Optional Claiming race question

pweizer · #1 08-07-2008, 07:32 PM

Race 3 tomorrow at Saratoga is an OC 75,000n3x race. Of the six horses, only two are entered for a tag. One is Loose Leaf who hasn't run since November and just may not be that good. The other, however, is curious to me. That is Temporary Saint. This horse was claimed for 50k last October. Since that time, all he has done is run 5 times with 2 wins, one place, and one show. One of those wins was a grade 3 stake. Why would you risk this horse for 75K when there is no apparent benefit? There is no weight break in the conditions.

How do you interpret this move? Is this a big red flag?

Paul

GBBob · #2 08-07-2008, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

Race 3 tomorrow at Saratoga is an OC 75,000n3x race. Of the six horses, only two are entered for a tag. One is Loose Leaf who hasn't run since November and just may not be that good. The other, however, is curious to me. That is Temporary Saint. This horse was claimed for 50k last October. Since that time, all he has done is run 5 times with 2 wins, one place, and one show. One of those wins was a grade 3 stake. Why would you risk this horse for 75K when there is no apparent benefit? There is no weight break in the conditions.

How do you interpret this move? Is this a big red flag?

Paul

Well..at face value, a $25K profit on the claim, plus all that purse money equals a very nice profit in less than a year. I didn't look at the PPs so obviously that makes no sense if he/she is owned by a Sheik, but it would be a heck of a run for a "smaller" owner. But, that being said, I don't know if I would make that claim or not

Scav · #3 08-07-2008, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBBob

Well..at face value, a $25K profit on the claim, plus all that purse money equals a very nice profit in less than a year. I didn't look at the PPs so obviously that makes no sense if he/she is owned by a Sheik, but it would be a heck of a run for a "smaller" owner. But, that being said, I don't know if I would make that claim or not

Does the trainer have two horses within the race? If he does, he probably wanted the race to go so he just entered two to make sure they used the race

ateamstupid · #4 08-07-2008, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

Race 3 tomorrow at Saratoga is an OC 75,000n3x race. Of the six horses, only two are entered for a tag. One is Loose Leaf who hasn't run since November and just may not be that good. The other, however, is curious to me. That is Temporary Saint. This horse was claimed for 50k last October. Since that time, all he has done is run 5 times with 2 wins, one place, and one show. One of those wins was a grade 3 stake. Why would you risk this horse for 75K when there is no apparent benefit? There is no weight break in the conditions.

How do you interpret this move? Is this a big red flag?

Paul

Not to me. He's out of allowance conditions, so it's either this or stakes, and maybe they feel like he's not a true stake horse. Plus, it's not like they're giving him away for peanuts.

On another note, I'm interested to see how Fearless Vision runs.

ateamstupid · #5 08-07-2008, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Does the trainer have two horses within the race? If he does, he probably wanted the race to go so he just entered two to make sure they used the race

No, this is Levine's only horse in the race. And the owner is Maggi Moss.

pweizer · #6 08-07-2008, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not to me. He's out of allowance conditions, so it's either this or stakes, and maybe they feel like he's not a true stake horse. Plus, it's not like they're giving him away for peanuts.

On another note, I'm interested to see how Fearless Vision runs.

You may well be correct. However, given the state of the handicap division for older horses, he could be a good earner for a long time. I really like him in the race but the tag scares me.

Paul

GBBob · #7 08-07-2008, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No, this is Levine's only horse in the race. And the owner is Maggi Moss.

Deleting previous post.

ddthetide · #8 08-07-2008, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No, this is Levine's only horse in the race. And the owner is Maggi Moss.

Moss told steve about this horse on the radio show some months ago and she was Very high on him.

Rudeboyelvis · #9 08-07-2008, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not to me. He's out of allowance conditions, so it's either this or stakes, and maybe they feel like he's not a true stake horse. Plus, it's not like they're giving him away for peanuts.

On another note, I'm interested to see how Fearless Vision runs.

Agree 100%. Out of conditions and not to mention that he ran a career top to get the G3 and is looking to be on the backside of that form, regressing to the "pre Leavine" era. I seriously doubt anyone takes him for the tag.

Linny · #10 08-07-2008, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

Race 3 tomorrow at Saratoga is an OC 75,000n3x race. Of the six horses, only two are entered for a tag. One is Loose Leaf who hasn't run since November and just may not be that good. The other, however, is curious to me. That is Temporary Saint. This horse was claimed for 50k last October. Since that time, all he has done is run 5 times with 2 wins, one place, and one show. One of those wins was a grade 3 stake. Why would you risk this horse for 75K when there is no apparent benefit? There is no weight break in the conditions.

How do you interpret this move? Is this a big red flag?

Paul

It's the only way he's eligible for this spot. Probably got hustled into it so Pletcher's horses could "get a race."

SentToStud · #11 08-07-2008, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

Race 3 tomorrow at Saratoga is an OC 75,000n3x race. Of the six horses, only two are entered for a tag. One is Loose Leaf who hasn't run since November and just may not be that good. The other, however, is curious to me. That is Temporary Saint. This horse was claimed for 50k last October. Since that time, all he has done is run 5 times with 2 wins, one place, and one show. One of those wins was a grade 3 stake. Why would you risk this horse for 75K when there is no apparent benefit? There is no weight break in the conditions.

How do you interpret this move? Is this a big red flag?

Paul

I think it's a red flag. He ran great at Aqueduct winter-early spring. I guess the Pimlico race was ok but there wasn't much that finished behind him.

Also, he didn't finish well at all in his last race. He should have gone right by a horse like Encastic and didn't have much to offer when Wayzata Bay came alongside. He finished 3rd but was only a half length from 5th.

I don't like horses who don't run good the race after they run a mediocre race in the slop.