LWM's 7/11 Hollywood Selections

[letswastemoney]

Hey. I was looking at RockHardTen's post and figured I would post my selections for Hollywood with some comments.

I am the worst handicapper on this board though so you probably shouldn't listen to me (lol). But it's good exercise to do this anyway.

***After I wrote all this, I realized all my top selections are chalk. Which means, I should win every race at Hollywood!!! j/k

Race 4

Fire Break looks good here because of who claimed him. Morey has a shocking 45% win percentage on first off the claim starts and the horse was pretty good before he switched barns as well. I must admit though, I am concerned that the last 2 times he's tried the 40000 level he has failed to hit the board...I still like him to win though

Kris Silver's 2 races in February would be good enough to win this, but is he the same horse? Use underneath.

Hammurabi is also probably good enough and should move forward 2nd start off the bench. I'd use him in exactas as well.

Race 5

::throws hands up in the air::

I'll be honest, I have no idea what I am doing when it comes to low level claiming races. All I know in this race is that the two 30-1 shots should probably be eliminated from the top slots of your wagers. F lower level claiming races.

Race 6

Nostalgic Bid should win

Roos on the Loose and Peanut Butter Boy should get good stalking trips.

As for Boomtown, I am worried that Nostalgic Bid will crush him early on. When there's two speed horses, chances are only one of them will survive, and I don't expect Nostalgic Bid to wilt under pressure from Boomtown.

The two first time starters are question marks, but their connections do not have good stats.

Battle Point has a chance to hit the board based on his race 2 starts back where he was 4th with a beyer in the 50s.

Race 7

Another race where all the horses look the same to me, and it's not a claiming race...

Mensa Heat looks slightly faster on paper and Scored has a trainer with a decent statistic with horses coming off layoffs (23%). I'm probably not playing this race, but if you put a gun to my head, I'd use these two.

Race 8

Bellofthebridle faces fillies for the very first time? Should crush these

Okay maybe Dawnie Macho has a chance, but will be overbet off that 90 beyer. Maybe play some longer shots instead of her in the second slot and see what happens? It's not a good idea to use this filly in exotics if you go with Bellofthebridle.

She'll Heir and Moonstruck Maya look most likely to improve out of the rest of the field. Notice Gaines is 31% with horses who won their last start. Use them underneath.

Race 9

Stormin Rae will be very difficult to catch. Tribal Wish is probably better than what we've been seeing. She attracts a high percentage rider (although he failed me on Rail Trip...grr...). Woodman's Luck had a decent beyer in her bow. She should be in the mix near the wire.

Mandella and Freeman do not have good first time starter statistics, so I'm not sure their horses can be trusted.

Bonde does though. Tahoe Yodelor looks dangerous from the fact that Bonde wins with 28% of first time starters.


As I said, I'm not a good handicapper, and I normally don't even look at the whole card because I'm incompetent in the cheap low level claiming races. But we'll see.