, has been the most noteworthy difference. If the weather dries and the track heats up, we may see a return to the style of the past two seasons.

Coupled to this is the inner turf course. At 5.5f, the inside speed has been good, but not perfect (Sandy Slew as an example). Some soft/yielding courses have led to inside and outside flows (Uni as an example).

The biggest change has been in the jockey colony performance. For the past several years, the Ortiz brothers, Castellano, and Velazquez were all you needed to know to get to 50% of the winners. This season, some more aggressive front end riding has shaken up the colony. Luis Saez and Ricardo Santana Jr have been in excellent form and have changed race dynamics several times this meet. Jose Ortiz was really off his game in the first ten days with only 3 wins. He has been trailing the field more times (March X Press yesterday for example) buried inside than I can remember.

Julien Leparoux has been an auto-toss this meet, perhaps moreso than previous Saratoga meetings. Corey Lanerie due to a family tragedy has not been at this year's meet where he has also struggled in the past. As a result, some Churchill horses are shipping in for live riders and those stats are stronger than past seasons. For me, that has been a problem as I typically do not trust the CD shippers due to fitness issues.

Last, there are the prices. During the first two weeks, 34% of the winners were between $10-$20 while only 15% were at $5.00 and under. Favorites have been very weak. I need to check the stats from Week #3 on thiese trends. It feels like we should be clicking with these value plays, but there have been many options on the competitive programs.

The most important thing I have seen this year is watching the daily NYRA feed, not just for odds, but the commentary. Some insights have taken me off horses that has performed poorly (sweating up, acting up and so forth).

Maybe the meet will even out to the norms, but the first three weeks have been different and more wide open than usual.

[Alabama Stakes]

Scott, you realize that 5 1/2 turf races are not on the inner turf course right ? I don't think post 1,2 or 3 has won any of the races yet. There must have been at least 2 dozen so far. The NYRA feed ( where they blast the commercials at full volume throughout the track so loudly that everyone has to stop talking) ends up giving every hoss in the race between all of them. As far as track bias , it's tough when the supposed top riders dive to the dead rail for no reason half the time.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Scott, you realize that 5 1/2 turf races are not on the inner turf course right ? I don't think post 1,2 or 3 has won any of the races yet. There must have been at least 2 dozen so far. The NYRA feed ( where they blast the commercials at full volume throughout the track so loudly that everyone has to stop talking) ends up giving every hoss in the race between all of them. As far as track bias , it's tough when the supposed top riders dive to the dead rail for no reason half the time.

I should have split my sentences and spoke about the 5.5f turf races on the Mellon as opposed to continuing from the inner turf course sentence. The prattle does talk about every horse which I use to augment my handicapping - are they mentioning something that I did not see in the form or on the track? Maggie's on-track and in-paddock observations are very useful for tossing horses that are acting-up.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

I should have split my sentences and spoke about the 5.5f turf races on the Mellon as opposed to continuing from the inner turf course sentence. The prattle does talk about every horse which I use to augment my handicapping - are they mentioning something that I did not see in the form or on the track? Maggie's on-track and in-paddock observations are very useful for tossing horses that are acting-up.

I agree about Maggie's observations they can be helpful, but I wish she would give more info on the feet on muddy days or off the turf races. It's only useful on the current race and horizontal tickets don't get that benefit except in the first leg. Do you find the commercials way too loud? It seems like for $55 for a clubhouse seat on Saturday, I shouldn't have to listen to Infinity car commercials at concert volume.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

The weather has been brutal so far but as far as trends go..

santana is bringing it big style if not on a ass man dirt horse he is still riding to hit the board with less under him on the turf

king louis saez is riding well and getting all of his mounts in the game.

caramooch is also doing well with what he a has.

jr alvarado with mott

bravo making a statement this year

first two week trainer grades not to mention brown

hot

k mclaughlin 90

t morley 85

r handal 80

mott 79

gullo 70 had some bad luck but getting it going

not hot

rudy

ward


tap to a point


weaver

gl next week

[SCUDSBROTHER]

1) I hate playing wet tracks.

2) You have to zero out the machine.

You have to be playing from a neutral position, or from ahead. Some people need to stop playing for a couple days to feel that way. Some people need 5 weeks. Some just need to play a different track. Not that many people win when they feel they are playing from behind.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

1) Hope for Donut Girl, or Helen's Tiger to win in dominating authoritative fashion in today's 7th race at Del Mar. Then, you'll most likely have an odds on high-headed filly ( that will run 2nd-4th.)