The SUPER Super Derby

#1 09-19-2006, 08:46 AM

An interesting match-up in Saturday's Super Derby (gr. II) will be LAWYER RON the LANGFUHR colt,facing off against
STRONG CONTENDER, with the winner likely going on to the Classic. Also possible is California invader POINT DETERMINED, who worked five furlongs in :59 4/5 at Santa Anita Monday.

LAWYER RON , making his first start since starting from post 17, and finishing 12th in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), held off 30-1 shot Smokeyjonessutton to win the $250,000 Inaugural St. Louis Derby at Fairmount Park in Collinsville, Ill., on a late August Evening, 2006

Gander · #2 09-19-2006, 08:56 AM

Welcome back Secretariat. Nice picture.

#3 09-19-2006, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Welcome back Secretariat. Nice picture.

thanks Gander, Steve and I both agreed that posting on the old spot was just impossible.

the super derby should be a good race, its got three headline acts, LR, SC and PD who is a lock to show. should have a 7 or 8 horse field, its what there is this weekend, nothing else much running, next weekend, you have the Hawthorne gold cup and the kentucky cup races. PERFECT DRIFT runs in kentucky and skips a trip to illinois and our track troubles

show up at the race that is, not a lock to show, yuk yuk....

#4 09-19-2006, 09:19 AM

Great race for that track....that is the track I was raised to learn the game around and it gives me some pride to see them doing well with the slots and getting horses like this in there for a big race...good to see...should be a nice race....Personally, I think very little seperates Point Determined, Lawyer Ron and Strong Contender at 1 1/8 miles....

slotdirt · #5 09-19-2006, 09:24 AM

I just don't think Point Determined is that good. The Cali 3YO's from earlier this year have proven to be a cut below.

I wonder when we'll see Sweetnorthern back - he worked the other day.

Gander · #6 09-19-2006, 09:25 AM

Personally, I think very little seperates Point Determined, Lawyer Ron and Strong Contender at 1 1/8 miles

I disagree. I think Strong Contender is much better than these, if they all run their race. While I think he was a bit overhyped this spring, especially on the ESPN board, I think hes a lot better than Point Determined and Lawyer Ron. I expect him to win this race by open lengths.

SniperSB23 · #7 09-19-2006, 09:26 AM

Strong Pretender is the biggest fraud in racing. He's the third best horse in Ward's overrated barn and will not win here.

#8 09-19-2006, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Great race for that track....that is the track I was raised to learn the game around and it gives me some pride to see them doing well with the slots and getting horses like this in there for a big race...good to see...should be a nice race....Personally, I think very little seperates Point Determined, Lawyer Ron and Strong Contender at 1 1/8 miles....

my knock on LR pre derby was he was overraced,a dozen or so races by May 2006, and i waited for his injury announcement; turns out they let him run through the derby with bone chips.
he also was slower than SMARTY JONES, even though he had completed the SW, rebel, ark derby trifecta of preps races just like SJ. Now that he is back, i think he will defintinely hit the board here, and may or may not be the favorite.

Pointg5 · #9 09-19-2006, 09:36 AM

Lawyer Ron easily, PD is average, if it was a mile at Belmont Strong Contender would have a chance, but it's not and he will flounder...

blackthroatedwind · #10 09-19-2006, 09:39 AM

I'll jump on the Strong Contendor bandwagon as well.

He's just a better horse than these ( I think he is the best of Ward's 3YOs ).

Buffymommy · #11 09-19-2006, 09:40 AM

Isn't this one of the tracks that Lawyer Ron loves? Honestly, I think he has this one. It may be closer than I want, but I think he gets it done.

Revolution · #12 09-19-2006, 09:42 AM

they should rename this the " super overhyped derby". lawyer ron, strong contender, and point determined are all overrated.

SniperSB23 · #13 09-19-2006, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'll jump on the Strong Contendor bandwagon as well.

He's just a better horse than these ( I think he is the best of Ward's 3YOs ).

Hope you don't lose too much on him.

I don't care if they are running on quicksand, 1:45.24 for a mile and a sixteenth at Belmont is pathetic and a 109 Beyer is ridiculous. Thanks to that 32 point Beyer adjustment though he'll be overbet like usual and give me value on the other horses.

blackthroatedwind · #14 09-19-2006, 09:55 AM

The chances of my betting that race are slim to none.

No doubt July 4th was a tricky day, and in retrospect the figures were too high, but I still believe Strong Contendor is better than the horses he faces Saturday, but I will take another look when they draw.

I am confident he is the best of the " mediocre three " in Ward's barn.

Pointg5 · #15 09-19-2006, 09:57 AM

I will say that LR steps up and puts up at least a 110 Beyer and at least a negative 1 Thorograph...This horse is automatic...

kentuckyrosesinmay · #16 09-19-2006, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I will say that LR steps up and puts up at least a 110 Beyer and at least a negative 1 Thorograph...This horse is automatic...

I like him in here as well PointG. You and I both really like this horse. I don't know about him running a 110 BSF, but I would say that he has an excellent shot at running above a 105 unless the BSFs are biased against this track (wouldn't surprise me; seems to happen a lot down there). The thing about LR is that he will fight them down the lane. He may take the lead in this race. I don't know if he will yet, I have to see the other entries. I also am going to go watch replays of the big 3's last starts.

*Baffert always scares me when he ships into races such as these.

#17 09-19-2006, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Personally, I think very little seperates Point Determined, Lawyer Ron and Strong Contender at 1 1/8 miles

I disagree. I think Strong Contender is much better than these, if they all run their race. While I think he was a bit overhyped this spring, especially on the ESPN board, I think hes a lot better than Point Determined and Lawyer Ron. I expect him to win this race by open lengths.

I don't know man....you could tell that PD would get better with racing experience and age and he has had time since the Swaps to get that now...he could be dangerous.....as for Lawyer Ron, he should be the deserving favorite....hell, he is 2nd off the layoff and owns a HUGE pair of wins over that track earlier in the year that can't be denied (Fair Grounds meet). I saw the way he got over that track in person and it was impressive....I have always liked Strong Contender and he very well may be run big in here, but I still like Lawyer Ron in this spot....Remember, Strong Contenders' best races were long, one-turn races....

Gander · #18 09-19-2006, 10:12 AM

Good points Cunningham. I just happen to think a lot of Strong Contender even though I cant help agree with those who find him overrated. He is definetely an underqchiever to this point and he may like you said be better going one turn. Should be a good race. I think out of all of them Point Determined is the slowest and will offer up the "worst value" betting wise.

Pointg5 · #19 09-19-2006, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I like him in here as well PointG. I don't know about him running a 110 BSF, but I would say that he has an excellent shot at running above a 105 unless the BSFs are biased against this track (wouldn't surprise me; seems to happen a lot down there). The thing about LR is that he will fight them down the lane. He may take the lead in this race. I don't know if he will yet, I have to see the other entries. I also am going to go watch replays of their last starts.

*Baffert always scares me when he ships into races such as these.

He's got it in him to run a 110, he had no breaks from Fall through Spring, he had a tightener and I believe he's ready to go forward...

I was watching Replays of races last January and I saw his replay of that race a La Downs, the way he went over that track was a thing of beauty...That's why I became a fan of him, I have no eye and even I could tell he loved that track...

#20 09-19-2006, 10:19 AM

SC reminds me of FLOWER ALLEY last year. they both started their years later than the first string but yet FA managed to make a great year of it. If SC is gonna get to the level that we all held FA at, prior to his recent losses, he will have to step up in this race, and he may just well do that. i hven't seen PD's times out west, but i think he has been kept short, like 8,8.5f,
and wonder if he can get up for the win. at the same time, he was one of only a few i had that had multiple trilpe digit beyers headed for the derby if my memory is correct.

this is a good race, i will bet it, the trifecta for certain.