The case for why Pyro is the most likely Derby winner right now

[The Indomitable DrugS]

War Pass and Pyro are the two superior horses with the superior figures.

For example, the 113 Beyer War Pass ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile represents the fastest figure in the history of that race.

The 105 Beyer Pyro ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile is outright the 3rd fastest BC Juvenile Beyer figure in the 17 year history that Beyer's have been published in the Daily Racing Form.

The only two horses to ever run a faster BC Juvie figure were War Pass (113, loose on lead over sloppy track) and Street Sense 108 (Dream trip/setup up the CD rail to win by 10 lengths)

So, that crowd who wanted to mock Pyro on the fact that he was "one nose away from a maiden" - they could have been countered with the fact that Pyro owns the outright fastest Beyer in BC Juvie history which was earned without the aid of any possible smoke and mirrors.

Now that their superority to this crop so far has been established - onto why Pyro is the better Derby projection....

Loose speed War Pass has won all three match-ups, but Pyro has gained steadily late on him each time. Making up 2.25 lengths through the final call of a six furlong allowance race. Making up 5.5 lengths through the final call of the Champagne. Making up 2.25 lengths through the final call of the record figure BC Juvie.

It would be one thing If War Pass dueled through quick fractions and Pyro sucked up late and closed the margin - but that didn't happen once in the three meetings. Pyro lost because he was outpaced each time, but he also stylishly finished the last furlong best of all each time.

Pyro has three clear-cut edges over War Pass to make him a superior Derby projection. Here they are....

* Uncontested leads don't come easy in 20 horse fields with everyone stretching out:

The Derby is typically fast paced - especially for mid-season 3-year-olds attempting a 10 furlong distance. For that reason, horses with deep closing running styles often outrun their odds. More importantly, War Pass was loose on an uncontested lead ranging from margins of 2-to-3 lengths after a half mile in each win over Pyro.

A horse with the repute War Pass has will not get loose like that in the Derby without going WAY too fast for the distance. In a rare year, they might give a 20/1 shot like War Emblem a pass on an uncontested lead, but that is very unlikely to happen.

Horses with Pyro's deep closing running style often outrun their odds in the Derby and end up looking better than they really are.

* Pedigree:

War Pass is by champion sprinter Cherokee Run. His dam Vue was a lightly raced stakes placed sprinter by Mr. Prospector. War Pass is a half sibling to Grade 1 winner Oath, who was perfect at age 2 and winless there after. He's also a half sibling to Grade 2 stakes place sprinter Vision of Beauty. She never attempted a route. Basically, War Pass is bred for sharp speed and sharp precocity.

Meanwhile, Pyro's grandsire won the Breeders Cup Classic and Belmont Stakes and his damsire won the Breeders Cup Classic as well. Pyro's dam is a half to a stakes winner who won 8-of-16 lifetime dirt routes and another stakes winner who was 12-5-3-3 in dirt routes.

* Training tactics:

Trainer Nick Zito has won a remarkable 5 of the last 10 runnings of the Champagne Stakes. War Pass worked 4 bullet workouts in the month of September prior to his razor sharp wire-to-wire Champagne score in early Oct.

Trainer Steve Asmussen hasn't allowed Pyro to do much in his works. Just a steady diet of slow breeze's.

[blackthroatedwind]

Not that you said it, in fact you intentionally avoided it, but War Pass was loose on the lead because he outran his speedy opposition with exceptionally fast fractions. His half in the BC was a full second faster than the lightning quick Indian Blessing. It's hardly surprising that Pyro was able to gain on him in the last quarter of those races....in fact it would have been embarrassing if he couldn't. None of his closes were particularly exceptional. In fact one could argue that he was the only one running after War Pass had done the dirty work of intimidating all the speed horses. I know you won't argue that War Pass was far more impressive in victory in those races than Pyro was in picking up the pieces for second money.

As for the rest of your Captain Obvious stuff about Pyro being more likely to get the distance. Gee thanks....we didn't know that War Pass isn't particularly bred to go a distance and faces the possibility of a difficult pace scenerio in the Derby. And, in case we weren't, you have already posted it about 37 times. Clearly the fact that War Pass has not shown an ability to rate may be his biggest concern ( along with the obvious distance questions ). One thing Smarty Jones had going for him at this time four years ago was that he had shown a stalking ability. Of course, it would be nice for War Pass if the sky opened up on the first Saturday in May just like they did for Smarty Jones.

And thanks for pointing out the different ways that Assmussen and Zito are bringing these horses along. Considering Assmussen's mantel full of KY Derby trophies, along with Zito's total lack of success in the race, it's a wonder Nick isn't trying to emulate Steve's style. Hopefully someone will straighten him out before it's too late. I just hope for Assmussen's sake his horses are running as well on Derby day as they seem to be in Fair Grounds right now. I'm sure you'll agree that there's no reason to even consider that possibility.

All in all, however, your usual fine work. If you weren't so damn handsome I probably wouldn't even have read it.

[Heels1989]

Haven't seen this previously posted. Mr. Beyer on War Pass.

Impressed with Pyro today, but not on his bandwagon quite yet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...020803619.html

[horseofcourse]

I think uncontested leads happen more often than you think. Wasn't Hard Spun even last year uncontested pretty much?? Lion Heart not too long ago?? You mentioned War Emblem. Spend a Buck, Bold Forbes, all come to mind as well. Yeah, it doesn't happen much but it certainly is not out of the question. Best BC Juvy Beyer for Pyro without aid of smoke and mirrors??

There's a long way to go yet before this Derby. I have yet to see War Pass this year, and he could stink for all we know. I saw zero today that told me Pyro could beat War Pass at 8.5 or even 9 furlongs however. Pyro could be the horse this year...but on February 9th and what I saw today...I'll reserve final judgment. AT this point I still prefer War Pass.

[blackthroatedwind]

One thing, however, that Pyro showed his doubters today was that in finishing second to War Pass he wasn't a suck-up phony. He showed that against lesser foes, even without a good set up ( in fact far from it ), he was dominant. His performance today was a compliment to War Pass, but moreso it showed that Pyro can run....he's just been hampered by facing a superior foe. The question that DrugS discusses, and the obvious question, is whether or not that superiority will extend to the classic races and their extra distances.

I have to say I was surprised by some of the comments I read about Pyro leading into this race. It was hard to understand, at least for me, when looking at the pps for today's race how he could realistically lose.

There are some horses running on the
funky stuff out west that I really want to
see on the dirt sometime.

I really want to see what the bad cat
can do on dirt. I think he might fit the bill.
But it is hard to tell because of the level
of competition and the surface.

The style is there and he can improve.

When is War Pass due back?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I think uncontested leads happen more often than you think. Wasn't Hard Spun even last year uncontested pretty much?? Lion Heart not too long ago?? You mentioned War Emblem. Spend a Buck, Bold Forbes, all come to mind as well. Yeah, it doesn't happen much but it certainly is not out of the question. Best BC Juvy Beyer for Pyro without aid of smoke and mirrors??

There's a long way to go yet before this Derby. I have yet to see War Pass this year, and he could stink for all we know. I saw zero today that told me Pyro could beat War Pass at 8.5 or even 9 furlongs however. Pyro could be the horse this year...but on February 9th and what I saw today...I'll reserve final judgment. AT this point I still prefer War Pass.

I don't have their PPs handy, but I don't think Lion Heart or Hard Spun ever ran as fast early and won routing as War Pass did in his last two starts.

Also, it seems that people are quicker to predict that War Pass will have trouble routing than they normally would be with a son of Cheroke Run. Really, is the bredding THAT terrible?

I'm starting to warm up to this whole War Pass idea.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

When is War Pass due back?

Allowance at GP later this month.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

When is War Pass due back?

February 23rd.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

When is War Pass due back?

Allowance race on Feb 23rd. It will be carded as the "Bridgejumper Stakes"

[horseofcourse]

IT's just so early. Last year, we knew about Street Sense...Curlin had yet to run a race...and Hard Spun we had questions...and after the Southwest later in the month we had way more. Two years ago Barbaro had yet to run on dirt and had Bernardini even run a race yet??

It's way too hard this year especially in California...even if El Gato Malo becomes a monster...his first race on dirt will be the Derby. We will know nothing. I have to think there's more than Pyro and War Pass out there. Something else is going to pop up big time other than those two between now and then.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by justindew

I don't have their PPs handy, but I don't think Lion Heart or Hard Spun ever ran as fast early and won routing as War Pass did in his last two starts.

Also, it seems that people are quicker to predict that War Pass will have trouble routing than they normally would be with a son of Cheroke Run. Really, is the bredding THAT terrible?

I'm starting to warm up to this whole War Pass idea.

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

I wasn't arguing with you.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by justindew

I wasn't arguing with you.

...sorry. I like to argue on these!!

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

February 23rd.

allowance, Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

allowance, Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby?

Allowance, Tampa Bay Derby, Wood.

What does Justin Dew
think of the Bad Cat,
Crown of Thorns, and
Court Vision?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by pgardn

What does Justin Dew
think of the Bad Cat,
Crown of Thorns, and
Court Vision?

Assuming my balls aren't being busted, which is a dangerous assumption here....

El Gato Malo- It seems like there is less talk about his potential distance limitations than there is about War Pass, even though this one is by El Corredor. Or maybe there is talk and I am just not hearing it. Plus there's the whole synthetic track thing. But he's done nothing wrong. It would not be a shock if he went into the KY Derby undefeated, where it came down to an issue of his ability to handle the surface and the distance. I like him.

Crown of Thorns- I'm not sure what he beat in the Lewis. I like others out West more than him. Probably #2 in his own barn anyway.

Court Vision- This is the kind of horse I am usually wrong about. He's looked awesome, but the speed numbers are not where some would want them to be. I would rate him among my Top 5 at this point, but I have this fear that BTW is on to something in his criticism.

[blackthroatedwind]

Crown of Thorns is definitely the best song Mother Love Bone ever recorded.