A Very Hard Game...... 4th at Bel

infield_line · #1 07-02-2008, 01:43 PM

I would ask anyone to provide any handicapping rationale to have seen the 2 ahead of time in the 4th at BEL.....

I/L

hockey2315 · #2 07-02-2008, 01:56 PM

I'm not betting today and this isn't redboarding - but that horse was far from impossible.

TheSpyder · #3 07-02-2008, 02:08 PM

Gotta agree with you as I loked at the race and saw three standouts, none of which were the 2.

Spyder

Quote:

Originally Posted by infield_line

I would ask anyone to provide any handicapping rationale to have seen the 2 ahead of time in the 4th at BEL.....

I/L

jcs11204 · #4 07-02-2008, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm not betting today and this isn't redboarding - but that horse was far from impossible.

far from impossible maybe, but i had him as the 6th most likely winner...

jcs11204 · #5 07-02-2008, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm not betting today and this isn't redboarding - but that horse was far from impossible.

you know what i change my mind, this horse does look impossible, weaver is 0-10, dam tell me one thing this horse had going for it ?

infield_line · #6 07-02-2008, 02:14 PM

about impossible, I was seeking just wanting to generate some dialog about an angle that could have raised the interest level.. Obviously, good jock. FWIW my pace program had the 2 and the top pick based on first start, but of course I disregarded as.....too improbable given pedigree of others.

Oh well, onward and upward...

I/L

hockey2315 · #7 07-02-2008, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

you know what i change my mind, this horse does look impossible, weaver is 0-10, dam tell me one thing this horse had going for it ?

her first race on turf wasn't bad at all - not too far off from the rest of these and at a distance too short for her. . . the slop race is a toss but probably gave her some conditioning. . . weaver does well sprint/route and the horse's ped suggested she'd want more ground. . . her dam side pedigree also suggests some class. . . i'm not saying I bet her or that she was obvious, BUT, to say that she was impossible (she only paid $30) is defeatist and won't serve you very well in the future. actually trying to understand how and why longshots win is a good way to help you find them in the future.

Gate Dancer · #8 07-02-2008, 02:28 PM

A few tidbits that may help give a little credibility.............

Belle Artiste (dam) was a pretty nice horse in her day, she compiled a 30-7-5-4 record in her life and bankrolled $325,000. She won the West Long Branch stakes at MTH. Pedigree says distance would not be a problem with Came Home as 'daddy' and Broad Brush as broadmare 'daddy'. Only start on grass was decent figure with a mild close. Definitely liked the 2-3-4 finishers better but not totally unreasonable.

Weak explanations I agree..............but it's something.

SentToStud · #9 07-02-2008, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by infield_line

I would ask anyone to provide any handicapping rationale to have seen the 2 ahead of time in the 4th at BEL.....

I/L

Her Gulf race was fine. She didn't run at all except the last part and got passed by nothing. If you can toss the slop race, there was no reason to think she'd not run decent. She certainly looked better at 14-1 than the 1 did at 7-1 or the 7 at 9-1 (layoff), and looked almost as good to move up to me as the 3 at 5/2 and just as likely to improve as the 6 at 2/1. Ped seemed ok and Weaver with 3 yo fillies is a bit of a plus.

I had her figured 3d/4th best behind the 8 and 3.

philcski · #10 07-02-2008, 03:36 PM

The winner of the 6th is a half to one of my horses. Another one, Dr DFC, runs tomorrow in the 7th for what it's worth.

infield_line · #11 07-02-2008, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

her first race on turf wasn't bad at all - not too far off from the rest of these and at a distance too short for her. . . the slop race is a toss but probably gave her some conditioning. . . weaver does well sprint/route and the horse's ped suggested she'd want more ground. . . her dam side pedigree also suggests some class. . . i'm not saying I bet her or that she was obvious, BUT, to say that she was impossible (she only paid $30) is defeatist and won't serve you very well in the future. actually trying to understand how and why longshots win is a good way to help you find them in the future.

given the other runners many of whom looked like they would love the grass

hockey2315 · #12 07-02-2008, 05:37 PM

So why did you start a thread about this?

infield_line · #13 07-02-2008, 06:42 PM

[quote=infield_line]I would ask anyone to provide any handicapping rationale to have seen the 2 ahead of time in the 4th at BEL.....

asking what might have tipped me that the horse was live ahead of time...

so young horses, little to go on.... you get beat.

sorry I wasted your time Hockey....

the_fat_man · #14 07-02-2008, 07:42 PM

This is yet another way to get beat in the game: the perfect storm in terms of the trip. So, instead of asking whether the horse figured, you might want to approach it in terms of the trip it got.

1) sat a perfect inside trip behind a lone speed

2) incredibly PATIENT ride by a typically impatient jock --- the is the KEY--- Castellano doesn't ask this horse until the last possible second --- he goes after the speed but in hand, never asking the horse to move prematurely. what this does is effectively take the closers out of the race, as there is a minimum of moves --- the closers are thus left to do all the work; as such, Kapanga was best.

3) Kapanga not only lacks room and has to steady and go around horses early stretch, she also has to wait behind horses mid to late turn. These couple of seconds lost translate into a 2nd rather than a win.

In other words, take a field of horses, gave 60% or so (maybe higher) a perfect trip, and that horse can win.

And you thought the game involved skill? It does; it's jsut not about picking the best horse.

blackthroatedwind · #15 07-02-2008, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is yet another way to get beat in the game: the perfect storm in terms of the trip. So, instead of asking whether the horse figured, you might want to approach it in terms of the trip it got.

1) sat a perfect inside trip behind a lone speed

2) incredibly PATIENT ride by a typically impatient jock --- the is the KEY--- Castellano doesn't ask this horse until the last possible second --- he goes after the speed but in hand, never asking the horse to move prematurely. what this does is effectively take the closers out of the race, as there is a minimum of moves --- the closers are thus left to do all the work; as such, Kapanga was best.

3) Kapanga not only lacks room and has to steady and go around horses early stretch, she also has to wait behind horses mid to late turn. These couple of seconds lost translate into a 2nd rather than a win.

In other words, take a field of horses, gave 60% or so (maybe higher) a perfect trip, and that horse can win.

And you thought the game involved skill? It does; it's jsut not about picking the best horse.

Boy do I disagree with this.

the_fat_man · #16 07-02-2008, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Boy do I disagree with this.

Which part exactly?

pick4 · #17 07-02-2008, 08:09 PM

2) incredibly PATIENT ride by a typically impatient jock --- the is the KEY--- Castellano doesn't ask this horse until the last possible second --- he goes after the speed but in hand, never asking the horse to move prematurely. what this does is effectively take the closers out of the race, as there is a minimum of moves --- the closers are thus left to do all the work; as such, Kapanga was best.

Castellano had no choice but to sit the trip. The lone speed was very cheap speed, and Belle's Home has first run on the lead.

blackthroatedwind · #18 07-02-2008, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Which part exactly?

As much as I respect your opinion, I saw the race completely differently. To me, the winner was the best horse, and ran the best race ( much as I would have preferred to see the place horse win ). The second finisher is a bit of a plodder. She hasn't broken particularly well, and has been sluggish early, in both of her races. She saved ground and had to alter course in the stretch which I just don't think means much. IMO the winner did more work than her early and beat her reasonably comfortably.

Now, considering the trainers, perhaps the second finisher will improve down the road, and the winner will go nowhere, but based on today's race I prefer the winner. I also thought she took sneaky money ( which is irrelevent....just thought I would mention it ).

pick4 · #19 07-02-2008, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As much as I respect your opinion, I saw the race completely differently. To me, the winner was the best horse, and ran the best race ( much as I would have preferred to see the place horse win ). The second finisher is a bit of a plodder. She hasn't broken particularly well, and has been sluggish early, in both of her races. She saved ground and had to alter course in the stretch which I just don't think means much. IMO the winner did more work than her early and beat her reasonably comfortably.

Now, considering the trainers, perhaps the second finisher will improve down the road, and the winner will go nowhere, but based on today's race I prefer the winner. I also thought she took sneaky money ( which is irrelevent....just thought I would mention it ).

Kapanga had to tap on the brakes a few times. If she had a clean trip she wins. But her running style is a make one huge run and unless she gets lucky, she's bound to run into a bit of traffic problems. If she gets up and wins I hit the early pick four but it wasn't meant to be.

I think you guys are over analyzing the winners trip. She sat the garden trip, and had enough in reserve to hold off the hard charging Kapanga.

the_fat_man · #20 07-02-2008, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pick4

I think you guys are over analyzing the winners trip. She sat the garden trip, and had enough in reserve to hold off the hard charging Kapanga.

If you have time, you might want to watch the race again, only this time focus exclusively on Castellano. Especially, on the turn. Notice how long it takes for him to go by a horse that he can put away just about at any point on the turn. He doesn't take the lead UNTIL AFTER they enter the stretch, sitting chilly all that time. (This is the way to ride.) By doing so, he holds the race together. He gives nothing else a chance to run, neither the chasers nor the closers, as he has the reserve necessary to finish. She didn't only get a garden trip because she happened to be inside chasing; she got a perfect trip because she was asked correctly.