Racetracks should start measuring wind direction

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The last 8 two-turn dirt route races at Saratoga have all been run on a day when only a single two-turn dirt route was carded.

* Sep 4th: Woodward was lone dirt route

* Sep 3rd: Saratoga Dew was lone dirt route

* Sep 2nd: No dirt routes

* Sep 1st: Regal Ransom alw lone dirt route

* Aug 30th: National Pride alw lone dirt route

* Aug 29th: Personal Ensign was lone dirt route

* Aug 28th: Travers was lone dirt route

* Aug 27th: Pleasant Colony was lone dirt route

* Aug 26th: El Real Madrd wins lone dirt route


The Ragozin Sheets and Thoro-Graph say they pay people to get wind direction measurements at almost every track ... I think it's time tracks start doing that.

If you watch the opening to the Saratoga replay show on MSG+ yesterday - it starts with a "weather report" that says 'Forecast: Cloudy' and 'Tempature: Mid 70's' ... who the hell cares about what the sky looks like and what the tempature was? That's totally worthless information. The wind impacts both fractional clockings and final time. An effort should be made for it to be accounted for. And when it's displayed for the public - it should be displayed in terms of "stretch headwind" - "stretch tail-wind" "crosswind with horses on far turn" or "crosswind against horses on far turn" at the given MPH .. instead of being displayed as 'Winds out of the Northwest at 12MPH'

This is not such a big deal when you have multiple races on the same surface carded because you'll see the impact the wind has in your variant and you can adjust for it. But when you only have one stand-alone race .. it's big.

Look at the Woodward yesterday. The raw pace was 102 and the raw final was 94. Obviously anyone who's paid attention to this meet knows that the track has been slower than par day in and day out all meet long. But, initally I thought the Woodward pace was pretty damn quick. It was a +8 despite a runaway winner - you had longshot 3rd place finisher Tranquil Manner close from 16 lengths back after a half mile - to finish 3rd while making up 10+ lengths late and appearing to pass everything collapsing behind the winner.

This is what Pletcher said after the race...

“The final time I think was reflective of the racetrack,” Pletcher said. “When you see a race like the Forego go in 1:22-and-change [for seven furlongs] to me it’s playing in a one-turn race at least a full second slower, you got to anticipate it’s going to be even more than that in a two-turn race; pretty strong headwind down the lane if you look at the flags.”

If what he said is true .. than obviously the pace was aided by the wind to appear faster than it really was in relation to the final time. This means that Tranquil Manner was not sucking up quite as much as I thought. It means that Mine That Bird's fade wasn't quite as excusable as I first thought because he was rushed into a pace that was more average than real quick. Now, if they card another two-turn dirt route or two yesterday ... the variant likely picks up the wind and you can adjust for it.

[Sightseek]

* Sep 4th: Woodward was lone dirt route

* Sep 3rd: Saratoga Dew was lone dirt route

* Sep 2nd: No dirt routes

* Sep 1st: Regal Ransom alw lone dirt route

* Aug 30th: National Pride alw lone dirt route

* Aug 29th: Personal Ensign was lone dirt route

* Aug 28th: Travers was lone dirt route

* Aug 27th: Pleasant Colony was lone dirt route

* Aug 26th: El Real Madrd wins lone dirt route

It would have been pretty easy to have arranged these races so that two routes appeared on the same day and I wonder what the reasoning behind it was (or if the racing office even noticed).

Interesting post Doug.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

It would have been pretty easy to have arranged these races so that two routes appeared on the same day and I wonder what the reasoning behind it was (or if the racing office even noticed).

I've heard it said before by racing officals there years ago that people who come to the track "like the two-turn dirt races the most" because they start right in front of the crowd.

Obviously, it's the total opposite for handicappers. You hate seeing a single isolated stand-alone race because they're a pain in the ass to gauge when you review them after the race is over.

I don't think you can ask them to try and stack days up where they run 3 or 4 of these races a day - and than have long gaps where they go several days without running any.... but, if they're going to keep up this one-a-day dirt route trend ... having wind direction information becomes even more useful.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've heard it said before by racing officals there years ago that people who come to the track "like the two-turn dirt races the most" because they start right in front of the crowd.

Obviously, it's the total opposite for handicappers. You hate seeing a single isolated stand-alone race because they're a pain in the ass to gauge when you review them after the race is over.

I don't think you can ask them to try and stack days up where they run 3 or 4 of these races a day - and than have long gaps where they go several days without running any.... but, if they're going to keep up this one-a-day dirt route trend ... having wind direction information becomes even more useful.

I'm probably not going to get much agreement on the issue, but I don't like the stretched out meet. 3 or 4 years ago they seemed to run more routes and the Stakes were grouped. You always read complaints how they would be running a route for 3 year olds the same day as a 3 year old stake and some felt that took away from the stake, but you had a comparision afterwards. The allowance horses were probably not going to run in the Stake if they didn't have another option anyway. (though they could even card consistent claimers at the distance)

Good example here, where they intended to run two routes on the same day, though we got a good rain between them and the track was later sealed:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=3

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=9

Corinthian was coming off a decent lay-off so it is very doubtful that if there was no other option that day he would have gone in the Stake. People are pretty happy to sit on their horses until the easiest spot comes up.

[richard]

It's a point but is there any real validity here ? If you have a tail wind down the backstretch one can assume that has as much a benefit as a head wind is a negative down the stretch .

[the_fat_man]

Before 'advanced' expectations, how about we setting for some more basic ones. Like:

1) tracks correctly and consistently timing their races
2) more accurate results charts --- and more comprehensive ones -- how about calls at every furlong?
3) consistency when it comes to stewards' decisions.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by richard

It's a point but is there any real validity here ? If you have a tail wind down the backstretch one can assume that has as much a benefit as a head wind is a negative down the stretch .

You have to understand simple basic handicapping to get it. Anyone who doesn't - won't get it.

A backstretch tailwind - and stretch headwind is going to make the pace appear faster than it really was - and going to make the come home time appear slower than it really was.

It's very important information in determining what the pace truly was.


Say you have a day where there is a 30 mile per hour crosswind blowing at the horses back through the far turn. Horses will fly through that turn. On a day like that - a one-turn 7 furlong race will produce a quick time - where a two-turn route won't because the horses have to run into that 30 mph cross wind on the first turn.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Before 'advanced' expectations, how about we setting for some more basic ones. Like:

1) tracks correctly and consistently timing their races
2) more accurate results charts --- and more comprehensive ones -- how about calls at every furlong?
3) consistency when it comes to stewards' decisions.

I don't think it's asking a whole lot for tracks to measure wind direction a couple of times a day.

The Ragozin Sheets and Thoro-Graph claim they have people doing it at almost every track. If small entities like they are can do it at dozens of tracks - it shouldn't be a tall order for a track to do it.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't think it's asking a whole lot for tracks to measure wind direction a couple of times a day.

The Ragozin Sheets and Thoro-Graph claim they have people doing it at almost every track. If small entities like they are can do it at dozens of tracks - it shouldn't be a tall order for a track to do it.

It what you write is true, then we'd have much more accurate results charts and there wouldn't be so many tracks out there that are unable to time their races correctly/consistently.

Ask yourself this, which matters more in the big picture scheme of things: wind direction/velocity or accurate beaten lengths information?

I can pretty much estimate the wind by viewing the headon replay. If it's noticeable in the replays then you know it's a factor.

It takes me a lot longer to correct bad charts. In fact, I've stopped doing this as I just can't keep up --- especially since I focus on more than a single track.

[Travis Stone]

Does anyone have an idea of the equipment necessary to measure wind/velocity? No sarcasm, legitimately asking...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Ask yourself this, which matters more in the big picture scheme of things: wind direction/velocity or accurate beaten lengths information?

I think asking for accurate beaten length information is asking for them to change the way Equibase chart callers call races.

Those guys are under pressure to get a result chart out in as fast as 5 to 10 minutes after the race is complete. They do a remarkably good job considering the time restraints ... but it looks like a terrible job at the same time because they're rushed into making a lot of mistakes.

You're not exactly asking for a lot with wind direction velocity. Like I said, If Thoro-Graph and Ragozin can both afford to pay on-track observers at dozens of tracks to send them measurements .. it shouldn't be hard or expensive for one track to do it at their own track.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does anyone have an idea of the equipment necessary to measure wind/velocity? No sarcasm, legitimately asking...

I'm not sure. Maybe find out who the sheets companies use to do it at LAD and ask them.

Here's Ragozin's takes on wind direction:

The effect of wind on running time was something I noticed almost from the first day I started working seriously on figures. Frankly, it was hard to miss if you were at Belmont Park on October 15th 1954.

A hurricane was brewing and a two-year-old filly named Vestment was blown along to what was then a world record for six furlongs 1:07 4/5ths. Racing entirely on a straightaway down the old Widener Chute. In those days, all two-year-olds ran out of the Widener Chute, and as I started working on the figures their times looked so erratic I figured out the wind was the culprit. Once I began to make wind corrections, betting 2-year-olds in New York became very profitable.

Vestment was not some new Native Dancer. I don't believe she ever won again, because that single performance made her owner shrink from dropping her into claiming races, where she undoubtedly belonged.

Today I pay observers at all major tracks to give me reports on wind. They can tell me exactly when there is a sudden change of wind during the course of the racing card. When I started my wind calculations more than 40 years ago, however, my wind information came by teletype from airports. I was forced to assume that a 15-knot northwest wind recorded at Fort Lauderdale's airport would also prevail at Gulfstream Park. Once I started using local observers, I found that these assumptions held up well - giving me about 90 percent accuracy. Using the observers though, makes the wind calculations 99 percent accurate.

[Travis Stone]

I can probably get the wind direction from the airport no problem, and start using it on the signal. Why not? A few extra mins of work might help 5 people, but if those 5 people bet, it's worth it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I can probably get the wind direction from the airport no problem, and start using it on the signal. Why not? A few extra mins of work might help 5 people, but if those 5 people bet, it's worth it.

Equibase also gives wind for each track with the scratches in the morning.

This is what they have today for LAD:

Wind WNW at 6 mph

Probably all you'd have to do is translate "WNW" into headwind/tailwind/crosswind ... and maybe note any trend of it picking up markedly or changing direction.

[richard]

You can use a ping pong ball...
http://www.uen.org/Lessonplan/preview?LPid=2454

or an anemometer ... they are reasonably priced but the software to translate and post real time readings to an infield screen might be expensive .
http://www.weathershop.com/davis_anemometer.htm