Tampa Pick 4/ Sat 12-22

GPK · #1 12-21-2007, 07:13 PM

Hard to make a case for building a big ticket (+$144) when LOOKINFORTHESECRET seems to be a solid single in the 9th.

Races 8-11

Small Ticket $48 = $238.80

2,6,7,10/7/2,3,5,7/4,6,9

Rudeboyelvis · #2 12-22-2007, 12:39 AM

Just got in from ANOTHER Xmas party

hehehheh

I'll go through the rest in the AM, but here is my take on the first 4 races with a soap box disclaimer:

I’m boycotting posting both the morning line and the DRF graded entries for that matter because I don’t have a clue what anyone is looking at – surely the results of the meet thus far bear that opinion out.

Not that I’m some great handicapper or something but they’ve been so far off the mark that It's crazy to post odds next to the picks. Not that my picks are great, but double digit m/l odds going off as the post time fav’s are becoming the way too common all of sudden (READ: Race 4 today) the 12 was a 20-1-on the morning line, opened at 12-1 and was bet down to 3-1 to go on to win. Just don’t get fooled, but use this to your advantage in horizontal wagering as a lot of horizontal money is bet here on the m/l and guys like Bigs and GPK have a lot of knowledge about how this track plays. Folks get sucked into to the tote, and realistically more often than not the payoffs don’t bear the public’s opinion, as evidenced by the payoffs of the first 4 P4’s of the meet paying : 10K, 4k, 796.00, and 1K.

Done venting - here goes:

R1
2 Honorable Turn - Drop and cutback has been a fairly successful angle lately Suffolk shippers doing well; last two efforts have been over an off surface but has been working well over the track; gets Centeno
10 Sir Fei – Turf to dirt, rt to sprint/ and a layoff..asking a bit much but may be what this guy needs
7 Golden Trend – another that has never seen dirt; nice works and class above
1 Time Jet – maybe needed a start over the track, plus you get a coupled entry

R2
4 Stack Blues – Hoo – more than able
7 Winter Whiskey – D Knipes first entry of the meet; dropping out of 30 to 5; love the name
1 Keystone Point – Horse is in form; Red Hot Rosie and Kirk are 45%so far this year

R3
7 Nola – T. Proctors Notebook is fresh, working well and gets Rosie
5 Hampton Road – Outclassed at 17.5k 2 weeks ago fits here
3 Cherokee Hunter – Sitting on a huge one – bridesmaid last 3 @ 25 – 16…drops to 12.5 against these, most likely

R4

1 My Philly – Gal likes the weeds; fired a bullet of 45 last week
2 The Real Future – 5 wide last at similar condition only beaten 3.5 lengths
8 The Lady Waffles – Gonzalez back aboard where won at this level 2 back
9 Glided Arrow - back in form gets Centeno

R5

4 Uno Way Calle 4-1-1-1 @ Tampa, bullet tightener coming in
7 Lake Juniper – nice work over the surface, in form and moving up; should take an uncontested lead early
10 Gemway Perfect over the Tampa dirt; rounding back into form

R6

7 Full Exertion
9 Big Red Girl
1 Chamapgne Surprise

R7

1 Irish Ballerina
7 Go Go Diablo
8 Firey Catch
10 Early Hatch
11 Sunshine Summer

R8

3 Outshine
4 Spikeavellian
6 Woody’s Apache

R9

1 A Little Halo Joy * If off turf sub the 3 Xep for Elmer
7 Lookinforthesecret
8 Spectular Orage
10 Hold the Salt

R10

6 All I Can Get
5 Angler’s Reef
7 Blind River Fox
3 It’s His Time

R11

9 Westcoasteastcoast
4 Awesome Attitude
2 Artax Collector

Bigsmc · #3 12-22-2007, 09:08 AM

Pick 4:

Small Ticket:

2,3,6,7/3,7,10/2,3,5,6/4 = $48 pays $238.80

Big Ticket:

2,3,6,7/3,7,10/2,3,5,6,7/2,4,6 = $180 pays $238.80

GL to all playing today.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #4 12-22-2007, 09:46 AM

congrats biggs...tampa bay

Rudeboyelvis · #5 12-22-2007, 10:26 AM

Track listed as Fast / Good

Scratches:

12/22/2007

Race # Horse # Name
1 1a Artistic Dream (POE)
2 3 Pepper Biscuit
2 9 Williwagcanfly
4 11 Lacy by Design
4 12 Montfort Lane
4 13 Lady Renaissance
4 14 Survicat
7 11 Sunshine Summer
7 12 Pegasus Prospector
7 13 Robyn's Maid
7 14 Inca Is Calling
9 5 Castle Concert
10 4 Sweet Grass Creek

Rudeboyelvis · #6 12-22-2007, 10:31 AM

P4

Big = 3,4,6/1,7,8,10/3,5,6,7/2,4,6,9 = 192.00
Small = 3,4,6/7,10/3,5,6,7/2,4,9 = 72.00

GPK · #7 12-22-2007, 10:44 AM

It may come back to haunt me, but I think ALL I CAN GET is a huge play against in the 10th race and will take a ton of money

Rudeboyelvis · #8 12-22-2007, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

It may come back to haunt me, but I think ALL I CAN GET is a huge play against in the 10th race and will take a ton of money

I don't know Kev, He runs well at Tampa, even though his record doesn't reflect it...2nd beaten 2 3/4th to Any Given Saturday in the Sam F Davis, then in a bit deep in the Tampa Derby, then jumped his shadow in the Sophmore..

I'm not thrilled with him, but would hate to leave him off

What's remarkable to me is the success of the 5 Angler's Reef at Tampa 6-3-2-0 and the 2 place efforts were by a neck and a head...doesn't seem to lift a hoof anywhere else

I like the 7 - has no problem stepping up out of starter handicaps to take down company like this, Big's girl is money when she rides him, and the suffolk horses seem to be in great form

That said, I'm probably going to be sorry I left the 2 off

fpsoxfan · #9 12-22-2007, 12:58 PM

Ruby....Thanks for the 2 in the 4th. I never would have used him until I read your picks.

Rudeboyelvis · #10 12-22-2007, 02:48 PM

Deb Artz...Again. Spikeavellian just flat gave up, Woody's Apache never got involved....37K super

Rudeboyelvis · #11 12-22-2007, 03:03 PM

P3

R9) 7
R10) all
R11) 2,4,6,8,9

30.00

The 10 Hold the Salt in the first leg does not do well over off turf - listed as good; looks more like yielding ...he's a toss for me