Wednesday night thoughts on Derby

[somerfrost]

Here is what I see on Wednesday, subject to my mind changing a few times:
post
1) Sedgefield...two wins lifetime, one on turf, one on Poly, no stake wins, draws the "death post". I think this one's future is on the grass....100-1 here!
2) Curlin...3 lifetime starts, didn't run until this February. This may be the favorite but look for him to be bounced around in the run to the first turn and never recover...look elsewhere!
3) Zanjero...no stake wins, three races, three 3rds this year, does have an Alw win at CD, other on poly. Stablemate of Curlin...could get minor part.
4) Storm In May...qualifies on angles but appears slow at a distance, both dirt wins were sprints...doubtful factor at 10f.
5) Imawildandcrazyguy...14pts in DP, no stake win, doesn't belong in the Derby.
6) Cowtown Cat...qualifies on angles, seems to be an improving colt, won last two...could be a factor if fast enough.
7) Street Sense...BCJ winner with only 2 starts this year, he loves CD (won BCJ here), appears to back up a step on poly, been working extremely well...my second choice.
8) Hard Spun...RAN Curse, last race 3/24. worked 5f in 57.3 on 4/30...that's hard to figure, many are picking him...I'll pass!
9) Liquidity...no stake win, only win a maiden...doesn't belong here.
10) Teufelsberg...qualifies on angles, daddy didn't like distance, could be a pace factor, don't see him around in stretch.
11) Bwana Bull...5th in last beaten over 5 lengths. Northern Cal runner, these usually are a step below.
12) Nobiz Like Shobiz...qualifies on angles, nice DP, never ran a bad one, two losses both less than a length...my pick!
13) Sam P....RAN Curse, no stake win. No wins this year...appears a step behind.
14) Scat Daddy...RAN Curse, didn't fire in BCJ, will get action. Gut call here...pass.
15) Tiago...Giacomo's brother, woke up last with Smith. Only 4 lifetime starts...29-1 in last, those seldom step up in class and win...pass.
16) Circular Quay...two starts this year, last way back on 3/10...question soundness and conditioning! Does appear to like CD (3/2-1-0), consider for minor part.
17) Stormello...RAN Curse, two starts this year, don't see this guy at all.
18) Any Given Saturday...qualifies on angles, two of three wins on poly but seems to have improved this year, minor player from here!
19) Dominican...16 pts in DP, two starts this year, all three LT wins on poly, I actually like this guy but post is a killer, possibly minor player.
20) Great Hunter...RAN Curse, two starts this year, 20 post...too much to overcome, pass.

Plays:
Nobiz (12)...win
Street Sense (7)...win & Ex with Nobiz
3,6,16,18,19...exotics


This is what it looked like to me last night...now I wait for something to change my mind...

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Here is what I see on Wednesday, subject to my mind changing a few times:
post
1) Sedgefield...two wins lifetime, one on turf, one on Poly, no stake wins, draws the "death post". I think this one's future is on the grass....100-1 here!
2) Curlin...3 lifetime starts, didn't run until this February. This may be the favorite but look for him to be bounced around in the run to the first turn and never recover...look elsewhere!
3) Zanjero...no stake wins, three races, three 3rds this year, does have an Alw win at CD, other on poly. Stablemate of Curlin...could get minor part.
4) Storm In May...qualifies on angles but appears slow at a distance, both dirt wins were sprints...doubtful factor at 10f.
5) Imawildandcrazyguy...14pts in DP, no stake win, doesn't belong in the Derby.
6) Cowtown Cat...qualifies on angles, seems to be an improving colt, won last two...could be a factor if fast enough.
7) Street Sense...BCJ winner with only 2 starts this year, he loves CD (won BCJ here), appears to back up a step on poly, been working extremely well...my second choice.
8) Hard Spun...RAN Curse, last race 3/24. worked 5f in 57.3 on 4/30...that's hard to figure, many are picking him...I'll pass!
9) Liquidity...no stake win, only win a maiden...doesn't belong here.
10) Teufelsberg...qualifies on angles, daddy didn't like distance, could be a pace factor, don't see him around in stretch.
11) Bwana Bull...5th in last beaten over 5 lengths. Northern Cal runner, these usually are a step below.
12) Nobiz Like Shobiz...qualifies on angles, nice DP, never ran a bad one, two losses both less than a length...my pick!
13) Sam P....RAN Curse, no stake win. No wins this year...appears a step behind.
14) Scat Daddy...RAN Curse, didn't fire in BCJ, will get action. Gut call here...pass.
15) Tiago...Giacomo's brother, woke up last with Smith. Only 4 lifetime starts...29-1 in last, those seldom step up in class and win...pass.
16) Circular Quay...two starts this year, last way back on 3/10...question soundness and conditioning! Does appear to like CD (3/2-1-0), consider for minor part.
17) Stormello...RAN Curse, two starts this year, don't see this guy at all.
18) Any Given Saturday...qualifies on angles, two of three wins on poly but seems to have improved this year, minor player from here!
19) Dominican...16 pts in DP, two starts this year, all three LT wins on poly, I actually like this guy but post is a killer, possibly minor player.
20) Great Hunter...RAN Curse, two starts this year, 20 post...too much to overcome, pass.

Plays:
Nobiz (12)...win
Street Sense (7)...win & Ex with Nobiz
3,6,16,18,19...exotics


This is what it looked like to me last night...now I wait for something to change my mind...

Very clear reasoning for your choices. How have you done in the past?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Unstable

Very clear reasoning for your choices. How have you done in the past?

Like everyone, I win some and lose some...I had Barbaro last year, loved Smarty Jones, best hits recently were Charismatic and Thunder Gulch. The Derby is a crapshoot...I have good solid reasons listed but someone else could list good solid reasons for opposite conclusions on each horse!

[timmgirvan]

Somer: I think you're dead-on with NoCal horses being 'short'! JHs' horses have been that way for ages. I think I'm going to turn on the tube to watch the race and just wait to see who shows up at the finish line!

[golfer]

Somer, that was an excellent rundown. I agree with most of what you wrote.. although will wait a day or two till making final decisions. Initial thoughts are Street Sense is the key, NoBiz will either finally break thru on Saturday or run out of the money.

By the way, unless my computer has mis-interpreted when you posted this, Today is THURSDAY.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by golfer

Somer, that was an excellent rundown. I agree with most of what you wrote.. although will wait a day or two till making final decisions. Initial thoughts are Street Sense is the key, NoBiz will either finally break thru on Saturday or run out of the money.

By the way, unless my computer has mis-interpreted when you posted this, Today is THURSDAY.

LOL, yes, I wrote this last night and sent it to a friend (SCC's lady...she's really gotten into racing), I pasted it here cause I'm too lazy to re-write.

[somerfrost]

They are reporting a 60% chance of rain on Saturday, the Distorted Humor's will most certainly move up on an off track, should be ok for Nobiz as well.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

They are reporting a 60% chance of rain on Saturday, the Distorted Humor's will most certainly move up on an off track, should be ok for Nobiz as well.

I was thinking the same thing. Cowtown Cat instead of Any Given Saturday

Hard Spun, Stormello, Nobiz and possibly Teuflesberg(does he even like Churchill?) could help this pace set up for Street Sense and Zanjero. Circular Quay ? Can't play 'em all. I either hit or miss this year I'm not going chase it.

Gotta forget about Great Hunter and Dominican just too far out.

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Here is what I see on Wednesday, subject to my mind changing a few times:
post
1) Sedgefield...two wins lifetime, one on turf, one on Poly, no stake wins, draws the "death post". I think this one's future is on the grass....100-1 here!
2) Curlin...3 lifetime starts, didn't run until this February. This may be the favorite but look for him to be bounced around in the run to the first turn and never recover...look elsewhere!
3) Zanjero...no stake wins, three races, three 3rds this year, does have an Alw win at CD, other on poly. Stablemate of Curlin...could get minor part.
4) Storm In May...qualifies on angles but appears slow at a distance, both dirt wins were sprints...doubtful factor at 10f.
5) Imawildandcrazyguy...14pts in DP, no stake win, doesn't belong in the Derby.
6) Cowtown Cat...qualifies on angles, seems to be an improving colt, won last two...could be a factor if fast enough.
7) Street Sense...BCJ winner with only 2 starts this year, he loves CD (won BCJ here), appears to back up a step on poly, been working extremely well...my second choice.
8) Hard Spun...RAN Curse, last race 3/24. worked 5f in 57.3 on 4/30...that's hard to figure, many are picking him...I'll pass!
9) Liquidity...no stake win, only win a maiden...doesn't belong here.
10) Teufelsberg...qualifies on angles, daddy didn't like distance, could be a pace factor, don't see him around in stretch.
11) Bwana Bull...5th in last beaten over 5 lengths. Northern Cal runner, these usually are a step below.
12) Nobiz Like Shobiz...qualifies on angles, nice DP, never ran a bad one, two losses both less than a length...my pick!
13) Sam P....RAN Curse, no stake win. No wins this year...appears a step behind.
14) Scat Daddy...RAN Curse, didn't fire in BCJ, will get action. Gut call here...pass.
15) Tiago...Giacomo's brother, woke up last with Smith. Only 4 lifetime starts...29-1 in last, those seldom step up in class and win...pass.
16) Circular Quay...two starts this year, last way back on 3/10...question soundness and conditioning! Does appear to like CD (3/2-1-0), consider for minor part.
17) Stormello...RAN Curse, two starts this year, don't see this guy at all.
18) Any Given Saturday...qualifies on angles, two of three wins on poly but seems to have improved this year, minor player from here!
19) Dominican...16 pts in DP, two starts this year, all three LT wins on poly, I actually like this guy but post is a killer, possibly minor player.
20) Great Hunter...RAN Curse, two starts this year, 20 post...too much to overcome, pass.

Plays:
Nobiz (12)...win
Street Sense (7)...win & Ex with Nobiz
3,6,16,18,19...exotics


This is what it looked like to me last night...now I wait for something to change my mind...

Good post. The 4 I am going to have to use in a win/place are all off your choices. But this looks good. I think Nobiz will get used up, but if the pace is reasonable not a bad pick. I like the backups in the exotics.

[ArlJim78]

I have always liked NoBiz. The only problem i have using him on top in the derby is that he seems to expend too much energy in the early stages wanting to run too fast, headstrong. If the rider has to forcibly hold him back like his recent races i don't think he will have enough late.

He does have qualities though that remind me of a derby winner.
regardless of how i bet, he is one that i would not mind seeing take the roses,
i just think he will come up short.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I have always liked NoBiz. The only problem i have using him on top in the derby is that he seems to expend too much energy in the early stages wanting to run too fast, headstrong. If the rider has to forcibly hold him back like his recent races i don't think he will have enough late.

He does have qualities though that remind me of a derby winner.
regardless of how i bet, he is one that i would not mind seeing take the roses,
i just think he will come up short.

The physical standout in the field has to be Street Sense, I wish I could commit to him but I keep thinking of Point Given, I have always admired Nobiz's trainer and I think he'll run his best race tomorrow...will it be good enough? We will know a whole lot when the first spit time is posted...

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I have always liked NoBiz. The only problem i have using him on top in the derby is that he seems to expend too much energy in the early stages wanting to run too fast, headstrong. If the rider has to forcibly hold him back like his recent races i don't think he will have enough late.

He does have qualities though that remind me of a derby winner.
regardless of how i bet, he is one that i would not mind seeing take the roses,
i just think he will come up short.

I feel the same way about NoBiz, I like him, but think he will be too headstrong in the Derby and waste too much energy.. he may still put in a heck of a run, but end up running 4th.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Here is what I see on Wednesday, subject to my mind changing a few times:
post
1) Sedgefield...two wins lifetime, one on turf, one on Poly, no stake wins, draws the "death post". I think this one's future is on the grass....100-1 here!
2) Curlin...3 lifetime starts, didn't run until this February. This may be the favorite but look for him to be bounced around in the run to the first turn and never recover...look elsewhere!
3) Zanjero...no stake wins, three races, three 3rds this year, does have an Alw win at CD, other on poly. Stablemate of Curlin...could get minor part.
4) Storm In May...qualifies on angles but appears slow at a distance, both dirt wins were sprints...doubtful factor at 10f.
5) Imawildandcrazyguy...14pts in DP, no stake win, doesn't belong in the Derby.
6) Cowtown Cat...qualifies on angles, seems to be an improving colt, won last two...could be a factor if fast enough.
7) Street Sense...BCJ winner with only 2 starts this year, he loves CD (won BCJ here), appears to back up a step on poly, been working extremely well...my second choice.
8) Hard Spun...RAN Curse, last race 3/24. worked 5f in 57.3 on 4/30...that's hard to figure, many are picking him...I'll pass!
9) Liquidity...no stake win, only win a maiden...doesn't belong here.
10) Teufelsberg...qualifies on angles, daddy didn't like distance, could be a pace factor, don't see him around in stretch.
11) Bwana Bull...5th in last beaten over 5 lengths. Northern Cal runner, these usually are a step below.
12) Nobiz Like Shobiz...qualifies on angles, nice DP, never ran a bad one, two losses both less than a length...my pick!
13) Sam P....RAN Curse, no stake win. No wins this year...appears a step behind.
14) Scat Daddy...RAN Curse, didn't fire in BCJ, will get action. Gut call here...pass.
15) Tiago...Giacomo's brother, woke up last with Smith. Only 4 lifetime starts...29-1 in last, those seldom step up in class and win...pass.
16) Circular Quay...two starts this year, last way back on 3/10...question soundness and conditioning! Does appear to like CD (3/2-1-0), consider for minor part.
17) Stormello...RAN Curse, two starts this year, don't see this guy at all.
18) Any Given Saturday...qualifies on angles, two of three wins on poly but seems to have improved this year, minor player from here!
19) Dominican...16 pts in DP, two starts this year, all three LT wins on poly, I actually like this guy but post is a killer, possibly minor player.
20) Great Hunter...RAN Curse, two starts this year, 20 post...too much to overcome, pass.

Plays:
Nobiz (12)...win
Street Sense (7)...win & Ex with Nobiz
3,6,16,18,19...exotics


This is what it looked like to me last night...now I wait for something to change my mind...

Well, it's Friday night and I've seen nothing to change my mind so barring a late scratch or a cloudburst tomorrow...this is probably what I'll live and die with!