Fairgrounds Friday 11-21

[thunderdan09]

I like the Early Pick 4 today and the first five races in general. Please help support my blog and attempt to become the on track announcer and handicapping analyst at Running Aces Harness Park in Minnesota @ http://runningacesharness.blogspot.com

The early Pick 4 is very tough and I can't get a real grasp on any singles, so I am going to try to dwindle down my $0.50 Pick 4 ticket to a playable level. The ticket I really would like to play is $240, but I don't think there is value in playing Pick 4 tickets that spendy, especially at this track.

Race 1: I am going to use four horses in this race because we want to start the day off with a winner and we can't leave the logical ones out. The favorite #8 - Stormy Date (Meche/Calhoun) has a good chance to get the top prize, but I can not single him. He is coming off two consecutive 2nd place efforts and moves down slightly in class. The horse has never ran over the Fairgrounds course and that is just another reason to go deeper. The other most likely candidates are #3 and #7 who offer value over the favorite. #3 - Launched Missile (Valenzuela/Flint) is coming in from Churchill where he ran two weeks ago and showed absolutely nothing, but his back class is superior to the rest of these. It was the 2nd race off his 3rd race of '08 and 2nd off a short layoff so I expect improvement. #7 - Hargill (Meche,D./Asmussen) must be used because Asmussen is running at a 33% clip bringing horses back in less than a week. This horse ran 1st and moves up a claiming notch to a little tougher level. The longshot play lies with #6 - Rallywithclass (Clark/Arceneaux) who hasn't raced since August and showed nothing since March, but if this horse can show anything it did at Fairgrounds January '08 through March '08 this horse could win with ease.



Race 2: Another very deep race where I am going to try to get by with just two horses. #7 - tapitagain (Theriot/Amoss) is going to go off around even money, and is getting his second start against a softer field today. The drop in class and a 21% clip for Amoss with 2nd timers definitely deserves respect. You can single him if you want a cheaper ticket. #1 - Tide Rising (Graham/Stidham) offers the most value in the race. If you throw out his last effort, he tried MSW company in his first start and ran a 51 Beyer speed figure. Not bad for this field and at 8-1 morning line it entices me.

$0.50 Pick 4

2: 1,7
3: 3,4,5
4: 2,6,7,8
5: 1,3,9

$36 Ticket

Race 3: A wide open MSW affair that goes a mile. Some of these horses have had multiple chances and some of them have had none which always makes for an interesting race. #3 - Elle Ray Dew (Meche,L./Hawley) us going to be the favorite in the race because of the speed he showed in his last affair and he shortens up a sixteenth where he would have almost been the winner. #4 - Overlayed (Torres/Tate) is very intriguing coming off a 16 month layoff for his first start in 2008. The horse was hammered at the windows with Talamo aboard in '07 struggled throughout the rest of the season and was layed off. Could he be ready for a big comeback? Maybe, and he could make the Pick 4 willpays go through the roof. Only use if you single #7 in the 2nd race. #5 - True Prophet (Hernandez Jr./Desormeaux) is coming from OPEN MSW company vs STATE BRED which most of the rest of these have tried. That is a positive sign and the horse didn't run all that bad. #8 and #11 are upset plays and depending on how spendy you want to go use those if you can.

Race 4: I like some prices in this race. #6 - Irish Class (Hernandez Jr./Goss) is going to be a bomber, but with three months off and a win over the course you can't ignore this mare. The horse has won at this level at high odds and really seems to like this particular track. An older horse, but one with guts. #7 - Stormy Rain (Torres/Moquett) has had only 14 starts, but has five in the money finishes and they came against decent company. This is a drop in class and she didn't run all that bad her first time over the poly at Keeneland. If you toss the first on the poly than this horse has been right near the money in her previous four starts. #2 - Time for Etbauer (Theriot/Autrey) is going to be the favorite and you must use this horse. Especially because Theriot could have stayed on #7 and went to this horse instead. I am not big into jockey/trainer alliances so I don't know if the Theriot had to or whether he had a choice. Another outsider with a shot at a price and depending how spendy you want to get is #8 - Consensual.

Race 5: Another maiden race with some real donkeys. #1 - Honour Mae (Meche,D./Asmussen) will be the favorite and is the most likely contender in the field. This could be a single if you want to get risky in the last leg, but you have to count on improvement off the effort at Lousiana in October. #3 - Bella Runner (Perrodin/Mouton) is 0 for 5 but has shown glimpses that she can run. #2 and #9 are the wildcards you can use both of them or neither of them. #2 is 0 for 6 and #9 has never raced. I am leaning towards #9 because the works are reasonable and the trainer is winning at a nice clip.

Good luck and hope this analysis helps a little bit on these tough races!