9/19: Belmont Park (4th-10th)

Kasept · #1 09-19-2009, 07:00 AM

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 22nd Noble Damsel (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Does Rutherienne win here? Probably.. Should you take $3 on a notorious hanger that refuses to win against whatever level of competition she faces? Absolutely not. Fred Seitz' filly has the hedge, Ramon and 5 pounds on the favorite. She's nearly as fast too and will be at least a $20 prop. I'll bite.

Best Value: #1 Meadow Saffron 15-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Rutherienne 1-2 WON
Next Best: #5 Quiet Meadow 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Social Queen 8-1 3rd

5th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Sunny 5-1 9th
Most Likely: #1 Es Mia 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Casa Di Vino 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Simple Western 8-1 WON

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 7 with 1-2-3-6 with 1-2-3-4-5-6 with All (1x4x5x7 = 140 x .10 = $14.00)

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Pictural 6-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Picou 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Brother Nick 10-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Crown Point 20-1 9th

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 4-5 with 4-5 with 2-3-6-8-9-11 with All (2x1x6x8 = 960 x .10 = $9.60)

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 D' Wildcard 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Live On the Edge 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Pavoratti's Soul 10-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Stroll for Acure 2-1 5th

8th: 120th Futurity (Gr. II), 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 D' Funnybone 6-5 WON
Next Best: #1 Discreetly Mine 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Successful Score 10-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Thiskyhasnolimit 12-1 3rd

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 1-6 with 1-6-7-8 with 1-3-6-7-8 with All (2x3x3x5 = 90 x .10 = $9.00)

9th: 103rd Matron (Gr. II), 2yo-F, 7f (DD, Super)

Very well-matched group of fillies.. Will play against 2-1 Violette fave..

Most Likely: #4 Awesome Maria 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Worship the Moon 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Speightful Lady 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Southern Truth 20-1 4th

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Terrific nightcap with mind-bendingly balanced bunch of solid state-breds. Respect ML fave #10 Scientist (3-1), but simply compelled to find prices here. Impossible finish to very tough P4..

Best Value: #2 Globemaster 8-1 10th
Most Likely: #12 Livin Large 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Too Amenable 8-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Gamblin Fever 15-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

Murderously tough quad..

7: 1-4
8: 1-6
9: 1-2-4-5-6-8
10: 2-5-12

2x2x6x3 = $72

P4 Paid $268.50

Good luck!
Steve

RockHardTen1985 · #2 09-19-2009, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

4th: 22nd Noble Damsel (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Does Rutherienne win here? Probably.. Should you take $3 on a notorious hanger that refuses to win against whatever level of competition she faces? Absolutely not. Fred Seitz' filly has the hedge, Ramon and 5 pounds on the favorite. She's nearly as fast too and will be at least a $20 prop. I'll bite.

Best Value: #1 Meadow Saffron 15-1
Most Likely: #7 Rutherienne 1-2
Next Best: #5 Quiet Meadow 5-1
Super Add: #6 Social Queen 8-1

5th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Sunny 5-1
Most Likely: #1 Es Mia 3-1
Next Best: #3 Casa Di Vino 4-1
Super Add: #2 Simple Western 8-1

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 7 with 1-2-3-6 with 1-2-3-4-5-6 with All (1x4x5x7 = 140 x .10 = $14.00)

Steve go check out the stakes thread in the main forum, I posted last night, we think exactly alike for the 4th-5th races... Good Luck.

ateamstupid · #3 09-19-2009, 12:36 PM

First time I've ever seen a 10-for-21 horse be called a notorious hanger.

On another note, has this meet been chalky enough so far? Favorites are winning at over 46%.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 09-19-2009, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

First time I've ever seen a 10-for-21 horse be called a notorious hanger.

On another note, has this meet been chalky enough so far? Favorites are winning at over 46%.

Most of her wins were in her 3yr old seasson, she does not win when shes supposed to, what is that?

the_fat_man · #5 09-19-2009, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Most of her wins were in her 3yr old seasson, she does not win when shes supposed to, what is that?

That's: not understanding race dynamics. This horse is far from a hanger.

RockHardTen1985 · #6 09-19-2009, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That's: not understanding race dynamics. This horse is far from a hanger.

Ok.
I guess I dont understand, I put 36$ into trying to beat her... I thought it was worth trying to beat her.

ateamstupid · #7 09-19-2009, 01:10 PM

It's not worth trying to beat any chalk at this track right now. Up over 47% now, it'll go up another percentage point when Ruthy wins.

RockHardTen1985 · #8 09-19-2009, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's not worth trying to beat any chalk at this track right now. Up over 47% now, it'll go up another percentage point when Ruthy wins.

Well IMO the pick 3's Im live to are all giant OVERLAYS.

ateamstupid · #9 09-19-2009, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Well IMO the pick 3's Im live to are all giant OVERLAYS.

Tough beat. Garcia almost butchered that one.

RockHardTen1985 · #10 09-19-2009, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Tough beat. Garcia almost butchered that one.

Um I still dont see her nose on the line, WTF

the_fat_man · #11 09-19-2009, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Tough beat. Garcia almost butchered that one.

Wait for the headon. Appears that Javier did all he could to put him in tight.

Certainly a 'hanger' performance by Rutherienne.

Bigsmc · #12 09-19-2009, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Um I still dont see her nose on the line, WTF

NYRA conspiring against you. Have they shown the photo yet? If you are complaining from what you see on the video, stop it.

ateamstupid · #13 09-19-2009, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

NYRA conspiring against you. Have they shown the photo yet? If you are complaining from what you see on the video, stop it.

They showed the photo for a good minute. It's about as close as you can get without a dead heat, but Ruthy was first. So much for those overlaid Pick 3's.

RockHardTen1985 · #14 09-19-2009, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

They showed the photo for a good minute. It's about as close as you can get without a dead heat, but Ruthy was first. So much for those overlaid Pick 3's.

Well I could not tell, clearly a lot harder with the 5 on the outside, they did not show any reverse angle....

ateamstupid · #15 09-19-2009, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Wait for the headon. Appears that Javier did all he could to put him in tight.

Certainly a 'hanger' performance by Rutherienne.

Yeah, Castellano tried to put him over the rail, but Garcia let Castellano get the jump on him, then decided not to switch outside when he could've. A little too confident, but the mare got it done somehow.

ateamstupid · #16 09-19-2009, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Well I could not tell, clearly a lot harder with the 5 on the outside, they did not show any reverse angle....

Look closely.

RockHardTen1985 · #17 09-19-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Since when do they show reverse angles of every photo at Belmont?

Look closely.

I see a dead heat...

the_fat_man · #18 09-19-2009, 01:52 PM

Well, this is when the STEWARDS need to make an appearance and FINE him. Javier INTENTIONALLY steers his horse in to, as you stated, put Garcia over the rail. This goes beyond race riding.

If they allow Castellano to herd at will, they really shouldn't be taking OTHER jocks down for not keeping straight paths.

As for Castellano, he got BENT OVER today.

ateamstupid · #19 09-19-2009, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I see a dead heat...

No you don't. Look at the snippet of blue between Quiet Meadow's nose and the line. You don't see that in front of Rutherienne's nose.

pointman · #20 09-19-2009, 02:34 PM

RHT, you have to be kidding, she clearly won the photo though by the closest of margins and probably the most favorable point of the bob for her, but she won the race. No dead heat, there was a tiny bit of space between Ruth and Quiet Meadow.

TFM, I have to agree with you on this one, Javier should get days, he clearly tried to cut Garcia off and that is nothing but dangerous riding.