8/29: Saratoga (Day 35; P.G. Johnson)

[Kasept]

As mentioned Tuesday on ATR, was annoyed at myself for not taking a pass on Monday when unprepared for the action, but the Saratoga slates and the added lure of a carryover is kind of irresistible. But in doing so after the busy, intense weekend, I missed an obvious horse in the Tony Dutrow winner of the 5th (O' Frederica) and generally made other sloppy decisions wasting some of Sunday's gains. Lesson learned is that you shouldn't play just to play. Moving forward, if I don't post selections during a period like Saratoga, it will be because I wasn't able to adequately prepare and it would be a disservice to anyone that uses my opinion as a guide.

We have a great card to kick off the final week of the meet Wednesday and let's finish this tricky season with a flourish!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P3, DD)

2yo's going 9 panels always interesting. KMc's stats on this bode well for Thane obviously, but there are 3 here that went 8.5f turfy furlongs already and that provides plenty of bottom for this endeavor..

Most Likely: #5 Thane 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Norumbega 5-1 WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #3 Western Sadler 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Boogie Too 6-1 6th


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Interesting $65k 2yo set with Smoke Town (Half to Redeemed), Brazilian Court (Half to Devoted Wildcat) notable on pedigree..

Most Likely: #3 Smoke Town 2-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Brazilian Court 6-1 2nd-DQ'd from WIN
Next Best: #2 Scofield 6-1 WON-Via DQ ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Brother Bob 7-2 3rd


3rd: David-NY, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Serpe has quietly had an outstanding season up here and Weekend Hideaway should win here to further augment Smilin' Phil's summer..

Most Likely: #5 Weekend Hideaway 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Awesome Weekend 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Slot Play 5-1 2nd


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Cat and mouse kind of group and under that scenario, don't we all want Dominguez? I'm singling Serpe colt above and taking all of these in the P4..

Most Likely: #1 Promise Me a Cat 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Smokin' Alice 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Hearts of Red 6-1 WON ($25.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Bessie M 2-1 4th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Be aware that the AE's (#11, #12, #13) all merit respect if any get in..

Most Likely: #1 Fredricksburg 2-1: Came in debut after bad break.. WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #3 Irsaal: Strong page for task; Dam a half to St. Liam 6th
Next Best: #8 Summer Shiner 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Brickyard Kitten 6-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-5
3: 5
4: 1-2-3-4-5-6
5: 1-3-8-12

3x1x6x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/5,6/3/1,6,11,13,14,15,16) Paid $388.50 ($194.25 for .50)


6th: Win-R, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Classy group. As mentioned by Andy Serling on Tuesday ATR, you have to wonder where other speed is going to come from here because if no one pressures Yield Bogey (5-1), he'll wire this. Swift Warrior (6-1) was last seen being beaten 2 lengths by Casino Host and Papaw Bodie in the G2 Muniz. What price would those two be in here? Nine O Wonderful (8-1) won the meet's first race closing into soft splits. Right One (3-1) is field's biggest earner and is lauded in Mike Welsch's Workout Report for :23.1 final quarter in last drill and spirited gallop-out..

Most Likely: #7 Right One 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Yield Bogey 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Swift Warrior 6-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Nine O Wonderful 8-1 5th


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nice counterpoint to boy's version an hour earlier. Derby Eve (8-1) is out of the mare that in prior meetings with Tiznow produced Colonel John, Mr. Hot Stuff & Kayce Ace. Gets 2nd outing here and moves to the lawn where her full sister (that's Kayce Ace) excelled..

Best Value: #2 Derby Eve 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Magnificent Shirl 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Elusive Fate 6-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Sandsarita 15-1 3rd


8th: 8th P.G. Johnson, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Top Tier Lass looks like your logical winner off sharp debut, but don't like reference from Welsch that she appeared rank in 8/23 drill. Too anxious in two turn debut? There are several potential emergers in here..

Most Likely: #3 Top Tier Lass 2-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Watsdachances 4-1 WON ($9.50)
Best Value: #9 Go Kitten Go 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Skyfall 12-1 7th


9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Check for SCR's as I'm not sure #1 Gimme Credit (2-1) will go in this well-matched set. Major player obviously if he does..

Best Value: #12 Pervis 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Gimme Credit 2-1 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Short Shrift 3-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Wishingonadream 30-1 4th


10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Yeesh. Tough sequence gets no help from this finale. Think I have to give She Be Bunny another chance. One of the few things Leparoux has done right of late is win on the front end..

Best Value: #7 She Be Bunny 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Raquel 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Comment 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Accent 10-1 7th


@$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-5
8: 3-6-7-9
9: 1-6-12
10: 1-2-7-8-9-10-11

2x4x3x7 = 168 x .50 = $84


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[atolunch]

Best of luck today, through the end of the week!

Thanks again for the hospitality during our recent visit, it was a blast.

Please check your early P4, in the 5th race, #6 is scratched, think you want the #8 there.

In your late P4, in the 8th race, I think Skyfall is #6, not #4 as listed.

Let's get the Byk train rolling right through the Holiday!!!

[IrishofNDMan]

Steve, what do you think of the DQ of the 5, I know it killed me.

[pointman]

Great job by Jose Espinoza schooling Rosario in the 2nd. Shocked that the stewards were awake enough to make the appropriate DQ.

[docicu3]

Anybody else think Scofield caused the majority of the early contact in the 2nd??

[ADJMK]

Surely finally had a winner. Obvious they were going to take me down.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Anybody else think Scofield caused the majority of the early contact in the 2nd??

By refusing to give up his lane so Rosario could get out of a pickle?

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by pointman

By refusing to give up his lane so Rosario could get out of a pickle?

We've seen much worse with no dq, pretty bogus to me.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

We've seen much worse with no dq, pretty bogus to me.

The hole was not there for the 5. Espinoza schooled Rosario by holding his ground. Last time I checked the rules you can't force a horse out of your way because you are blind switched. There was nothing bogus about that DQ.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

We've seen much worse with no dq, pretty bogus to me.

Seen a lot worse this meet but Rosario the new boy so pick on him. I thought he only likes to go wide and lose ground.

[IrishofNDMan]

You didn't see a hole open?? Contact was made by the 2 coming in trying to close the gap on the 5.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by pointman

The hole was not there for the 5. Espinoza schooled Rosario by holding his ground. Last time I checked the rules you can't force a horse out of your way because you are blind switched. There was nothing bogus about that DQ.

I knew this one was going to be grey more than black and white as to whether the two closed an opening that was there for the five, could have gone either way IMO so no big deal....you'll find people who see it both ways especially if they had action.....

[pointman]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

You didn't see a hole open?? Contact was made by the 2 coming in trying to close the gap on the 5.

No I did not. What you are claiming was an open hole was Rosario forcing his way into the path of the 2. What you think was the 2 coming in on the 5 was in reality the 2 holding his ground and appearing to come in when in reality the 5 ws trying to force him out. I thought this was pretty clear and a good job by the stewards,

For the record, I did not have a penny on the race.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by docicu3

I knew this one was going to be grey more than black and white as to whether the two closed an opening that was there for the five, could have gone either way IMO so no big deal....you'll find people who see it both ways especially if they had action.....

Sorry doc, but I have to disagree with you on this one. I did not have money on the race, but thought it was pretty clear. If I had bet the 5, I would have to accept that he was properly DQ'd. The 2 almost certainly would not have caught the 5 if the 5 had a clean trip, but the 2 probably does win if the 5 doesn't force his way out.

[IrishofNDMan]

Well I'm bias cause I had a $30 5/5 double that I would have just cashed, wonder how much that cost me.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

Well I'm bias cause I had a $30 5/5 double that I would have just cashed, wonder how much that cost me.

38.40 for $2.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

Steve, what do you think of the DQ of the 5, I know it killed me.

I was a little better off with Brazilian Court too. Have to watch it again but first reaction was he was bullying his way into the slot.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

38.40 for $2.

Don't rub the salt in the wound..lol...That was a tough DQ to swallow...

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

Well I'm bias cause I had a $30 5/5 double that I would have just cashed, wonder how much that cost me.

Cost me P3 & P4 but that how this yr's Spa has gone.

08/29/2012 10:34:55 AM (PDT) Bet Saratoga, Race 2, $1.00 PK3 5 / 1-5 / 3 $5.00

08/29/2012 10:33:46 AM (PDT) Bet Saratoga, Race 2, $1.00 PK4 5,7 / 3,5 / 1,3 / 1,2,5,12 $32.00