8/12: Saratoga (Day 22-Coronation Cup, Kid Russell)

[Kasept]

Sunday's otherwise idyllic day at Saratoga were brought down considerably by unpleasant circumstances surrounding the running of the Adirondack. A bad step doomed McPeek's Charmed Hour at the back of the filly stake, while poor decision-making by Joel Rosario and Corey Lanerie were affecting the outcome through the stretch. Drawn inside, Lanerie and the heavily favored Fiftyshadesofgold were in jackpots all the way around the track and missed opportunities for an alternate route more than once before attempting to thread a needle inside Rosario and tiring Who's in Town. Rosario's desire to deny Lanerie and the Bret Calhoun trainee passage came close to initiating a pile up and resulted in the Michael Matz being disqualified from the win. The decision, which was a virtual certainty, elevated the hard-trying LA-bred Designer Legs into the circle. While Rosario was 100% wrong with his yellow card actions, Lanerie's failure to provide his gal a less harrowing route has to be acknowledged. Even more difficult though was the death throes of Charmed Hour who could not be prevented from making right in front of grandstand apron patrons. It completely diminished the otherwise perfect afternoon and weekend. Week 4 closes out with an interesting slate..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Lots of class dropping going on which makes for potential chaos. What there isn't in here, is a great deal of speed..

Most Likely: #5 Inflation Target 2-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Tummel 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Martini Madness 12-1 WON ($12.20)


2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Well-matched field and vulnerable favorite Bin Elusive has to improve to contend..

Most Likely: #7 Seven Dreams 6-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Hillary D 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Bin Elusive 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Hailey's Star 7-2 6th


3rd: 2nd Coronation Cup, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Magical Moon 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Little Sandy 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Lignite 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Mystic Love 8-1 5th


4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Hard to argue with C. Brown's numbers with horses like Leroy Jr. and you best believe he is out to impress the well-heeled new client involved..

Most Likely: #4 Leroy Jr. 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 National Buck 4-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Downgoesfrazier 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Insighting 7-2 5th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

C. Brown looks for double here with sharp-working firster Due Diligence..

Most Likely: #8 Due Diligence 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #7 Sum Superstar 5-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Vigorish 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 No Dishonor 4-1 4th


<$50/$25 P4 Play:

2: ALL
3: 3-5-6
4: 4-6
5: 8

8x3x2x1 = $48 ($24 for .50)


6th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Inaflash 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #8 Rettalfa 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Darnley Bay 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Toast to Ashley 4-1 3rd


7th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Terrific group. SCR of Dawly changes complexion a bit..

Most Likely: #5 The Truth and K G 4-1 WON ($9.70)
Best Value: #7 Frazil 15-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Hello Lover 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Nevada Kid 12-1 7th


8th: Kid Russell-R, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Another set of good horses led by favorite Hardened Wildcat who always fires..

Most Likely: #5 Hardened Wildcat 2-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Right to Vote 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Candyman E 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Trolius 12-1 5th


9th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Don't Say No 3-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Radiohead 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Sokitumi Samurai 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Special Selection 15-1 7th


10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Doesn't Edie look almost too likely?

Most Likely: #4 Edie 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #3 Chick in Slacks 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Town Flirt 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Glamour Galore 10-1 -


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 5-6-7-8
8: 2-5
9: 1-2-5
10: 4-3-8-10

4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S