SA to intro 'Super Hi-5'

Kasept · #1 11-30-2007, 05:29 PM

Ron Charles and Hammerle announcing on 'ATR' new bet for Winter Meet..

"Super Hi-5" on last race daily...

$1 minimum.. Top 5 finishers..

Carryovers anticipated..

philcski · #2 11-30-2007, 06:01 PM

Sweet! Another way for me to lose my money chasing an impossible jackpot.

Only 95,040 combinations in a 12 horse field.

rgustafson · #3 11-30-2007, 07:20 PM

Isn't this the same approach that Shick and Gilette have taken with razor blades,

Cannon Shell · #4 11-30-2007, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rgustafson

Isn't this the same approach that Shick and Gilette have taken with razor blades,

I use a 9 blade Super Mach 3 squared

letswastemoney · #5 11-30-2007, 08:56 PM

$1 minimum on a 5 ecta???!?!?! Yet the super is only a dime??? lololol

Scav · #6 11-30-2007, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

$1 minimum on a 5 ecta???!?!?! Yet the super is only a dime??? lololol

Yeah, that is pretty rough if you ask me. If they did it for a dime I could see some action on that but $1, that is nuts, 5 horse box will cost $120, 6 horse box will cost $720.

I like the Hammer, but he is out of his mind with this idea. Add a midrange Pk4 or something if you have to add an exotic

I got a 1 meet shelf life on this exotics, tops

hi_im_god · #7 11-30-2007, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Ron Charles and Hammerle announcing on 'ATR' new bet for Winter Meet..

"Super Hi-5" on last race daily...

$1 minimum.. Top 5 finishers..

Carryovers anticipated..

they can add this bet but getting the final odds on the board before the 1/2 mile time is impossible?

SniperSB23 · #8 12-01-2007, 01:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, that is pretty rough if you ask me. If they did it for a dime I could see some action on that but $1, that is nuts, 5 horse box will cost $120, 6 horse box will cost $720.

I like the Hammer, but he is out of his mind with this idea. Add a midrange Pk4 or something if you have to add an exotic

I got a 1 meet shelf life on this exotics, tops

If it is a carryover situation it could be very different though. As much as I'd like to be able to take part in a bet like this I think they would be better off making it $2 minimum and driving bettors like me out of the market and creating more carryover situations (which would draw bettors like me back into the market), At $1 minimum people like me won't play and they won't get enough carryovers to force us to play.

Port Conway Lane · #9 12-01-2007, 02:47 AM

Recently I saw a discussion on another board about a ten cent pick-6 and there was a suggestion to separate the pool into two segments.
What if that idea was applied here. A bettor would have the option of playing a .10 or $1 wager on the race.All monies wagered would be divided 90% to anyone holding a $1 ticket and 10% to the .10 winners. If no one holds a $1 ticket the money carries over to the next day.
Hollywood's superfecta pools are around $175,000 and I would guess they would be cut down 25% by the additional wager. Assuming 50k was in the first day's pool roughly $4,000 would pay out to the .10 winners and $36,000 for a $1.
Any thoughts?

Kasept · #10 12-01-2007, 05:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

$1 minimum on a 5 ecta???!?!?! Yet the super is only a dime??? lololol

That's the reason the wager has been developed. The .10 super is syphoning the payouts for serious super players and this $1 bet is in response to their complaints/suggestions. As Hammerle once said on the show when asked about $1 or .50 P6's, if you lower the cost, the ability to hit soars and the reward drops.

If you listen to the show from last night, Charles and Hammer explained that they are guessing the pool in this could result in $50,000-$75,000 one day carryovers. And since Hammer writes the cards, you can be sure the nightcaps are going to be deep and competitive. Watch what happens when this goes unhit for 2 days and there's suddenly a $1,000,000 in a single race pool.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, that is pretty rough if you ask me. If they did it for a dime I could see some action on that but $1, that is nuts, 5 horse box will cost $120, 6 horse box will cost $720.

I like the Hammer, but he is out of his mind with this idea. Add a midrange Pk4 or something if you have to add an exotic

I got a 1 meet shelf life on this exotics, tops

It wasn't Rick's idea. It came out in response to horseplayer focus groups that Santa Anita regularly conducts. And the depth of tickets is exactly what drives the bet...

At first blush, I'd imagine people would approach this with an exacta over trifecta mentality: a variation of Steve Crist's "double-key part wheel" approach to Superfectas that treats it as a win bet in concert with a trifecta. 2x1x4x3x2 would be a $48 ticket... (Keying is obviously another option which 'reduces' the play to a win bet in concert with a superfecta.)

The attraction of this play is going to be for the pool scoop shooters. Think of it as a single race P6... It will be a success.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

they can add this bet but getting the final odds on the board before the 1/2 mile time is impossible?

There was a piece in Thoroughbred Times recently that explains the late odds changes (yet again). I'll try to find it. It has to do with the crush of wagering that comes in the last couple of ticks. Something like 70% of pools arrives in the final 3 minutes of wagering which is re-tabulated every 45 seconds. That's why you get in-race odds changes after the bells.

docicu3 · #11 12-01-2007, 05:37 AM

As long as the last race isn't the usual 2 yr old MSW with half the field first timers it could be 'capable but if it ends up a 16 horse field of vestile virgins going 5.5F on the water holding astroturf they have now you might as well break it down as a single slot pull......love the Hammer on Friday and might have to name a charity after the man if he simply has the BC allow colored saddle cloths or the trakus device next fall but this wager seems far more about blind luck than "cappin if the last race runs the groups we've seen in the recent past......

2Hot4TV · #12 12-01-2007, 07:34 AM

It's all about another way to suck 20% out of the betters pocket and we all have the right to pick the wagers we want to make. I will pass on this one along with the place pick 9.

A seprate pool for a .10 cent wager would be intresting to see the pool total, but the idea really sucks.

Bobby Fischer · #13 12-01-2007, 08:19 AM

These wagers seldom make it to the OTBs and Internet Wagering programs.

Very funny(or not) the time I focused a day on the grandSlam wager, walked into the NY OTB and the teller thought I wanted baseball on one of the TVs

This will definitely favor those willing to invest a lot. Without thinking too hard on this , I would guess a good strategy would be similar to a superfecta with more reliance on using 2 horse keys. That is 2 horses that you expect to both hit the top 5, and then shifting them around in different slots on your multiple wagers.

My guess would be that initially there will be some huge payoffs and carryovers, and then the sharks will circle in and start taking them down in greater numbers.
Will post some selections if I get a chance.

Kasept · #14 12-01-2007, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

There was a piece in Thoroughbred Times recently that explains the late odds changes (yet again). I'll try to find it. It has to do with the crush of wagering that comes in the last couple of ticks. Something like 70% of pools arrives in the final 3 minutes of wagering which is re-tabulated every 45 seconds. That's why you get in-race odds changes after the bells.

The issue is the 9/29/07 TTimes and focused on the efforts of the Wagering Transmission Protocol working group as part of the TRA's meeting at the American Royal (of all places) in Kansas City in September.

Using Del Mar '07 as the example, the TRPB found the following:

Handle % accrued/MTP:

3 MTP: 49.4%
2 MTP: 60.7%
1 MTP: 72.6%
0 MTP: 84.6%
OFF: 95.3%
10-sec. force: 99.5% (Forced odds cycling 10 seconds after gates open)

"Most TRA tracks have implemented forced odds cycling 10 sec. after wagering closes. But win odds will STILL change since about 7% of handle is generated within the final seconds before the bell. In some cases 50% of the pool comes in the final 120 seconds but odds are updated every 45 seconds. More frequent updates during the final minutes would make late odds changes look less nefarious."

J. Curtis Linnell, Director of Wagering Analysis for the TRPB

Kasept · #15 12-01-2007, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

These wagers seldom make it to the OTBs and Internet Wagering programs.

Again, I invite people to listen to the broadcast as this was covered... The bet has been introduced to the ADW community, likely as part of the work of Richard Shapiro as part of California's pro-active efforts in this arena. Santa Anita expects the wager to be picked up widely.

NEW WAGERING INNOVATIONS are the principle method of handle growth in racing...

mik9872 · #16 12-01-2007, 09:37 AM

Obviously this bet was developed to encourage carryovers. Although it is of no interest to me, I am happy to see anything new in the betting format. No one is holding a gun to to your head making you bet this. I believe all bet types should be offered on every race. The bettor can then determine where he wants to place his dollars.

Rudeboyelvis · #17 12-01-2007, 09:55 AM

I think it's ingenious....I'm not going to play it simply because I've played key/ part wheel tris that have it gone sometimes 6-7 horses deep for show - fairly successfully - and I don't think I've ever picked all 5 horses in a tri play if you were to extrapolate the show play out from 3 to 5 places...In addition to the enormous cost...I guess you'd have to have a strong key and a couple of opinions for second or nothing...easier to do in a tri that a super5...Granted I ususally only play these types of bets with large fields (10 +)...But for someone with a large bankroll looking for immediate gambling satisfaction - it's hard to beat...P6 type payouts in 2 minutes, not 3 hours

philcski · #18 12-02-2007, 10:10 PM

People, it's certainly better than the Over/Under "wager", no?

You'll get excited the first time there's a 250k carryover.

Scav · #19 12-02-2007, 10:23 PM

My only thing is that it is too much. Me personally, it will never get a dime of my money because I never figure out who is going to run third let alone 5th.

I can see how vertical players will take a shot at this, it is alot like 'their' P6. I can see why they are giving it a shot.

I just don't want to see dilution of pick three/four pools and exacta pools becuase people are taking a shot at this. California is the only area I DO GOOD IN.

Bigsmc · #20 12-03-2007, 02:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Me personally, it will never get a dime of my money because I never figure out who is going to run third let alone 5th.

I agree completely, but if it is a success, that is great.

Anything to drum up interest is fine by me.