Derby Future Wager -- Pool III

[Kasept]

2009 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3

Thurs.-Sat., April 2-5

1 Charitable Man* 30-1
2 Chocolate Candy 30-1
3 Desert Party 30-1
4 Dunkirk 8-1
5 Flying Private* 50-1
6 Friesan Fire 8-1
7 Giant Oak 30-1
8 Hold Me Back* 30-1
9 I Want Revenge 8-1
10 Imperial Council 20-1
11 Mafaaz* 50-1
12 Musket Man* 30-1
13 Mr. Hot Stuff* 30-1
14 Old Fashioned 10-1
15 Papa Clem 30-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile 10-1
17 Quality Road 6-1
18 Regal Ransom* 30-1
19 Take the Points 30-1
20 Terrain* 50-1
21 The Pamplemousse 10-1
22 Theregoesjojo 20-1
23 Win Willy* 20-1
24 Mutuel Field (“All Others”) 10-1

*New wagering interest in Pool 3

Morning line odds by Mike Battaglia

[PeteMugg]

They were gonna put Proceed Bee on here ... but it would be Monday before Battaglia would spit out his morning line.

[Dunbar]

Interestingly (to me, at least), TheGreek has put up a line based (again) on the Pool 2 horses. Here it is:

2201 Bears Rocket
2202 Beethoven
2203 Big Drama
2204 Chocolate Candy +2250
2205 Desert Party +2250
2206 Dunkirk +1415
2207 Flying Pegasus +8550
2208 Friesan Fire +1025
2209 General Quarters +10250
2210 Giant Oak +3250
2211 Hello Broadway +7250
2212 I Want Revenge +1015
2213 Imperial Council +2550
2214 Old Fashioned +1415
2215 Papa Clem +4550
2216 Patena +5250
2217 Pioneer of the Nile +1415
2218 Quality Road +705
2219 Silver City
2220 Take the Points +8050
2221 The Pamplemousse +1525
2222 Theregoesjojo
2223 West Side Bernie +4550
2224 Any Other Horse +175

A blank means they are not offering odds. Note that the "All Other Horses" is down to 1.75-1. Makes Pool 2's 4.9-1 look good. The "takeout" on this line is 15.7%, but doesn't include the remote possibility that one of the horses like Big Drama or Theregoesjojo could actually run and win.

There are odds at TheGreek for some of the new Pool 3 horses, too:

2231 Regal Ransom +2850
2232 Terrain +3550
2233 Hold Me Back +4050
2234 Musket Man +8050
2235 Win Willy +4550
2236 Mafaaz +4050
2237 Stardom Bound +4550
2238 Square Eddie +3550

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

The only change from yesterday in the odds at TheGreek that I posted above is that Quality Road has dropped from 7.05-1 to 5.25-1. (increasing the overall vig from 15.8% to 18.3%.)

CRIS/Bookmaker still has 7-1 on Quality Road.

At KentuckyDerby.com it's pretty hard to tell that there is exacta wagering in Pool 3. If you click on "Current Odds" for Pool 3, it only shows you win odds, with not even a mention of exacta odds.

--Dunbar

PS--At 5Dimes there are no Kentucky Derby futures up, but at least you can bet on how many hotdogs will be eaten at Nathan's Coney Island Contest on July 4. It's televised, too.

Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, New York - July 4, 2009 - ESPN

Chestnut or Kobayashi must participate & contest duration must be 10 minutes for action

Nathan's winner eats over 62½ hot dogs -120
Nathan's winner eats under 62½ hot dogs -120

I wonder who's bigger? Chestnut or Spanish Chestnut?

[tjfla]

Musket Man looks good at 30-1 especially if he runs big in Illinois!!!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Musket Man looks good at 30-1 especially if he runs big in Illinois!!!!

Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Musket Man looks good at 30-1 especially if he runs big in Illinois!!!!

he's now 99/1

derek ryan is a good trainer , if he does win Ill why not take a shot on the 1st sat in may

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.

Couldn't you have written 0.001% chance, just to keep me happy? ;>)

--Dunbar

[NTamm1215]

Musket Man will get 10 furlongs.....















































It might just take 2:10

NT

[TheSpyder]

If he gets in I'm taking a stab with Terrain. Put a few bob on him!

[tbonds]

Could I be the lone one to think JoJo should be a short price?
Help me on this one.
TB

[DerbyCat]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

If he gets in I'm taking a stab with Terrain. Put a few bob on him!

i kinda like him, too... I'll be doing a Imperial Council / Terrain / Theregoesjojo exacta box this weekend along with win bets on each of these (unless Imperial Council wins and drops below 10-1).

Good luck Spyder!!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by DerbyCat

i kinda like him, too... I'll be doing a Imperial Council / Terrain / Theregoesjojo exacta box this weekend along with win bets on each of these (unless Imperial Council wins and drops below 10-1).

Doesn't Theregoesjojo have graded earnings problems?

--Dunbar

[tbonds]

jojo does look like he is on out the outside looking in.
I think he needs one more good race for the earnings.
Whats next for him before the Derby?
He will make a difference if he gets in.

[tjfla]

Hey at 30-1 ill take a chance on him goin mile and a quarter

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by philcski

Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.

maybe be so , but all he does is win

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by gales0678

maybe be so , but all he does is win

I'm guessing even philcski would put down $1 if he could get 1000-1 on Musket Man.

I'd settle for 50-1, because I think Musket Man has a chance far above 0% to win. I wish I had some of the 80-1 that was available offshore before yesterday's race.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Are Regal Ransom and Desert Party both still being pointed to the Derby?


--Dunbar

[HaloWishingwell]

Having already bet CHOCOLATE CANDY to win in the first two pools I used this pool to wheel and backwheel with the other favorites and some longshots in the exacta future. Considering his seven week layoff, slow pace and wide run I was quite happy with his race yesterday.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.

He wasn't going to get 8.5f or 9f either... Horses that run 9f competitively and finish in :37.0 and :12.2 will add a 10th furlong just fine. He's hardly a likely Derby winner, but those that have dismissed him non-stop should probably find someone else to belittle at this point.