Cozmic One

[freddymo]

Guess another dozen works and he will be ready to make go of it:

Cozmic One 03/20/2015 SA 5F 1:01.20 Dirt Fast H
03/09/2015 SA 5F 1:01.20 Dirt Fast H G
03/01/2015 SA 5F 1:00.60 Dirt Fast H
02/19/2015 SA 4F :49.60 Dirt Fast H
01/31/2015 SA 6F 1:14.00 Dirt Fast H
01/23/2015 SA 5F 1:03.00 Dirt Fast H
01/15/2015 SA 5F 1:03.20 Dirt Fast H
01/05/2015 SA 5F 1:01.60 Dirt Fast H G
12/29/2014 SA 5F 1:01.00 Dirt Fast H
12/21/2014 SA 5F 1:04.20 Dirt Fast H

Dont want to rush him

[Indian Charlie]

I didn't think I'd ever say this here...

But...

He's done enough.

[declansharbor]

Bigger bet-against than Nicanor was in his debut?

I can only hope so!

[Pants II]

These 1 percenter horses have such stressful lives.

They might want to wait until next winter. Just to be safe.

[Arletta]

Perhaps he's big like Zenyatta was and he's giving him time to grow. Maybe we'll see him when Del Mar starts.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Bigger bet-against than Nicanor was in his debut?

I can only hope so!

I thought Nicanor went off at 5-1 and ran 2nd. That is what racereplays.com is showing.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Guess another dozen works and he will be ready to make go of it:

Cozmic One 03/20/2015 SA 5F 1:01.20 Dirt Fast H
03/09/2015 SA 5F 1:01.20 Dirt Fast H G
03/01/2015 SA 5F 1:00.60 Dirt Fast H
02/19/2015 SA 4F :49.60 Dirt Fast H
01/31/2015 SA 6F 1:14.00 Dirt Fast H
01/23/2015 SA 5F 1:03.00 Dirt Fast H
01/15/2015 SA 5F 1:03.20 Dirt Fast H
01/05/2015 SA 5F 1:01.60 Dirt Fast H G
12/29/2014 SA 5F 1:01.00 Dirt Fast H
12/21/2014 SA 5F 1:04.20 Dirt Fast H

Dont want to rush him

He did the same thing with Zenyatta and look at the results he got with her. When a guy does something that is completely unorthodox, you can criticize him if he doesn't get good results. But considering the results that Shirreffs got with Zenyatta, I'm not going to second-guess him.

[ScottJSux]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

He did the same thing with Zenyatta and look at the results he got with her. When a guy does something that is completely unorthodox, you can criticize him if he doesn't get good results. But considering the results that Shirreffs got with Zenyatta, I'm not going to second-guess him.

I bet you're a climate change denier as well.

[pointman]

Obviously being careful, I doubt they want to ruin his unbeaten record.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I thought Nicanor went off at 5-1 and ran 2nd. That is what racereplays.com is showing.

That might have been his second race. I only remember bc I smashed the $hit out of the race with Warrior's Reward. I'll never in my life forget it. Parx patrons couldnt take their eyes off of my brother & I for going bananas.

[cakes44]

Word around the backstretch is he's being moved to the John Ward barn for a more aggressive training approach.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

That might have been his second race. I only remember bc I smashed the $hit out of the race with Warrior's Reward. I'll never in my life forget it. Parx patrons couldnt take their eyes off of my brother & I for going bananas.

I think you are right. Racereplays.com does not cover Parx. So the first race they show for him is at Gulfstream. It was so long ago that I don't even remember. I remember watching some of his grass races at Gulfstream but I don't remember his debut at all.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think you are right. Racereplays.com does not cover Parx. So the first race they show for him is at Gulfstream. It was so long ago that I don't even remember. I remember watching some of his grass races at Gulfstream but I don't remember his debut at all.

His debut was at Gulfstream ( I think Warrior's Reward won it at a HUGE price ). I feel like he opened at 1:5. I was at Horsemens Park in Omaha.

He didn't debut at Parx.

[GenuineRisk]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?...rse&id=3875117

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think you are right. Racereplays.com does not cover Parx. So the first race they show for him is at Gulfstream. It was so long ago that I don't even remember. I remember watching some of his grass races at Gulfstream but I don't remember his debut at all.

Nicanor's race was at Gulfstream. MSW at a mile.

I was at Parx with my brother. Him & I w/ a smile.

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Nicanor's race was at Gulfstream. MSW at a mile.

I was at Parx with my brother. Him & I w/ a smile.

was bored and pulled up the chart:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...09&cy=USA&rn=8

Big Flirt is still in training and just won at Mahoning Valley Race Course on 3/9.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

His debut was at Gulfstream ( I think Warrior's Reward won it at a HUGE price ). I feel like he opened at 1:5. I was at Horsemens Park in Omaha.

He didn't debut at Parx.

When a horse scratches, racereplays will have the race listed but the finish position is left blank. They show his finish position as blank in that race on Jan. 31, 2009. So I assumed he scratched that day and that his debut was the next listed race where it shows he finished 2nd on March 7. But as you said, I now see that he did in fact run in that race on Jan. 31 that Warrior's Reward won at 30-1. I have no idea why racereplays showed Nicanor's finish position as blank when he did in fact run in that race.
Anyway, I guess he was 4-1 on the morning line and got hammered early but ended up going off at 5-2.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

When a horse scratches, racereplays will have the race listed but the finish position is left blank. They show his finish position as blank in that race on Jan. 31, 2009. So I assumed he scratched that day and that his debut was the next listed race where it shows he finished 2nd on March 7. But as you said, I now see that he did in fact run in that race on Jan. 31 that Warrior's Reward won at 30-1. I have no idea why racereplays showed Nicanor's finish position as blank when he did in fact run in that race.
Anyway, I guess he was 4-1 on the morning line and got hammered early but ended up going off at 5-2.

It's OK that you were wrong. Most of us, probably even you ( and definitely me ), are wrong ALL the time.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's OK that you were wrong. Most of us, probably even you ( and definitely me ), are wrong ALL the time.

I got the sense that his main objective was to discredit my "bet-against" assertion.

Pup's been having a rough go on this board lately lol

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I got the sense that his main objective was to discredit my "bet-against" assertion.

Pup's been having a rough go on this board lately lol

I wasn't trying to discredit your bet against assertion. I was just curious to see what the horse went off at that day. Then when I looked at racereplays and thought he was only 5-1 and ran 2nd, I couldn't figure out how that was a great bet against. But you were right, he was a relatively low price (5-2).

Do I think it is a good angle to bet against half or full brothers to great horses? Do I think it's a good angle to bet against horses out of great mares? It just depends. If I have info that the horse is no good and the horse is getting bet heavily, then the answer is yes. But if I have no info, then I don't think it's a great angle. If a horse is slightly overbet, that's not going to be enough to give you an edge that will overcome the 16% vig. If a horse that should be 3-1 is 2-1, I'm not going to unload on the rest of the field. When Zenyatta's sister (Eblouissnate) made her debut, was she a great bet against? I don't know. I would say probably not. She ended up going off at 7-5 and she won. Was she overbet? She was probably slightly overbet but she was working well and she had more than one sibling that was a grade I winner. In addition, I know Zenyatta won first time out. I can't remember whether Balance (her other sister) won first time out.