AOC Question

[greedyway]

Originally Posted by Linny

AOC races are (generally) tougher. As mentioned, a horse with 10 stakes wins could (in theory) be entered in a NW3x/Opt100, IF he were in for the tag. In NY and KY most opt.cl races draw some tough old birds who have long since "won out" of the allowance restriction.

Does anyone have advice on how to consider a horse's fit for an AOC race?

For testing a horse's fit in a given race, I use (among other things) Quirin pars. If a horse is entered into a Alw n1x/OC 80k race, should I look for that horse to have showed the n1x par (105) or the 80 Claim par (108)?

Likewise, is the winner of an Alw n1x/OC 80 considered superior to the winner of an n1x? Does the quality of the field in an AOC race depend on how many entries qualified on the condition and how many were in at the tag?

Thanks

[philcski]

No question, AOC's are a length or two tougher than the corresponding ALW condition. You get hard knockers like yesterday at Saratoga with Pay Attention- and to be honest those in for a tag often get overlooked whereas they win just as many as those in under the race conditions. I usually look at those in for a tag first, who are proven at the level, and evaluate the rest of the field based on their dope.

[Linny]

At a place like SAR, where "class" is the buzzword, those old claimers are the ones that generate big mutuels. Sometimes the multiple winners (horses through conditions in AOC's) or those in straight NW1x's with multiple claiming wins (like today's Valente/Levine horse or Lord Snowdon and Eqypt Lane) are overlays more often at this type of meet.

Assuming that at least one horse in the race is carrying the tag, you should consider the $80k par as the requisite fig. The horses going through conditions have to beat those that are through, so they have to step up to reach par. I generally consider the winner of any AOC in NY or KY or Socal to be superior to the winner of the same allowance condition w/o the option.

In the AOC's I like to see the tag horses showing some current form and I love to see a win recently over straight claiming horses at a tag close to todays. I like horse coming out of fast paced races. Ex; Right now there are bunches of horses in AOC's, mid-claiming and starters who have been chasing Indian War Dance. IWD is very fast and I give horses extra "points" if they have tried to run with him recently.

One caveat about NY AOC's: Campo has not quite gotten up to speed with them. He'll card some NW1xs with a $50K tag and a week later the 1x has a $75k tag. At Calder and Delaware there are very consistant. Calder NW1x's carry a $16k tag, NW2x's are $25k and NW3x's are $35k. The variation in claiming prices makes class assessment harder.

[greedyway]

Thanks for your responses, they are very helpful.

[SentToStud]

It depends on where you are and time of year to some extent but the biggest factor is the Alw class level. Classified Alw's with optional claiming are tougher and the n3x's as well. But I know for certain, at least in So Florida, straight N1x and N2x are tougher races than optionals with the same conditions, n1x/16 and n2x/25.