10/9: Keeneland (4th-10th)

[Kasept]

Thursday action at Belmont was fun and lucrative even though P4's fell short. Single try of Sly (2nd in the 7th) in the late quad and pig-headed omission of Pletcher entry in the 4th in the early edition were the miscues, but there was lots of cashing throughout the afternoon to offset them. On top 'Best Value' Karakorum Elektra's narrow photo score in the Memories of Silver returned a sharp $15.40 win price and capped three straight winners for the $73.75 early P3 ($1), which got the day off to a nice start.

Later, the 6th race became key to the mutuel returns when Australis Princess ($8.00-1), Mystic City ($8.30-1) and I Do That ($3.85-1) combined for a $500 ($1) triple. The two pricey top finishers were worthy of inclusion as pedigree plays, with 'Princess' being by Werblin, off to an amazing start with grass routers, and 'Mystic' haling from City Zip who gets his share of lawn lovers. In addition, Mike Ferraro, who trains the runner up, was a noteworthy 24% W's on stretchouts of his charges. Hope you did well Thursday on what was as entertaining a mid-week card as you can find!

Keeneland opens today and note that cool, wet weather is the forecast. That typically makes for a tight polytrack...


KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Forest Trail 5-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Grassy Nellie 5-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Striking Dancer 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #11 Tight Precision 4-1 5th


5th: ALW/N2L, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Call Shot 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Pegasus Prancer 5-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Gun Rock 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Liston 4-1 WON


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Next Best: #12 Orchestrator 5-2 WON
Best Value: #11 Fugitive Angel 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Cautionary Tale 6-1 4th


7th: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Film Charm 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Alice's Smart 12-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Quite the Lady 6-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Diamond Song 5-1 4th


8th: 157th Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Excellent mix in this historic race, and while I love what he's done all year, Capt. Candyman Can (5-2) may be too short a price to embrace on the surface. Fatal Bullet's (2-1) main target comes in California next month. My Pal Charlie (8-1), last year's winner Sing Baby Sing (10-1) and appear to be the ones most likely to run their races while providing the prices you like to see in sprint events. Added dashes of Southwestern flavor for heat comes in presence of consistent Greeley's Conquest and Zia/PrM stake winner Ez Dreamer (Both 8-1)..

Best Value: #8 My Pal Charlie 8-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Capt. Candyman Can 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Fatal Bullet 2-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Sing Baby Sing 10-1 4th


9th: 58th Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 She Be Wild 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Negligee 12-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Beautician 5-2 5th
Super Add: #6 Screen Legend 20-1 10th

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 3-5 with 3-4-5-6 with 3-4-5-6-7-9 with 1-3-4-5-6-7-9-10 (2x3x4x5 = 120 x .10 = $12)

$0.10 Superfecta (5-3-9-7) Paid $208.84


10th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #8 SCR
Most Likely: #5 Banker's Choice 4-1
Next Best: #6 Redreamit 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 True Birkin 5-1 4th
High 5 Play: #11 Project Rose 5-1 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5
8: 3-4-7-8-10
9: 3-4-5-6-9
10: 5-6-8

2x5x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve