Your approach and type?

[pmayjr]

Sorry if this question has been wheeled out pover and over again every month, but I'm curious to know 2 things about you-

Based on all the picks and selections that I see on here for upcoming races:

1) Do you guys handicap races the night/morning before the races, or is there anyone else like me that doesn't touch a DRF until about 10 minutes to post time?
I can't ever put in my 2 cents (except on BC and TC days) unless you asked me about 5 minutes before race time. I wanna know all the factors going right beofre races time. Track condition, scratches, odds,potential payoffs, everything. Morning Lines can be too misleading for that.

2) What kinda of betting do you guys do?
I usually do Exacta and Tri Box's, and WP bets on longshots. I don't usually touch Supers, or Doubles, and Pick "#'s"

3) What do you guys usually do better with? Do you guys have better success betting the Belmonts, Gulfstreams, the more established tracks, or the crap tracks? Or do you have a style that seems to work well for both (don't give a pompass answer to this pelase)?
I say this time and time again, but I do so much better betting 5k claimers at Mountaineer than I ever do at Belmont. Longshots pop everywhere, but at crappier tracks I think they hit more often.

4) any betting advice... on anything for me? We have some of the best minds in the sport in this forum. Your advice is valued...

[2Hot4TV]

Small tracks vs. Large tracks, just look for winners / the best horse in the race where ever it is.

Don't depend on the odds board to show you the way to the winners circle.

Don't bet a 6/1 horse that won't win because you can't see betting a 6/5 horse that is going to win.

Pick your spots.

I mix trip handicapping with pace/class.

I spend my time in the paddock looking for horses that want to run today.

Last Keep your day job. It has helped me.

[TheSpyder]

First look for value, horses whose odds are better than their chances. I like to stick with just a few tracks, big or small, just to know the jockeys, trainers, and bias better.

Above all, money management, don't play every race. Pick your spots. And, keep track of your bets so you know or can learn where you are strongest, sprints, turf, etc.

[Cajungator26]

Pete,

I love the title of this thread.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Pete,

I love the title of this thread.

Cajun,
I'm with you on that.
Approach---very carefully. Mumble something. Smile.
Type---females only. Breathing better than other option. Excess leg hair is a turn-off. Trimmed moustaches...ok.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

Cajun,
I'm with you on that.
Approach---very carefully. Mumble something. Smile.
Type---females only. Breathing better than other option. Excess leg hair is a turn-off. Trimmed moustaches...ok.

Trimmed?!!! LMFAO, Wayne! Too damn funny...

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Sorry if this question has been wheeled out pover and over again every month, but I'm curious to know 2 things about you-

Based on all the picks and selections that I see on here for upcoming races:

1) Do you guys handicap races the night/morning before the races, or is there anyone else like me that doesn't touch a DRF until about 10 minutes to post time?
I can't ever put in my 2 cents (except on BC and TC days) unless you asked me about 5 minutes before race time. I wanna know all the factors going right beofre races time. Track condition, scratches, odds,potential payoffs, everything. Morning Lines can be too misleading for that.

2) What kinda of betting do you guys do?
I usually do Exacta and Tri Box's, and WP bets on longshots. I don't usually touch Supers, or Doubles, and Pick "#'s"

3) What do you guys usually do better with? Do you guys have better success betting the Belmonts, Gulfstreams, the more established tracks, or the crap tracks? Or do you have a style that seems to work well for both (don't give a pompass answer to this pelase)?
I say this time and time again, but I do so much better betting 5k claimers at Mountaineer than I ever do at Belmont. Longshots pop everywhere, but at crappier tracks I think they hit more often.

4) any betting advice... on anything for me? We have some of the best minds in the sport in this forum. Your advice is valued...

Good thread...

The first and foremost rule on gambling on horses I have is you have to know when to pass on a race. Don't be a chalk eating weasel. This is a high risk/high reward gamble, betting a box tri costing $12 to win $17 is not a wise manuever and races like that are a pass.

You have to determine "value". Value is a subjective term, GM's in baseball toss it around all the time. In the end, would it be better to sign Barry Zito for $15m/per or sign Ted Lilly for $6m/per who has the same relative perpherial numbers and has pitched consistently in a difficult division in the AL East? In horse racing terms, the bet to win on Zito is 8-5 and Lilly is 5-1.
Put me down for $100 win on Lilly then if I believe in him and can come up with a plausible scenario where he wins the "race". Thats the difference between winning $3,000 or losing $100 on the chalk. I'd rather risk $100 to win $3,000 than risk $100 to win $1,300. Risk vs Reward. Yesterday's Champagne was a great example. No Biz like Showbiz was hammered down to 8-5. Granted his maiden was an impressive win, but when you look deeper, his times didnt match favorably, his pedigree is suspect for a 2 yr old and the logical choice was Scat Daddy at almost 3-1. That was robbery yesterday. Glad to hear others saw that yesterday (Joel Cunningham being one of them) and jumped all over that. I singled Scat in my NTRA pick 4 and threw down a c note or two on him to win and cashed on both ends. Now I can pad my gambling bankroll going into the Breeders Cup and the holiday season WHICH IS HUGE.

I will make any bet that has a reasonable chance to make money. You need to play where you see glaring mistakes by others, like the Champagne. Another good example is the 2003 Belmont which had Funny Cide going for the Triple Crown. Empire Maker was the best horse in that run for the TC. Funny Cide however clearly made his mark and won the Derby and Preakness.
Everyone and their mothers were in love with Funny Cide and rightfully so. But, love has no place at the betting window. The logical choice going 1.5 miles was CLEARLY Empire Maker and he went off at 2-1. Funny Cide was 6-5 I think. Be that as it may, I cashed a win ticket on EM. Did I want to see FC win the TC? Absolutely. But I enjoyed the $1500 I pulled down on EM more than the sentiment a win by FC would have created.

Good luck out there.

[dellinger63]

I bet and usually lose. Pic 3's. LOL when I do I have another beer and double up on the next play. Hasn't worked yet but my parents didn't raise a quitter. Anyone going to BC day is welcome to watch my act first hand. At least I'll have a Byk beef with Hooves as a fellow customer. Life is good.

[Scav]

Dell, you driving down there or flying?

[dellinger63]

driving. looks like early Friday. about 10 or so going.

[Thunder Gulch]

I do a ton of work before ever going to the track. I use the charts to profile the track for preferred running styles for the previous week, and I download Bris Ultimates 24 hours in advance. I guess I need to start incorporating paddock and post parade analysis in my betting, but I just am not educated enough in that aspect of it. The only changes I make as the day goes along relate to the toteboard.

[SentToStud]

There's a whole chapter on this in my book, "Redheads, Racing and Risk Management." A few excerpts....

1. Don't wager with anything other than discretionary income.
2. When paying your bills, the most important to pay first is yourself. If you have a 401k at work, max out. Also, go on ahead and open a Roth or Individual IRA where you can contribute even more tax-free money. Don't wait. Start young. Houses ain't getting any cheaper.
3. Play 1 or, at most, 2 tracks. And, of course, do not bet every race.
4. Watch race replays and take trip notes for every horse. If you're serious about finding decent winners at a value price, I do not believe you can do it without a heavy dose of trip handicapping.
5. Use a wager log. Religiously. You will learn what race types you're good at and which you should avoid.
6. If a short priced favorite looks worthy, guess what, it probably is. Pass the race. You cannot beat these races on a single-race basis betting on or against the chalk.
7. Your best single race wager opportunities are those where you are getting good value on your horse and you feel the favorite is a bad one. Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta wagers excluding a bad favorite are solid opportunities.
8. I know a lot of horseplayers and most of them disagree with this next statement... Never bet to place or show. When someone says they bet to place "to get my money back," that really miffs me. Play the game to win. I am very strong in my belief here. I will play my selection second in exactas at times when I toss a bad favorite, but that's as far as I go in terms of putting my money anywhere other than on my selection to win the race.
9. Absolutely do handicap the evening or morning before the races. You need to focus on scratches, changes and value during "track time." When looking at the form initially, find the race you are most UNLIKELY to bet and start there, using it as a sort of warm up.
10. There is nothing at all wrong with going to the track, having a good time, looking at the form for a couple minutes and betting on the races. But you need to recognize that kind of outing for what it is. On this type of betting day, wager small, enjoy yourself and be entertained. But do recognize this is not the same as what needs to be done to wager more significant dollars.

good luck.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Sorry if this question has been wheeled out pover and over again every month, but I'm curious to know 2 things about you-

Based on all the picks and selections that I see on here for upcoming races:

1) Do you guys handicap races the night/morning before the races, or is there anyone else like me that doesn't touch a DRF until about 10 minutes to post time?
I can't ever put in my 2 cents (except on BC and TC days) unless you asked me about 5 minutes before race time. I wanna know all the factors going right beofre races time. Track condition, scratches, odds,potential payoffs, everything. Morning Lines can be too misleading for that.

I like to make a preliminary line the night before for any race I think might be of betting interest. I can easily adjust that line for any of the late changes you list.

Originally Posted by pmayjr

2) What kinda of betting do you guys do?
I usually do Exacta and Tri Box's, and WP bets on longshots. I don't usually touch Supers, or Doubles, and Pick "#'s"

90% of my bets are win bets.

Originally Posted by pmayjr

3) What do you guys usually do better with? Do you guys have better success betting the Belmonts, Gulfstreams, the more established tracks, or the crap tracks? Or do you have a style that seems to work well for both (don't give a pompass answer to this pelase)?
I say this time and time again, but I do so much better betting 5k claimers at Mountaineer than I ever do at Belmont. Longshots pop everywhere, but at crappier tracks I think they hit more often.

I usually bet the bigger tracks. I pass on virtually all maiden races and rarely bet 2-yr-olds.

Originally Posted by pmayjr

4) any betting advice... on anything for me? We have some of the best minds in the sport in this forum. Your advice is valued...

My #1 piece of advice is to make your own fair odds line, preferably NOT by pulling numbers out of a hat. (Your line should work out to a 100% probability if you sum up 1/(ODDS+1) for each horse.) I've often felt I'd want to bet a horse at, say, 3-1, but after making a complete line, the 3-1 clearly wasn't good enough. Never make a bet unless you are getting more than your fair odds estimate.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Shouldn't you factor in the takeout and make your comprehensive odds equal about 115 as opposed to 100?

Cardus, the goal is to find bets that have "value". You have "value" when the odds you are getting are greater than the "fair" odds. You cannot have a line of "fair" odds if the probabilities of all the outcomes add to 115%.

Here's a simple example. Let's say 10 horses in a race are perfectly matched; each has the same chance to win. If you make an odds line that adds to 115, you will find that each horse's odds would be 7.70 to 1. Does that mean you should be happy to find 8.50-1 on one of the horses? No way. The fair odds on each horse is 9-1, because each of the 10 horses has a 10% chance to win. You should not be happy unless you get more than 9-1.

Using a line that adds to anything other than 100% can only lead to confusion.

--Dunbar

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

i dont have alotta time to elaborate cuz i gotta head out soon but i will say i ALWAYS read the form the night before, if i dont i feel naked if im at the track! when i wager individual races im primarily a W/P guy but if i like a horse alot on top thats gonna be around 8-1 or over then i will key exotics as well! my favorite wager is of course the pick 3, and my best and favorite wagering meet of the entire year returns this year in another month.........fairgrounds !