12/31: Aqueduct ($25k C/O-Mandatory Pay)

Kasept · #1 12-31-2009, 07:08 AM

$33 Indy's Forum (4th) and $17 Cleric (6th), both beneficiaries of a strong gold rail Wednesday, helped create an ideal situation at Aqueduct with a mandatory payout $25k carryover on the year-ending afternoon card. The lone tally for me on the day was the 8th where $11 Mt. Glittermore keyed a nice $103.50 triple with Smokin Hero and Base Commander. Be sure to peruse the 12/30 charts and comments for horses that tried to rally from the two path out, as they were up against a very apparent speed track inside.

It's been a very fun year which featured a number of highlights for those that follow the opinions here. The big Magna 5 hit in January and P6 score during the summer were obviously the most notable, but highly accessible P4 plays continued to offer consistantly solid returns. I hope you did well in 2009 and that we all get to experience another enjoyable and profitable year in 2010.

Thanks to everyone for their support and encouragement in 2009, and I offer my best wishes for a wonderful New Year of health and hapiness to all the ATR listeners/Derby Trailers and their families...

Steve

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Dixie Night Out 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 L L Flying Notes 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Mine Over Matter 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Major Star 7-2 3rd

5th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Very interesting race with many here possible..

Most Likely: #2 Clemens 3-1 6th
Next Best: #6 U.S. Calvary 5-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Hedge Fund 12-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Yes It's the Truth 9-2 WON

6th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Keep Thinking 2-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Ex Pat 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Greatsilvermoment 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 West End 10-1 6th

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Stormy's Majesty 4-1 WON
Most Likely: #7 Vital Argument 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 Papa's Nice Cat 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Helvi 20-1 9th

8th: 71st Gallant Fox, 3+, 13f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Nite Light 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Reflect Times 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Borrowing Base 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Giant Chieftan 12-1 3rd

9th: NYB-CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Super)

Best Value: #1 Six Flings 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #2 Gargantua 9-2 5th
Next Best: #10 Good Karma 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Globemaster 8-1 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-4-8
5: 2-6
6: 6-10
7: 4-7-9
8: 10
9: 1-2

4x2x2x3x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-10
7: 4-7-9
8: 4-7-9-10
9: 1-2-10

2x3x4x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

pucknut · #2 12-31-2009, 07:15 AM

steve
interesting spread on the pick 4
if you single last years winner you could make it a $5 pick 3
spreading for price??
happy new year
thanks for bringing more joy into the greatest sport in the world
my new years resolution minimize the times i am the southern end of a northbound horse

Kasept · #3 12-31-2009, 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pucknut

steve
interesting spread on the pick 4
if you single last years winner you could make it a $5 pick 3
spreading for price??
happy new year
thanks for bringing more joy into the greatest sport in the world
my new years resolution minimize the times i am the southern end of a northbound horse

puck,

I always find Marathons slightly inscrutable. Strange things happen as a result of sometimes oddly developing pace scenarios. Nite Light certainly to be respected and a single out of necessity in the P6, but I think there's plenty of opportunity for an offbeat winner there...

Thanks for the very kind compliment. I think that it's been an absolutely great year for racing and as always, am tickled to have any chance to help make it more pleasurable for players and fans.

Best to you and yours for '10!
SB

Gate Dancer · #4 12-31-2009, 08:18 AM

Gonna mess around with Tiger's Rock in the marathon and hope he takes to the dirt a little.

I also want to say thanks for all the work on the show and website. I have purchased 3 books on racing for the first time in years and have found each to refresh my thinking on this great game. They are: Six Secrets of Successful Bettors, Exotic Wagering, and Betting Thouroughbreds in the 21st Century. I love the discussions with Steve Davidowitz you have done on ATR.

My New Years wish is for Jack Van Berg to get one more horse he can take on the triple crown trail !!!

Happy New Year.

MaTH716 · #5 12-31-2009, 08:49 AM

Question: With the weather in New York an absolute mess. What happens with the money that they must payout today if they should cancel the card?

herkhorse · #6 12-31-2009, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Question: With the weather in New York an absolute mess. What happens with the money that they must payout today if they should cancel the card?

I was just going to ask the same thing.

Gander · #7 12-31-2009, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I was just going to ask the same thing.

I just called there and they said they are running. We'll see how it goes but the first race (at least) is a go.

herkhorse · #8 12-31-2009, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I just called there and they said they are running. We'll see how it goes but the first race (at least) is a go.

Maybe so , but I'd still be curious as to what would happen to the $ if they did have to cancel.

Kasept · #9 12-31-2009, 10:37 AM

AQU SCR/CHG'S

4TH

9 Le Bonne Vie Early

5TH

4 French Transition Early
7 Laudable Early

9TH

4 Mighty Morris Early
9 Living Out a Dream Early

pointman · #10 12-31-2009, 10:52 AM

If the track is fair, or they all go thinking the bias is still in effect and they all have some speed, I get the feeling that whoever can close will win the first, the question is, who can close?

herkhorse · #11 12-31-2009, 11:05 AM

The Karakorum horse is mildly interesting in the 1st, except for Maylan Studart

pointman · #12 12-31-2009, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

The Karakorum horse is mildly interesting in the 1st, except for Maylan Studart

I feel the same way, I scored big on the same angle last Saturday, but am a bit hesitent that I can get the same thing twice in one week! I will take a shot on this one, though and hope the pace breaks down and this is the one to take advantage.

Esumner66 · #13 12-31-2009, 11:22 AM

I agree, I hit with her yesterday and can't believe that lightning would strike twice. But, she is just the kind of jockey that would win here as she would run contrary to what everyone is expecting.

3 inches plus out here on LI and expecting rain (but it is still pretty cold).

Liking 3,5,6 in a box. Still trying to figure out if the 10 fits...

GL,

Chuck

hoovesupsideyourhead · #14 12-31-2009, 11:25 AM

PICK 6 stab

1/2/5

2/11

6/10

9/10

2/9/10

7/10

pointman · #15 12-31-2009, 12:06 PM

Wow, Jara got back on a McLaughlin horse here in the 3rd? Makes Brilliant Son an easier toss for me personally!

pointman · #16 12-31-2009, 12:18 PM

Feel like this pk3 will blow up the tote board and agree with Andy that King Rush has a decent shot in the 5th, taking a shot with:

3- 1,2,6,8
4- 3,6,8
5- 6,9

Good Luck!

pointman · #17 12-31-2009, 01:46 PM

Late pk4 stab split with pmac:

$48
6- 3,6,7,10
7- 4,5,7,9
8- 10
9- 1,2,10

$10
6- 2,3,6,7,10
7- 4,5,7,9,10
8- 10
9- 2

Good Luck!

#18 12-31-2009, 02:22 PM

So much for a bias when I have a horse on the rail.

Mike Luzzi is Mush-o-matic.

#19 12-31-2009, 02:43 PM

$3 tri 10/1,3,4/1,3,4,7 $27

DJARUM · #20 12-31-2009, 03:02 PM

Race 9 $1 tri 7-8 // 1-2-6-7-10-11