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#2
03-26-2009, 08:49 AM
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I've never understood why horses are downgraded for being good enough and tractable enough to get good trips every race. I'd think that's a plus and not the negative that so many people seem to think it is. People always want to look for the horses that have bad trips and then salivate at the chance to bet them the next time, with the thinking that a good trip will earn them a win. Giant Oak in this year's Louisiana Derby is a prime example of that. What seems to happen more often though is the horses that lack the early speed and quickness to get themselves in good positions just end up with yet another bad trip while the horses with good tactical speed are able to be put in good position time after time and allowed to show their best stuff.......and handicappers downgrade their efforts because it was accomplished with an easy trip. If it happens one time, I can see you wanting to see it again. When it happens two and three and four times, it's not luck.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine 
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#3
03-26-2009, 09:01 AM
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#4
03-26-2009, 09:04 AM
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It's all about price, KG, and horse's who get perfect trips AND are short prices are poor bets.
Believe it or not, some of us bet on these races, and that's the perspective we use when looking at races. Chasing perfect trip winners, at low odds, is a way to lose. Assuming horses that have gotten perfect trips in the past will get them in the future is another easy route to Brokesville.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#5
03-26-2009, 09:11 AM
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Now then, if you want to talk about betting prices in relation to actual chances of winning, that's a different story. Obviously, the same horse that you may like the most for the win will often be a different horse than the one you will bet. I know I'm in my first month of following this sport and all and don't bet a dime but I think I kinda learned that. I wasn't, however, referring to the betting aspect of it. Also, on the flip side of your last sentence, assuming horses that have gotten bad trips in the past will get better ones in the future is a more direct route to Brokesville.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#6
03-26-2009, 09:22 AM
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NT
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#7
03-26-2009, 09:42 AM
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Pioneer has been well spotted, i believe that ends very shortly.
the Mousse will "cream" him and I would like to believe the Mousse is real but ???
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#8
03-26-2009, 09:33 AM
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Can you tell the difference between a Giant Oak, Cosmonaut type of horse (an overrated type that finds trouble and will be overbet for a few races) or a true troubled trip like Pay In Kind ? Can you be honest with yourself when you aren't sure?
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#9
03-26-2009, 09:41 AM
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The nuances of trip handicapping can be easily missed. For example, and Andy may disagree, I think there is a horse in the feature today at Aqu who absolutely stands out based on his trip last time. It didn't have anything to do with him getting stopped or into trouble, but it had to do with race flow/dynamics.
That is where it is often quite safe to assume that a horse coming off a less than stellar trip will get a better one in his/her next start. NT
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#10
03-26-2009, 04:17 PM
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I haven't glanced at his PP's lately, maybe I forgot some trouble lines.
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#11
03-26-2009, 03:49 PM
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 but yea your premise evades most people who wager.
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#12
03-26-2009, 09:06 AM
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The only horse I'd disagree with is Friesan Fire.
He's as solid as can be. Dunkirk could still be anything. POTN has done "NOTHING" so far to warrent derby consideration.
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#13
03-26-2009, 10:05 AM
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Sweet.......you are giving out Pioneer of the Nile over Friesan Fire in the stupidfecta. I think the future betting opens today. Time to get the hell down to the OTB and bet out.
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#14
03-26-2009, 10:38 AM
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#15
03-26-2009, 11:16 AM
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#16
03-26-2009, 11:38 AM
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The horse I liked (B Z Warrior) who finished 3rd, not last, was 5-2 ml and went off 1.6 -1 (post time favorite) AND runs back in the Swale. http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...55&postcount=2 guess there were a lot of "stupidfectas"  i was a good sport but this is like the 3rd time you bring it up. by the way: you still owe me compliments for the last two Kentucky Derbys, and the Breeders Cup Classic invaders thread. Also, expect you to kiss my ass after this year's derby. Also, "The jerk store called and they're running out of you!!!"
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