Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings Chart as of 2/26/10

[Merlinsky]

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derb...raded_Earnings

Wow it's amazing how many horses I hear about on ATR are well below 20th place. I know it's early to assume all those above will make it or that the ones below won't earn more. I was just surprised. I'm always curious how much it'll take to get above the threshold should oversubscription happen. How likely an entrant is Blind Luck?

Is there anybody not on there that has been tossed around as up and coming? One I thought of was The Program, although I don't know much about him. Steve, were you guys talking about Coyote Legend the other day? I missed the name but after looking up the trainer I guessed you might mean that horse. I just remember him saying the sire was a head case.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derb...raded_Earnings

Wow it's amazing how many horses I hear about on ATR are well below 20th place. I know it's early to assume all those above will make it or that the ones below won't earn more. I was just surprised. I'm always curious how much it'll take to get above the threshold should oversubscription happen. How likely an entrant is Blind Luck?

Is there anybody not on there that has been tossed around as up and coming? One I thought of was The Program, although I don't know much about him. Steve, were you guys talking about Coyote Legend the other day? I missed the name but after looking up the trainer I guessed you might mean that horse. I just remember him saying the sire was a head case.

ODYSSEUS

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

ODYSSEUS

Currently 40-1 at Wynn. Love his stride and they way he finished in Alw win at Tampa. Tampa Bay Derby Next.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Odysseus still has upside ... but to me he looks much more like a suspect than a prospect right now.

In that Tampa race ... he crushed a nothing field .. but he only went 1.80 seconds faster than a really weak N1 in 6 month 5k claiming group at the same distance.

I thought the 91 Beyer he got was a pretty generous number and could have easily been lower.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Odysseus still has upside ... but to me he looks much more like a suspect than a prospect right now.

In that Tampa race ... he crushed a nothing field .. but he only went 1.80 seconds faster than a really weak N1 in 6 month 5k claiming group at the same distance.

I thought the 91 Beyer he got was a pretty generous number and could have easily been lower.

So, in DrugS speak, you are going to use him in your Derby Dreamer fantasy stable(s).

[Zaf]

Surprised that Jackson Bend is 24th.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

So, in DrugS speak, you are going to use him in your Derby Dreamer fantasy stable(s).

No chance.

Since I know you anticipate everything I type is now going to be a clever misdirection of the populace designed to fool ... I opted to outsmart you by calling it like I see it.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No chance.

Since I know you anticipate everything I type is now going to be a clever misdirection of the populace designed to fool ... I opted to outsmart you by calling it like I see it.

I wouldn't go quite that far, but you are pretty clever.

[Bogey]

I expected Nordic Truce to be nominated for the Triple Crown, but Clement has other ideas. I imagine the G3 Palm Beach next week, Transyvania @ KEE, and Crown Royal American Turf @ CD is the plan? I would like to see him take a shot at dirt / synthetic in the near future.

Doubles Partner should give him a real test next week.

The Turf Paradise horse, Uh Oh Bango looks good on earnings, will be running March 13th in the Rebel.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Wow it's amazing how many horses I hear about on ATR are well below 20th place. I know it's early to assume all those above will make it or that the ones below won't earn more. I was just surprised. I'm always curious how much it'll take to get above the threshold should oversubscription happen. How likely an entrant is Blind Luck?

Is there anybody not on there that has been tossed around as up and coming? One I thought of was The Program, although I don't know much about him. Steve, were you guys talking about Coyote Legend the other day? I missed the name but after looking up the trainer I guessed you might mean that horse. I just remember him saying the sire was a head case.

The vast majority of earnings on the GS list is from 2yo events, so the up and comers/late developers are of course well down the list. Look at the Derby Trail events that are yet to come to get a feel for how much money is going to pour in to those 3yo's.

March 6
1 1/16 Mile, Grade III GOTHAM STAKES ($250,000)

March 13
1 1/16 Mile, Grade III TAMPA BAY DERBY, Tampa Bay Downs ($300,000)
1 1/16 Mile, Grade II REBEL STAKES, Oaklawn Park ($300,000)
1 1/16 Mile, Grade II SAN FELIPE STAKES, Santa Anita ($150,000)

March 20
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I FLORIDA DERBY, Gulfstream Park ($750,000)

March 27
1 1/8 Mile, Grade II LOUISIANA DERBY, Fair Grounds ($750,000)
1 1/8 Mile, Grade II LANE’S END STAKES, Turfway Park ($500,000)
About 1 3/16, Group 2 UAE DERBY, Meydan Racecourse ($2,000,000)

March 28
1 1/8 Mile, Grade III SUNLAND DERBY, Sunland Park ($800,000)

April 3
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I WOOD MEMORIAL, Aqueduct ($750,000)
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I SANTA ANITA DERBY, Santa Anita ($750,000)
1 1/8 Mile, Grade III ILLINOIS DERBY, Hawthorne Race Course ($500,000)

April 10
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I TOYOTA BLUE GRASS STAKES, Keeneland ($750,000)
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I ARKANSAS DERBY, Oaklawn Park ($1,000,000)

April 17
1 1/16 Mile, Grade II COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES, Keeneland ($300,000)

Not including the preposterous $2,000,000 for the UAE Derby, there's $8,000,000 in graded stakes money that will be distributed between now and the Lexington.

$175,000 should be about the cutoff line to get into the Derby.

(BTW.. Coyote Legend came up with Bret Calhoun for his TX-bred stake win at Sam Houston. He doesn't appear to be any kind of Derby prospect, but Calhoun will likely start shopping for some open company stakes opportunities for him after his 91 Beyer effort last Saturday.)

[Merlinsky]

Thanks Steve. I knew there was a bunch of money to be had, but I'm glad to have the list. That is a crazy amount for the UAE Derby. I'm sure some of the cash will be nabbed by those already secure in graded earnings (I'd say your spot is safe if you've raked in $250K for instance), but if somebody's behind there's plenty of time to work it out. If they don't it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

I have every expectation that Lloydobler will eventually have the $$ to make the field if DeeTee wants him in.

[asudevil]

Just bet Ice Box at Wynn....85/1

C'mon Nicky Z!!

[lemoncrush]

I think the connections for Backtalk are in a good spot. He already has $172K banked in graded earnings from his 2-year old season, so going in that Friday night stakes race at Delta as a comeback was logical.
Why bring him back in one of the major preps off the long layoff, when you can bring him back in a paid workout at Delta.
It'll be interesting to see how he progresses in his next 2 preps.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I think the connections for Backtalk are in a good spot. He already has $172K banked in graded earnings from his 2-year old season, so going in that Friday night stakes race at Delta as a comeback was logical.
Why bring him back in one of the major preps off the long layoff, when you can bring him back in a paid workout at Delta.
It'll be interesting to see how he progresses in his next 2 preps.

I'll be shocked if he's ever relevant in major races again.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'll be shocked if he's ever relevant in major races again.

Whether he is or not remains to be seen. But unless he completely falls apart in the next 60 days, he'll be in the starting gate on May 1st based strictly on his performances last summer as a 2-year old.

Another reminder why the current graded earnings system for Derby eligibility is out of whack.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'll be shocked if he's ever relevant in major races again.

Very much disagree. That was a very solid performance off the layoff, considering the trip and the sharpness of the frontrunner who was coming in off two 90+ Beyer wins and had everything his way up front. Let's see what he does in the La Derby or whereever he goes but I think he's in the top 10 of 3yo's at this point.