12/26: Santa Anita (Opening Day)

[Kasept]

One of the great dates in racing, and certainly in Los Angeles sports, arrives today with Santa Anita's traditional 'Boxing Day' renewal. Beyond the welcome addition to the venue menu for horseplayers, this edition of the Arcadian stand features a return to an organic dirt surface that should herald the long-standing frontispiece of racing in California, speed... While we won't know the idiosyncrasies of the new sand and clay main track for a period of time, you can expect that horses that need to go fast early likely won't be compromised on it the way they generally are on synthetic strips.

With the opening of the Great Race Place comes an increase in takeout statewide on 2 and 3 horse wagers. This increase was added by the California Horse Racing Board as a purse structure booster to shore up flagging entry boxes and quell the exodus of horses out of the region. The increase, which will take money out of all of our pockets, is hardly an ideal response to issues largely created by earlier missteps by the CHRB including the requisite installation of synthetic surfaces at tracks that run more than 30 days annually. But the anti-California 'boycott' movement the takeout hike has produced feels like a response that penalizes the wrong party. California racing, long a bookend of quality on the game's American landscape, is asking for horseplayers help, more or less, with this 'price increase'.

For years, California was well below the national averages in takeout, and I don't recall too much appreciation being heaped on it then for that quality. Spitting in the face of California horsemen and owners now when their product is truly in a bad spot and can use our help, seems like a punitive measure. If you find the increases in the 2 (22.68%) and 3 (23.68%) horse wagers usurious, focus on WPS wagers and their low 15.43% rake, or swing toward P3 and P4 plays which at least spread the 23.68% out to a lower level of impact.

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas, enjoyed the last week of the ATR broadcast year, and are looking forward to the quasi-official start to 2011 today at Santa Anita...


SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES (CHANGES AFTER 1PM)


MAIN TRACK IS LISTED AS GOOD; OFF THE TURF


1st: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Streets of Heaven 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Capture the Call 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Film Fortune 30-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Victorian Prince 12-1 7th


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Double D's Diamond 5-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #2 Rockin Harbor 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Ultimate Question 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Brite Red Reason 8-1 8th

$1 Exacta (5-2) Paid $54.00
$1 Trifecta (5-2-8) Paid $146.20


3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Valley Cat 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #5 Anga 12-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Dave's Ruler 8-1 5th
Super Add: #7 B's Lucky Strike 15-1 7th


4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

The first straight event of the meet features The Factor, a huge disappointment at .70 four weeks ago under Rosario. Visiting ATR Friday, Baffert came close to a victory guarantee, noting that the move to Bejarano reflcted his unhappiness with the ride on the $250k War Front colt in November. Expect the grey to be involved early; Mandella trainee Ransom Demand, a Diamond A homebred, is half to Devil May Care (Malibu Moon) and Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor), and may be overlooked in his dirt bow after two ordinary tries to start his career. He adds blinkers today, and being by Grand Slam out of the productive Red Ransom mare, may jump forward; Siegel Family Forestry colt Hope and Believe debuts for Ron Ellis with some high expectations. His dam Hope Rises (Mr. Greeley) was 4/8 with a stakes win, and hails from the prodigous Ahpo Hel, a Mr. Leader daughter that dropped 11 winners from 15 foals, 5 of which earned $100k or more. Among her best was the ill-fated and largely forgotten Penny's Reshoot (Turkey Shoot), the 1994 Prioress (G1) winner over Heavenly Prize under Johnny V. (1:09.0; 101 Beyer). Ahpo Hel also produced Twin Propeller, the dam of Mount Joy Stables' Air France who combined with Smooth Jazz to get Smooth Air..

Most Likely: #9 The Factor 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #6 Ransom Demand 12-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Hope and Believe 9-2 5th
Super Add: #10 Houston Harbor 4-1 2nd

$1 Pick 3 (5/10/9) Paid $82.70


<$75 P4 Play::

1: 1-5-7
2: 2-5-8-9
3: 3-5-10
4: 6-9

3x4x3x2 = $72


5th: CA-Breeders' Champion, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Arresting Officer 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Woodman's Luck 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Contemplated 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 SCR


6th: 38th La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Thoroughly deep and intriguing edition of this standard as eye-crossing collection of 13 missies bid for last sophomore gold ring of the year. 10 of these have won stakes of some kind, with Champagne d'Oro the leading heroine copping G1 laurels in the 7f Test and 1m (one turn) Acorn. There is a bit more speed signed on here than in the Malibu, so tactical types feel like the right kind to employ. While Switch, Always a Princess, Pica Slew and Malibu Pier all are eligible for success here, my inclination is to try and hook the best priced logicals with the 2 esoteric 'Vivas' at high tabs. Cecil's Arte Viva and Biancone's Patriotic Viva are going to be enormous totes and both have qualities about them to like. Biancone, superb 2nd/layoff, sends his Whywhywhy filly with Smith, who can set up shop behind Pica Slew for an ideal stalk and pounce trip. Cecil's charge, by Giant's Causeway and possible to move up on the main, is from as classy a female family as you'll find having been dropped by Helsinka. Herself a daughter of the brilliant 2,000 Guineas/Dewhurst winner Pennekamp, she is herself out of Street Cry half-sister Helsinki, thereby a half to Shamardal. Has worked sharp on the new SA strip, and boasts the potent route to sprint move in this spot..

SCR #1 Pica Slew; #12 Arte Viva

Best Value: #13 Bonnie Blue Flag 10-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Champagne d'Oro 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Patriotic Viva 30-1 10th
Super Add: #9 Always a Princess 9-2 4th


7th: 11th Sir Beaufort (G3), 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Hey, here's a question...How's that sale of Sidney's Candy coming along?

SCRATCH #3 Bogie #4 Sebastian Flyte #8 Make Music For Me #9 Accelerant

Most Likely: #5 Sidney's Candy 8-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #6 Indian Firewater 8-1 2nd


8th: 59th Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (DD, Super)

Like the La Brea an hour earlier, this event is as good as it gets. Historically, this race is won by class types that may haveflirted with Triple Crown competition or gotten a late start to their career or season. Stretching sprinters are capable here, but they need to be exceptional sorts. The Malibu Beyer par is a 104, and is almost always run in <1:22.0. Baffert's emergent Alcindor and Bonde's hard-hitting Smiling Tiger figure to be the ones to catch in the lane..

Best Value: #3 Thiskyhasnolimit 12-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Noble's Promise 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Alcindor 4-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Paris Vegas 20-1 10th


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Gifted Student 7-2 4th
Best Value: #11 Wanna Chat 8-1 WON ($18.60)
Next Best: #2 Breakmark 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Swiss Emperor 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Forward Commitment 9-2 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 9
5: 2-9
6: 11-13
7: 5-6
8: 2-3-5
9: 2-6-11

1x2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-9-11-13
7: 5-6
8: 2-3-5
9: 2-6-11

4x2x3x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve