8/10: Saratoga (Day 20-G2 Fourstardave)

[Kasept]

First sloppy day of the season Friday produced some OK results with $21.60 Leah Gyarmati monster miss the highlight anchoring the early P4 ($90). Shine a Spotlight lost an agonizing photo in the 7th that cost the late quad which had potential to return $250 or so. Gyarmati blasted off an 0/13 Spa duck with longtime client Jeff Treadway's first time starting filly Sweet Reason (Street Sense) who won by 5 widening lengths and tripped an 82 Beyer under Alex Solis. Out of the Mt. Livermore mare that produced MSW Don't Forget Gil (Kafwain), the $185k KEE yearling buy is advanced physically and looks like a major player considering that she is most likely cut out to route. Hope everyone did well. Weather cleared out overnight and a beautiful weekend is on tap with terrific cards at both Saratoga and Del Mar..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Terrific opener to fun card. Would love to keep 2-1 ML fave Ithastobegeorge out of the pay slots hoping he regresses from huge try last, but run back to it makes him tough. And if he doesn't fire, you still have Jacobson's Tenango (5-2) to deal with outside. Make Your Move turns back to 7f after chasing in Dwyer. Tug of War earning high marks from clockers..

Most Likely: #7 Moonlight Song 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #1 Make Your Move 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Tenango 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Ithastobegeorge 2-1 3rd


2nd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Tricky group of six. Favored Greed and Fear has only one race on page (11/17/12 Safely Kept win at LRL) that makes her competitive. Even in hands of magical troika of Maker/Ramsey/Rosario, seems like an overbet play-against. Invasor was inducted into HOF Friday and daughter Expression looks right having faced nice stakes foes last pair including Silverette, Romans' and Pompa's impressive turf dasher..

Most Likely: #5 Expression 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Ann's Smart Dancer 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Greed and Fear 5-2 5th


3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Ramsey shoving The Sixties through again after no one was interested for $10k at the Downs. Worktab info says he's ouchy. El Cuadro drilled sharply for this and adds hood. Needs to get out of gate to pursue likely pacesetter Rubys and Pearls..

Most Likely: #5 The Sixties 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 El Cuadro 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Rubys and Pearls 5-2 DNF
Exotics Use: #6 Where's Danny 3-1 WON ($6.60)


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

As offered by Nick Tammaro Friday on ATR, C. Brown owns gaudy percentages and ROI under scenario that fits Can't Catch Kate. There are nice options to use with her though as Shirreffs' Poster Girl looks set for best and Neat Package (Sheppard for ad man Bill Backer) makes first 3yo start. Be aware that Treasured Up has merit should she find her way into the starting gate of the AE's..

Most Likely: #2 Can't Catch Kate 3-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Poster Girl 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Neat Package 5-1 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Winner's Legacy 8-1 10th


5th: CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Dighton 4-1 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #12 Harley 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Prudent Investor 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Kiss of Thunder 5-17th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-5
3: 1-5-6-7
4: 2-6
5: 7-12-13

4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

All firster guessing game with pedigrees, worktabs and trainer history the clues to possible success..

Most Likely: #5 Sound of Freedom 2-1: Pletcher War Front likely ready.. 2nd
Best Value: #2 Tiznowforamerica 12-1: Surprise package caught eye of Welsch.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Point Hope 6-1: KMc/Darley full to North Slope steady in a.m. 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Borseggiatore 3-1: Sharp drills but Zito not hitting 1st out.. 8th


7th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Do I Amuse You (12-1) will be bet down on acclaim of pace play advantage. Trainers can read PP's too and expect aggression from Rosario (Ambassador Bridge) and Saez (Charlie's Punch)..

Best Value: #9 Charlie's Punch 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Ambassador Bridge LATE SCR-Gate
Exotics Use: #6 Do I Amuse You 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Soul House 7-5 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Tough reads abound here with any number of surface switchers offering intrigue and value. Pace looks square at the least and possibly quite fast. Note that Shirreffs' AE player Pease and Justice GETS IN dangerous if allowed to participate..

Most Likely: #2 Valid 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Abraham 3-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Rivendell 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Ghost Hunter 5-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Peace and Justice 3-1 8th


9th: Auntie Mame, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T

Nice group..

Most Likely: #8 Summer of Fun 7-2 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #4 Bella Castani LATE SCR
Next Best: #2 Praia 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Joy 12-1 3rd


10th: 29th Fourstardave H. (G2), 3+, 1m-IT (DD)

Hard to take stand against Horse of Year Wise Dan even though the 129# impost offers serious length spreads with rest of the solid cast. Tactically and pace wise, Lea, King Kreesa and Skyring could inhibit each others upset potential out while Velazquez sits the ideal up-close stalking voyage inside as in last year's edition of this. Za Approval stands to benefit the mosr from any pace contention and feels like the right one for exotics keys underneath the favorite and as small saver on top..

Most Likely: #1 Wise Dan 3-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Za Approval LATE SCR-Stake/Course condition
Next Best: #6 King Kreesa 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Mr. Commons 10-1 4th


11th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #8 Adirondack Dancer 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Third Knight 6-1 9th
Next Best: #4 North Star Boy 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Wildcatter 5-1 4th


<$75 P4 Plays:

8: 2-3-4-5-7-11
9: 2-4/SCR-8
10: 1 (3/SCR)
11: 8 (4-7-11)

6x3x1x1 = 18 x $2 = $36 (Wise Dan press)
6x3x1x4 = 72 x .50 = $36 (Wise Dan wide)
6x3x1x1 = 18 x .50 = $9 (Za Approval/Adirondack Dancer back-up)


Good luck!
Steve