Jeremy Plonk on Polytrack

[brianwspencer]

I read this on Plonk's Countdown to the Crown page this afternoon. I'm torn as to what to think of it -- as part of me thinks that he's halfway right, but part of me thinks he's completely off base. I think that Keeneland has a definite closing bias, but I do agree with him when he says that this track eliminates the speed bias that horses have been enjoying for years. I just don't think it's as extreme as he says it is, making it sound like there is no bias at all. Tired frontrunners don't account for a 3% win rate on the front end. Thoughts on how he frames it?

First, tune out all griping and moaning about Polytrack and a "closer's" bias. It's absolutely impossible for me to come up with an explanation for how spotting any athlete a distance of ground is advantageous (other than drafting into wind - and that has no bearing on what's under the horses hooves). Would Jeff Gordon be better off starting in Row 14 or the pole position? Would Champ Bailey have a better chance of covering Randy Moss (the OTHER Randy Moss, with gold teeth) if he gave him a 10-yard head start? Would you be better off in the company picnic's burlap-bag race if Stewie from accounting was given a four-hop headstart? Of course not. It's not even common sensical.

What Polytrack does is take away the ADVANTAGE that speed horses have enjoyed for decades in American racing. When you skip over hard-packed, dirt pavement and your feet don't go but a credit-card's depth into the soil, you tend not to get tired. It's that whole jogging on the beach analogy. Without this former advantage, forward-placed horses now have their masks taken off, and must actually be able to run all-out for the required distance. To further the sports comparison, aren't the best teams always the ones who play better in the fourth quarter, not the first? Don't you want a boxer who can last 12 rounds in a heavyweight title bout, not punch himself out in Round 3? Isn't Kobayashi the best Nathan's Hot Dog eater because he can pound that 200th footlonger as fast as the first? (Maybe that one was a bit much...but you get the point.)

So I'm here to say that Polytrack, as frustrating as it may seem to get a grip on given the years of past peformance lines looking us all in the face, actually puts the best horse in the winner's circle. Get used to it. Accept it. And finally learn that class will trump speed at any serious distance of ground, no matter how many books were written on the latter. Remember this: you can write a handicapping book about numbers easily, they're quantifiable. Explaining class and quality are subjective, and difficult to communicate to the masses. That's why you don't see nearly as much written about class in racing as compared to speed. And that fact doesn't mean speed is more important, no matter how many used books you can pick up about it at Amazon.com.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Without this former advantage, forward-placed horses now have their masks taken off, and must actually be able to run all-out for the required distance.... So I'm here to say that Polytrack, as frustrating as it may seem to get a grip on given the years of past peformance lines looking us all in the face, actually puts the best horse in the winner's circle[/i]

I agree with the above portion. My impression is that horses that are ready to run their race do. There are no free rides. The horse has to earn the win. The horses seem to need, not only a turn of foot, but muscular strength and fitness. More depth of conditioning. I think the surface is forgiving of some bone and tendon weaknesses and minor sorenesses, but demanding of cardiovascular and muscular systems. Any given horse can still run - and win - with the style they are comfortable with.

As an aside, perhaps poly is exposing trainers who are more adept at reading a condition book and sizing up the opposition than others may be, too.

I've always looked closely at horses in the paddock, how they move in warmup, what they've been doing the past week leading up to a big race, how they come back and walk off. Since poly I love handicapping Keeneland, perhaps simply because now the racing is more suitable to my handicapping style.

Many are disappointed in the way the Bluegrass unfolded. For me, the splits hardly matter at all. The most important thing I want to know about that race is: how did those horses come out of it, and what did they get out of it? If those horses were tired the next day or two, but not sore, look out and stand back next time they run.

Trainers w/experience on poly can please comment on my impressions the effect of conditioning on this surface has on their horses. I would very much like to hear their thoughts.

The one thing I've not done, that I would love to do, is ride a horse over that surface, to see what it feels like.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

if the jocks didint think they were riding on turf..it would help

[Benny Leger]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

if the jocks didint think they were riding on turf..it would help

I could'nt agree more hooves. Either the riders are over reacting, or they are getting their instructions (bad) from some of the trainers. There have been plenty of races this meet which have had blazing fractions. Plenty of the sprints have went in 21/44 or 22/45. " Sumwon's " route (8.5 fur.) went in 22.2/46.4 A two year old just set the world record for 4.5 fur. If the surface recieves adequate water it can be very quick. It may take a while for the connections to figure out the best tactics for their horses particular running style, but over all this surface provides a fair chance for all the runners. Bettors will have to adjust, but the track is fair from rail to rail. I've struggled with this since turfway switched surfaces, but in the long run I believe it is a good thing for these particular tracks. After a few meets I think things will get back closer to normal.

[Cannon Shell]

There is no question in my opinion that the outside part of the track especially in the stretch is firmer and therefore faster than the inside.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There is no question in my opinion that the outside part of the track especially in the stretch is firmer and therefore faster than the inside.

Any idea why?

[Benny Leger]

that's good info cannon. thx. I'll use it while capping the rest of the meet. Hope our girl is doing fine. See ya at CD if she gets in next week.

[Riot]

Was listening to DT Live first hour, Kasept mentioned that Chuck didn't think horses got any exceptional fitness/conditioning via running/training over the poly surface alone.

Good info to have, will reassess Bluegrass results ....

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Riot

Was listening to DT Live first hour, Kasept mentioned that Chuck didn't think horses got any exceptional fitness/conditioning via running/training over the poly surface alone.

Good info to have, will reassess Bluegrass results ....

It is hard to think that these horses who are only really running hard for the last 3 furlongs will be as sharp or fit as horses coming out of traditional dirt races.

[JJP]

Is it mere coincidence that after early speed was horrible all fall meet and up thru last weekend at Kee, after Beyer lashed out at Kee, the track became more speed friendly?

I think Kee management was hell-bent on erasing the rail-highway image of the former dirt track, and we saw 1 wire job for the entire fall meet (main track). Then, Beyer and others come out saying the track is just as big of a joke as before, if not worse. I guarantee you his column lit a fire under the butts of Kee management.