3/19: Gulfstream (Carryover)

Kasept · #1 03-19-2007, 06:24 AM

2 important notes that could be profitable at Gulfstream today... Coming off a nice day Saturday, inclined to tab the Carryover going into the Monday card...

1.) "Ultimate Equipment Change" (Oh So Awesome, 7th): On the Tholro-Graph 'Ask the Experts' page, Barry Irwin of Team Valor revealed that Oh So Awesome, listed as a colt in the PP's, has been gelded since his last start...

2.) "Two in the Bush" (Vern Bush for Bobby DiBona, 8th/9th): Ran into the great Vern Bush, a big Carolina Barbecue fan when he visits Toga, Saturday at Tampa. Vern told me he was coming in to Hallandale to ride a pair for Bobby DiBona... The #5 Cherokee Heat (5-1) in the 8th and the #6 True Genius (5-1) in the nightcap. The numbers? Bush with DiBona: 21 starts, 7 wins (33%), 13 ITM finishes (71%). Just an FYI..

GULFSTREAM/PRE-SCRATCHES

Superfectas in all races..

4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

1. #5 Bite the Wind 3-1: First for tag..
2. #2 Vigorous 5-2: 3rd/break; cuts back..
A. #4 Dennis's Dream 5-1: Adds Corny, doffs goggles.. WON
B. #3 Canyoucatchmenow 4-1: Off year+; dangerous if ready..

5th: CLM, 3yo, 1m-T (DD, P3)

1. #1 Patriotic American 3-1: Looks who visits; drops $25k; saves ground.. WON
2. #8 Mary'sdixietune 6-1: Tough to embrace dreadful Hartman (15/0-0-4) 3rd
A. #3 Mandu Genius 6-1: Tricky Vickie gelding moves inside after fair try last.. 2nd
B. #10 Divine Prayer 8-1: Trust Edgar to work out trip from tough slot..

LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: #7 Packer Sweep 12-1: Always respect Plesa.. 4th

$2 Exacta 1-3 $25.40
$2 Trifecta 1-3-8 $96.60
$1 Quad/Superfecta 1-3-8-7 $886.00

6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 9f (DD, P4, P3)

1. #3 Greeley's Legacy 9-5: 2nd in comeback was sharp.. WON
2. #6 Barcola 5-2: Is this why Coa came down?
3. #4 Deputy Indy 4-1: Note 2nd/layoff win @ BEL in September.. 2nd

$2 Exacta 3-4 $21.60

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

1. #8 Oh So Awesome 3-1: Newly gelded, faced stakes quality this trip @ KEE.. 4th
2. #3 Hard Deck 4-1: Our guy Fred tabs Eddie for marathon-made chestnut.. 2nd
A. #6 Blue Mon 6-1: Last win came going 2 miles.. 3rd
B. #4 Ambassador Dan 4-1: Neckjobbed this voyage two back; troubled last..

8th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 6f (DD)

1. #4 Riggins 6-1: Square ML number on rock solid Plesa product.. 3rd
2. #5 Cherokee Heat 6-1: Expect good tries from both Bush-DiBona entrants..
A. #8 Hot Space 3-1: Cold Ziadie adds Corny but may duel with one on rail.. 2nd
B. #1 Bark Dust 5-2: Pletcher-Johnny V. bay drops back from ALW try..

$2 Exacta 1-8 $12.80
$2 Trifecta 1-8-4 $45.20

9th: ALW/S, 4+, 5f-T

1. #9 Not Acclaim 3-1: 6yo gelding has mastered these turf sprints.. WON
2. #8 Shane Jules 8-1: Unknown trainer 3/2 here; fast and tries lawn
A. #6 True Genius 6-1: DiBona 8yo another fast enough but lawn iffy.. 3rd
B. #11 Lucky to Cope 6-1/#1 Castle Concert 4-1 4th : Always leary of leaving out Wilensky and he saddles uncoupled pair here..

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 2-5
5: 1
6: 3-6
7: 2-8
8: 4-5
9: 6-8-9

2x1x2x2x2x3 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$48 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-6
7: 8
8: 1-4-5-8
9: 6-8-9-11

3x1x4x4 = $48

Good luck!
Steve

tap · #2 03-19-2007, 11:38 AM

R3 #10 The Other Guey 12/1 ML

R6 #1 Famous Frolic 6/1 ML 3rd

R7 #6 Blue Mon 6/1 ML 3rd

hockey2315 · #3 03-19-2007, 11:47 AM

Thanks for that info about Oh So Awesome, Steve. . . I've always had a thing for him since he stared me down at SAR. . .

Kasept · #4 03-19-2007, 12:41 PM

Suggestion has been made that ignoring #9 Proclamation (4-1) may be dangerous in the GP 5th... Was pretty courageous in last after troubled voyage... I've cast my lot by singling the #1 there though. An FYI for those spreading it around.

brianwspencer · #5 03-19-2007, 01:15 PM

Steve, in the 7th, you use the 2-8 in the p6, but don't have the 2 in your top selections. Any reason?

#6 03-19-2007, 01:58 PM

Live w/ 1,2 for p3 have a feeling the 1 is a rat though, comeon 2 !

not such a rat after all, 146 p3 pretty good for that sequence, now for the 3,6 in the next. 123 / 106 i guess noboday is betting p3s today. get on board

Kasept · #7 03-19-2007, 02:26 PM

GP 5th should help those that don't appreciate the concept of my "5th selection", the "Longshot/Exotics Add"...

By utilizing Packer Sweep 'underneath', you caught the horse that made the Superfecta worth betting at 25-1...

$886.00 for $1 with the P6 single on top..

blackthroatedwind · #8 03-19-2007, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

GP 5th should help those that don't appreciate the concept of a 5th selection, the "Longshot/Exotics Add"... By utilizing Packer Sweep 'underneath', you caught the horse that made the Superfecta worth betting... $886.00 with the P6 single winning on top...

Just noticed your comment about Coa on Barcola......aside from the fact that Barcola is a 20 claimer, and his being favored is one of the funniest things I've ever seen, Coa has ridden ( poorly ) a number of Mondays at this meet. He must have family that he goes to see or something while they aren't racing in NY.

Kasept · #9 03-19-2007, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Steve, in the 7th, you use the 2-8 in the p6, but don't have the 2 in your top selections. Any reason?

The "F.L.O.P."

Fear
Losing
Omitting
Pletcher)

brianwspencer · #10 03-19-2007, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

The "F.L.O.P."

Fear
Losing
Omitting
Pletcher)

Gotcha.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

GP 5th should help those that don't appreciate the concept of my "5th selection", the "Longshot/Exotics Add"...

By utilizing Packer Sweep 'underneath', you caught the horse that made the Superfecta worth betting at 25-1...

$886.00 for $1 with the P6 single on top..

I keyed him third. Stupid. I liked his debut we saw in January, and then the whole Trippis on the lawn discussion from the other day made me upgrade him further. Oh well.

hockey2315 · #11 03-19-2007, 02:46 PM

I don't have the PPs for today but I can't see this Pletcher horse winning at 1 1/2 miles. . . Forest Wildcat doesn't really throw long distance runners. . .

hockey2315 · #12 03-19-2007, 02:58 PM

Couldn't have been more wrong. . . Ouch. . .

#13 03-19-2007, 03:00 PM

You weren't wrong. You're dealing with jockeys who don't have a clock in their head.

#14 03-19-2007, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

You weren't wrong. You're dealing with jockeys who don't have a clock in their head.

yes, those ding dongs. 48.4, 1.15 got outrode. i also noted the forest wildcat breeding, but he was really the only speed in the race which often wins these marathons when left alone at home.

lets now hope that the chalkfest continues and the p4 pays $82. now that we're out of it.

P4 willpay w/ 9 is $46 ! Guess i overestimated.

hockey2315 · #15 03-19-2007, 03:29 PM

I totally respect Pletcher but I'm starting to hate seeing his name when I handicap a card. . . He takes all value out of a race. . .

MISTERGEE · #16 03-19-2007, 05:26 PM

he probably puts value in a race. by his horses usually being overbet you will get some nice odds on the others. yeah he wins his share but not near enough to come close to making a profit.

hockey2315 · #17 03-19-2007, 05:41 PM

It's tough to bet against him, though. . . and when you do- there's a good chance you'll lose. ..

#18 03-20-2007, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's tough to bet against him, though. . . and when you do- there's a good chance you'll lose. ..

I think steve said it best with his coined phrase. FLOP. Kinda like your damned if you do and damned if you don't. I often do the same thing with horses that have jockey switches. " I like the horse, but Prado was on last time, but he went to another horse today". When in doubt include them both and spend less time beating yourself up. In the end though, pletcher as one of the highest % trainers at 25%, still loses 3 out of 4. so hopefully the greater odds on betting against will make up for the ones you miss. The 'ol kinky handicapping, taking a step backwards to go 2 steps forward.

The "F.L.O.P."

Fear
Losing
Omitting
Pletcher)