5/15: Pimlico (Black-Eyed Susan Day)

[Kasept]

Strong run of multi-race playing that started with Churchill P6 conso Wednesday after Derby, reached $3,848.00 in returns on $600.00 invested via bonus mutuel of $1,490 on Wednesday's Belmont P4. The sequence:

5/6 (CD):
$48 P4: $0
$216 P6: $505.00

5/7 (BEL):
$72 P4: $1,040.50

5/9 (BEL/HOL):
$72: $0
$72: $811.90

5/13 (BEL):
$72: $1,490.50

What has been particularly notable over this week of play is that ticket structure has overcome mediocre handicapping. I haven't been able to put together many in-race exotics (trifectas; supers) during this stretch, which indicates to me that I'm not 'seeing' the individual races particularly well. But inclusion of the 'right' price horse(s) has been key in any of these over-sized payouts, as well as identifying beatable favorites and spreading appropriately in those races. Indeed as to spreading, use of the 'all' button in that quirky featured Churchill marathon on the Derby Carryover Card, (which pushes the play from $216 to $432), hits the $30,000+ sequence.

The point is that the relative 'cheapness' of playing multi-race wagers continues to prove out as the best way to maximize your horseplaying returns. For those that say you can't 'win' at the racetrack, a burst of success like this, similar to chaotic number theory in casino gaming, covers 40 unsuccessful $72 P4 plays... and that of course precludes that you won't hit any of those 40 efforts. No one wants to go on an 0 for 40 run, but it helps your play knowing you're still 'ahead' the whole time you're in a funk.

That the pendulum will swing your way and that you can get it all back to forge your way ahead, is one of the best ways to approach your wagering. It gives you an impervious indomitability in your own opinion that seperates you from the players that are tentative in their approach and unsure of themselves. I can't keep winning large pots at the rate I have over the past week, but knowing that this kind of return is out there in spots, provides the confidence to shrug off bad play and unlucky stretches.

Preakness Weekend starts today with a nice Black-Eyed Susan Day Card.


HI HO, PIMLICO!


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MD-bred S/Stake, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4)

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #7 Four Karats 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Eye 5-2 WON
Super Add: #6 Rinella Storm 8-1 5th


5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

Best Value: #1 Magamoo 8-1 3rd
Most Likely: #2 Pissaro 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Bette to Win 2-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Hasta La Pasta 8-1 9th


6th: Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3)

Most Likely: #4 Smart and Fancy 2-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Ahvee's Destiny 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Sheets 9-2 5th
Super Add: #10 Kosmo's Buddy 15-1 7th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #2 Eyes of Eire 3-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Perpetuity 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Streetscape 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Bright Gem 5-2 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

Scratch of Maria's Golden Rose from 4th badly undermines the play here..

4: 5-6-7
5: 1-2-9
6: 3-4
7: 1-2-3-6

3x3x2x4 = $72

$2 Pick 4 (1,5/9/2,4,6,12,13/6) Paid $32.50


8th: Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P3)

Brutally tough group and happily NOT part of either P4...

Best Value: #2 True to Tradition 9-2 4th
Most Likely: #12 Mr. Nighlinger 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Hero's Reward 5-2 5th
Super Add: #9 Crimson Sun 20-1 8th


9th: Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P4)

Most Likely: #5 All Giving 1-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Fancy Diamond 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 What Time It Is 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Mysterious Bandit 8-1 5th


10th: OC/M3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3)

Most Likely: #5 Fareena 6-5 5th
Best Value: #4 Ziggly 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Julia Tuttle 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Avie's Tale 8-1 WON


11th: Miss Preakness (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #5 Gatorette 7-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Heart Ashley 8-5 WON
Super Add: #7 Mani Bhavan 5-2 5th


12th: Black-Eyed Susan (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 9f (Preakness Double, Super High Five)

Most Likely: #8 Don't Forget Gil 7-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Bon Jovi Girl 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Casanova Move 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Payton d'Oro 9-2 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 5
10: 1-2-3-4-5-9
11: 2-5-7
12: 2-5-7-8

1x6x3x4 = $72

$2 Pick 4 (2,5/3/1,2,3,8/2) Paid $86.60


13th: Hilltop, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Blind Date 7-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Saar Treaty 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Rena 7-2 2nd
High 5 Play: #1e Jenkins entry 10-1 4th/7th


Good luck!
Steve