Inner track meet so far

[Left Bank]

Is it just me, or is the inner track starting to have more and more short field races? Seems many races of late have been having short fields, mirroring southern California. Do we have a horse shortage at Aqueduct this winter, or has everyone gone to Gulfstream?

[ranger5830]

It's not just you. So far, since the beginning of the inner track meet on 12-12, there have been 135 races with a total of 992 starters, for an average of just 7.35 starters per race. There has only been one 12-horse field and one 11-horse field, the rest have all been 10 or less. It actually hadn't been that bad until Sunday, when just 53 horses ran in 9 races, and today, when 57 ran in 9 races. Up until then, they were averaging 7.54 starters per race, which is down from Belmont but still not bad.

Sometimes we live in a "what have you done for me lately" world and since the last two race days have undoubtedly had very short fields it makes it seem like an ongoing problem, but hopefully these two days are just an aberration and fuller fields are coming.

[booner]

What were field sizes last year?

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by booner

What were field sizes last year?

The inner track meet started two weeks earlier last year, so for an apples-to-apples comparison I just used the corresponding dates last year, from 12-14-11 to 1-11-12. There were 16 race dates (one more than this year due to a cancellation) and 1128 horses ran in 144 races, or an average of 7.83 starters per race.

[booner]

Thanks for digging up the info. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next month.

[parsixfarms]

Like last winter, there are plenty of empty stalls. However, there are two very significant differences between this year and last year: (1) the recently enacted rules expanding the recommended withdrawal times for clenbuterol in New York will likely limit the number of shippers from the mid-Atlantic states; and (2) with the "bottom" claiming price being raised from $7500 to $12,500, the connections of many of the lower-level horses that may have tried to compete here last year aren't making the effort now, especially with the rules restricting the purse to no more than 2X the claiming price.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Like last winter, there are plenty of empty stalls. However, there are two very significant differences between this year and last year: (1) the recently enacted rules expanding the recommended withdrawal times for clenbuterol in New York will likely limit the number of shippers from the mid-Atlantic states; and (2) with the "bottom" claiming price being raised from $7500 to $12,500, the connections of many of the lower-level horses that may have tried to compete here last year aren't making the effort now, especially with the rules restricting the purse to no more than 2X the claiming price.

I don't agree with the new rule to limit the purses to 2x of claiming tag. I loved when MP had nickels running for 30k. I loved how the fields were huge and horses would drop from being well placed in 20k claimer into 5's. I thought it was fun handicapping and added to the fun. What's wrong with a field of 12 7500 claimers running for 28k?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I don't agree with the new rule to limit the purses to 2x of claiming tag. I loved when MP had nickels running for 30k. I loved how the fields were huge and horses would drop from being well placed in 20k claimer into 5's. I thought it was fun handicapping and added to the fun. What's wrong with a field of 12 7500 claimers running for 28k?

I understand what the rule is intended to accomplish; I'm not sure it does that, especially with tracks like Parx having $7,500 claimers running for purses that are at least 3X the claiming price.

I always thought that, when things got rough the past few years, NYRA "cheapened" the condition book to avoid having to announce a purse cut. For example, it is not that long ago that the bottom claiming price on turf was $35,000; it was dropped to $25,000 (with essentially the same horses), with a corresponding drop in purse (and has subsequently been dropped even further). One way to get around the new rule would be to reinflate the condition book (in the example above, re-raise the bottom claiming price on turf to $35,000); then the rule has little applicability. I'm surprised that NYRA has not done that.

[Calzone Lord]

I never understood the ridiculousness of making the bottom level claiming price for turf races so high.

Even still, in a lot of different parts of the country, there are so many times where a cheap horse has a pedigree slanted strongly to turf racing...but the trainer would rather run him for $5,000 to $10,000 tags where he's barely even competitive, than try him on turf for $16,000 to $25,000 tags at the bottom.

Like you said:

For example, it is not that long ago that the bottom claiming price on turf was $35,000; it was dropped to $25,000 (with essentially the same horses),

There is also less incentive to claim a turf horse in the East and Mid-West, because you don't have year-round turf racing ... and, in those eight months out of a year when you do have turf racing, you get rained off the turf sometimes.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Like last winter, there are plenty of empty stalls. However, there are two very significant differences between this year and last year: (1) the recently enacted rules expanding the recommended withdrawal times for clenbuterol in New York will likely limit the number of shippers from the mid-Atlantic states; and (2) with the "bottom" claiming price being raised from $7500 to $12,500, the connections of many of the lower-level horses that may have tried to compete here last year aren't making the effort now, especially with the rules restricting the purse to no more than 2X the claiming price.

I forgot about the bottom tag being raised.
Ranger, thanks for looking up the data.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I don't agree with the new rule to limit the purses to 2x of claiming tag. I loved when MP had nickels running for 30k. I loved how the fields were huge and horses would drop from being well placed in 20k claimer into 5's. I thought it was fun handicapping and added to the fun. What's wrong with a field of 12 7500 claimers running for 28k?

Nothing, other than the fact lame horses get jammed in trying to win a last gasp purse, and some of them snap a leg.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Nothing, other than the fact lame horses get jammed in trying to win a last gasp purse, and some of them snap a leg.

That is just not accurate in most cases. What people are trying to do is get those horses claimed, the amount of the purse is immaterial. What the higher purse does is allow the claim and drop to be a financial viable strategy which provides cover because the competition has a harder time deciphering between a horse being dumped and a horse dropping to win an easy purse. I'm sure when Baffert dumped that horse a few weeks back he wasn't concerned with the purse at all but was chiefly trying to find the horse a new home, the potential purse is just gravy.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Nothing, other than the fact lame horses get jammed in trying to win a last gasp purse, and some of them snap a leg.

You didn't like the 12 horse 5 claimers for 30k at MP? Forget about the snapping legs as we know scum will be scum, save that the claiming races with the ridiculous bloated purses and consequently big pools were a welcomed change

[TouchOfGrey]

In other inner track news:

Horse Deaths at Aqueduct Stir Action by State Board

Four fatalities since 12/12/12.

[Dahoss]

Not to worry...Joe Drape is on the case.