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  #1  
Old 09-03-2014, 06:35 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 42,706
Default 9/3: Del Mar Turf Club (Closing Day; Futurity)

DEL MAR


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, PL Pick All)

Best Value: #7 FLOWINWITHEBREEZ 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Susan B Good 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Three Blondes 5-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Lethal Story 3-1 WON ($12.40)


2nd: 16th Pirate's Bounty-R, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

No shortage of pace dependents here which makes you think think returning No Silent and last out sparkler Bull Dozer may be ones to use most..

Most Likely: #1 Bull Dozer 3-1 5th
Next Best #6 Seeking the Sherif 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 No Silent 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Ankeny Hill 5-1 WON ($14.00)


3rd: CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Treacherous low level sellers with droppers, raisers, last-chance-on-the-synthetic players grappling. If it's not Fighter Squadron from the remarkably resurgent Hess-Desormeaux, it could be any..

Most Likely: #5 Fighter Squadron 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Friendly Banter 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #1 Barney Rebel 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Tiznow or Then 4-1 7th


4th: 21st C.E.R.F., F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

That was a bad 3rd at .80 by Reneesgotzip in the 4 mare Rancho Bernardo and it doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence for today. Class of field obviously and a slam dunk if right, but..

Most Likely: #1 Reneesgotzip 5-2 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #2 Top Kisser 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Kinz Funky Monkey 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Clearly Confused 6-1 6th


5th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Zip Cat 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Sunrise Legacy 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 World Famous Sam T 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Valentine Boy 12-1 WON ($23.20)


<$75 P5 Grid:

1: 7 (A), 1-3 (B), 5 (C)
2: 1-6 (A), 4 (B), 5 (C)
3: 5 (A), 1-6-8 (B), 3-7 (C)
4: 1 (A), 2-8 (B), 4-5-6-7-9 (C)
5: 11 (A), 3-12 (B), 6-7-10 (C)

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 5 with 1 with 11 - $0.50

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P5: 1,3 with 1,6 with 5 with 1 with 11 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 4 with 5 with 1 with 11 - $0.50
4 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 1,6,8 with 1 with 11 - $3.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 5 with 2,8 with 11 - $2.00
6 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 5 with 1 with 3,12 - $2.00

A's with Two B's

7 $0.50 pick P5: 1,3 with 4 with 5 with 1 with 11 - $1.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 1,3 with 1,6 with 1,6,8 with 1 with 11 - $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 1,3 with 1,6 with 5 with 2,8 with 11 - $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 1,3 with 1,6 with 5 with 1 with 3,12 - $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 4 with 1,6,8 with 1 with 11 - $1.50
12 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 4 with 5 with 2,8 with 11 - $1.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 4 with 5 with 1 with 3,12 - $1.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 1,6,8 with 2,8 with 11 - $6.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 1,6,8 with 1 with 3,12 - $6.00
16 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 5 with 2,8 with 3,12 - $4.00

A's with One C

17 $0.50 pick P5: 5 with 1,6 with 5 with 1 with 11 - $1.00
18 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 5 with 5 with 1 with 11 - $0.50
19 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 3,7 with 1 with 11 - $2.00
20 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 5 with 4,5,6,7,9 with 11 - $5.00
21 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,6 with 5 with 1 with 6,7,10 - $3.00

Total: $56.00


6th: 3rd Oak Tree Juvenile Turf, 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Mysterious event with 7 maidens involved including Casse FTS (first time starter) Conquest Bespoke which gets Mike Smith. I'm trying the other Casse..

Best Value: #8 Pioneerof the West 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Dallas Skyline 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Papacoolpapacool 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Daddy D T 8-1 WON ($7.20)


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Cougar Country a half to SW Procurement..

Most Likely: #2 Cougar Country 7-2 10th
Best Value: #4 Pretentious 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fame and Power 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Stormy Liberal 9-2 8th


8th: 67th Del Mar Futurity (G1), 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Baffert has won this 11 times. He has also taken 'blinkers off' in a 2nd career start 92 times in the last 5 years with 35% W's and 72% ITM results..

Best Value: #1 American Pharoah 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #5 Iron Fist 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Skyway 9-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Calculator 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $35.20
$1 Trifecta (1-4-5) Paid $121.30
$1 Superfecta (1-4-5-9) Paid $541.80



9th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (DD)

Very tough group to separate with serious firsters and several with experience that are easily good enough..

Most Likely: #7 Stormy Adieu 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #5 Diamond Debbie 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Flat Footed Mama 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Pause the Memories 5-1 10th


10th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Taste Like Candy 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Disregarded 5-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Practising 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Vanlose Stairway 9-2 7th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Kukaluka 8-1 6th


<$65 P4 Grid:

7: 2-4 (A), 6-8 (B), 1-3-10 (C)
8: 1 (A), 5-9 (B), 4-6-7-8 (C)
9: 5-7 (A), 1 (B), 2-6 (C)
10: 1 (A), 2-4-7 (B), 3-8-9 (C)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 2,4 with 1 with 5,7 with 1 - $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 1 with 5,7 with 1 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 5,9 with 5,7 with 1 - $4.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 1 with 1 with 1 - $1.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 1 with 5,7 with 2,4,7 - $6.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 5,9 with 5,7 with 1 - $4.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 1 with 1 with 1 - $1.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 1 with 5,7 with 2,4,7 - $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 5,9 with 1 with 1 - $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 5,9 with 5,7 with 2,4,7 - $12.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 1 with 1 with 2,4,7 - $3.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3,10 with 1 with 5,7 with 1 - $3.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 4,6,7,8 with 5,7 with 1 - $8.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 1 with 2,6 with 1 - $2.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4 with 1 with 5,7 with 3,8,9 - $6.00

Total: $64.00


Good luck!
Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 09-04-2014 at 05:20 AM.
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  #2  
Old 09-03-2014, 01:15 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 42,706
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DMR SCR/CHG'S
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #3  
Old 09-03-2014, 03:23 PM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
8th: 67th Del Mar Futurity (G1), 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Baffert has won this 11 times. He has also taken 'blinkers off' in a 2nd career start 92 times in the last 5 years with 35% W's and 72% ITM results..
Good luck today Steve. Just saw that Baffert is 0/7 (4 ITM) when further factoring in 2yos in Graded Stakes, and 1/13 (6 ITM) when you also consider 2yos at DMR. This means he'll probably win today...
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Old 09-03-2014, 04:27 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Oopha.. Bad performance from the D' Amato in the opener.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 09-03-2014, 04:30 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
Good luck today Steve. Just saw that Baffert is 0/7 (4 ITM) when further factoring in 2yos in Graded Stakes, and 1/13 (6 ITM) when you also consider 2yos at DMR. This means he'll probably win today...
Saw the narrowed numbers too. Thought prospect for American Pharoah having edge on front end weighs in a lot and the 50%-ish ITM under conditions plenty strong as part of the 2nd st./blinkers off numbers. G/L today!
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 09-03-2014, 09:30 PM
Many Others Many Others is offline
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Steve - thanks for sharing all your insights and thought processes with us this summer, it's appreciated! Of course am reluctant to turn the page towards fall, but luckily racing always gives us anticipation for the next season. Best regards to all!
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