Will Less Stud Income Help Keep Horses Racing

[randallscott35]

Obviously fillies are a different question here but I feel like we have turned the corner in some respect to having horses actually run rather than be retired to stud. Maybe Curlin was a bit of a turning point, though I get it he wasn't racing till he was 6. But looking at some horses who are continuing to run I am hoping the downside of an economic slowdown will be an upside for older horses who continue to run. At the very least seeing horses like Rachel and Zenyatta and Goldikova gives me hope that the colts aren't far behind.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Obviously fillies are a different question here but I feel like we have turned the corner in some respect to having horses actually run rather than be retired to stud. Maybe Curlin was a bit of a turning point, though I get it he wasn't racing till he was 6. But looking at some horses who are continuing to run I am hoping the downside of an economic slowdown will be an upside for older horses who continue to run. At the very least seeing horses like Rachel and Zenyatta and Goldikova gives me hope that the colts aren't far behind.

You need another 30 to 40% correction to approach your dream... You can still syndicate a well bred mutliple G1 (including KD or Travers) for 10's of millions..

Sea the Stars is owned by an extremely wealthy family and they still couldnt resist retiring the colt? A Big Brown type MIGHT have a tougher time being retired but in all candor the shed is the SHIIIIT

[Danzig]

when it's a down market, breeders go to tried and true studs with years of proven sale value, rather than taking a huge risk on a new sire. that's why horses are spending more time, for the most part, on the track rather than going to stud. when the market turns, and eventually it will, then new horses will be the hot commodity again. it's not the stud fee so much as going for the sure (as close in breeding as sure can be) return on your breeding investment.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

You need another 30 to 40% correction to approach your dream... You can still syndicate a well bred mutliple G1 (including KD or Travers) for 10's of millions..

Sea the Stars is owned by an extremely wealthy family and they still couldnt resist retiring the colt? A Big Brown type MIGHT have a tougher time being retired but in all candor the shed is the SHIIIIT

Look at the number of horses that were retired "early" last year. There were hardly any. You will have a hardtime getting 10's of millions for anyone right now. Sea the Stars was being retired regardless, that is simply what that guy does.
What you will see (are seeing?) is horses that arent absolute great stallion prospects like Quality Road and Summer Bird return to the races as 4 year olds. You will see mares that are racing in top stakes company stay in training a little longer (outside of Z and RA who are special cases) especially if they dont have a dynamite pedigree.

While it is unfortunate is that for a generation of horses we didnt see the top ones perform at 4 or older. Especially troubling was the retirement of the lessor 3 year olds who may have broke through as older horses like Lawyer Ron did or as QR seems to be doing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I agree.

But I'm not really sure Quality Road is breaking through as a 4yo ... he ran a 113 Beyer in career start #3 when he stalked This Ones For Phil's vicious pace. A King's Bishop winner in Capt Candyman Can tried to move with him on the turn and totally collapsed in the stretch.

I think issues with his feet set him back a little after that.

[freddymo]

Chuck if you win the Travers or Derby and have a strong pedigree you are going to retire your colt..Especially if the owner is Smarty Jones like as suppose to a Ned Evans.. IF you own the the FoY winner and win the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby you aren't going to be racing at 4 PERIOD.. Quality Road is way to special a prospect who has done too little for a man of such means to retire..

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Look at the number of horses that were retired "early" last year. There were hardly any. You will have a hardtime getting 10's of millions for anyone right now. Sea the Stars was being retired regardless, that is simply what that guy does.
What you will see (are seeing?) is horses that arent absolute great stallion prospects like Quality Road and Summer Bird return to the races as 4 year olds. You will see mares that are racing in top stakes company stay in training a little longer (outside of Z and RA who are special cases) especially if they dont have a dynamite pedigree.

While it is unfortunate is that for a generation of horses we didnt see the top ones perform at 4 or older. Especially troubling was the retirement of the lessor 3 year olds who may have broke through as older horses like Lawyer Ron did or as QR seems to be doing.

I think the kid realizes that 100 mares at 100k a pop is a lock for 3 years..You cant win that on the track..

[GenuineRisk]

If you have a horse breeding say, 100 mares, at $10,000 each, that's a million dollars per year. How many horses earn that in a year?

Figure the Derby winner or BCC winner can get $30,000 to $50,000, and that's three to five million for the year. He'd pretty much have to win the Dubai World Cup or the BCC every year to approach that.

If racing was serious about keeping horses on the track, they'd limit the number of mares each stallion could breed (they already do to some extent, by requiring it be natural cover, so it's not impossible), but that's not likely.

Or require them to be five or six before they can breed. Again, na gan hapen.

On the bright side, two of the last ten Derby winners were geldings.

[GenuineRisk]

Cannon said it better than I. Some of the not-quite-at-the-very-tops will stay around longer, but I doubt many will do it past 4.

Still think it'll be rare to see the Derby winner back at 4 if he's a colt.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Look at the number of horses that were retired "early" last year. There were hardly any. You will have a hardtime getting 10's of millions for anyone right now. Sea the Stars was being retired regardless, that is simply what that guy does.
What you will see (are seeing?) is horses that arent absolute great stallion prospects like Quality Road and Summer Bird return to the races as 4 year olds. You will see mares that are racing in top stakes company stay in training a little longer (outside of Z and RA who are special cases) especially if they dont have a dynamite pedigree.

While it is unfortunate is that for a generation of horses we didnt see the top ones perform at 4 or older. Especially troubling was the retirement of the lessor 3 year olds who may have broke through as older horses like Lawyer Ron did or as QR seems to be doing.

G-d willing the Smart Smart colt wins 2011 Preakness and Travers tops out with a BSF of 117 and Farish offers 8 mill to stand him..NOT 18 or 28 0r 38 but 8 mil... I am guessing 8 mil would be low but a good starting point..GO BOB

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Chuck if you win the Travers or Derby and have a strong pedigree you are going to retire your colt..Especially if the owner is Smarty Jones like as suppose to a Ned Evans.. IF you own the the FoY winner and win the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby you aren't going to be racing at 4 PERIOD.. Quality Road is way to special a prospect who has done too little for a man of such means to retire..

No Freddy that simply is conjecture. Look at listed stud fees. Remember those are "listed". Everyone is looking for a deal. EVERYONE! Breeders dont want to pay until the baby sells, people want 1/2 price or foal shares, etc. No one outside of Sheik Mo is willing or able to play at the level.

The only signifigant horse to retire to stud last year early was Zensational. I am not including Pioneer of the Nile because he bowed and needed to be retired regardless.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/sta...f4=KY&sf7=2010


The stud farms are feeling a lot of heat. The market is sh it, banks are turning away, Sheik Mo has big trouble at home, The Irish guys are getting hammered at home as well. People arent paying their upkeep on mares or thier stud fees. Not only has the economic issues made things tough, a market correction was probably coming anyway as the value of bloodstock was way too high in relation to how much could be made.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I think the kid realizes that 100 mares at 100k a pop is a lock for 3 years..You cant win that on the track..

But few horses get 100 mares in foal three years running and right now an amazing number of breedings arent cash breedings. Do you have any idea how many horses go through the Kee sales ring with leins on them? Collecting the money isnt so easy either. If a guy doesnt pay what can you do? Sue them? Take the mare?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No Freddy that simply is conjecture. Look at listed stud fees. Remember those are "listed". Everyone is looking for a deal. EVERYONE! Breeders dont want to pay until the baby sells, people want 1/2 price or foal shares, etc. No one outside of Sheik Mo is willing or able to play at the level.

The only signifigant horse to retire to stud last year early was Zensational. I am not including Pioneer of the Nile because he bowed and needed to be retired regardless.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/sta...f4=KY&sf7=2010


The stud farms are feeling a lot of heat. The market is sh it, banks are turning away, Sheik Mo has big trouble at home, The Irish guys are getting hammered at home as well. People arent paying their upkeep on mares or thier stud fees. Not only has the economic issues made things tough, a market correction was probably coming anyway as the value of bloodstock was way too high in relation to how much could be made.

I here you they offered Repent at 3k to me the day after Sweet Repent ran a 109 BSF. The horse has been a solid producer and they are still dealing.. YET, if you have well bred colt that runs his ass off in significant G1 races you are going to get more money day 1 then if you raced and succeeded for years.. Chuck the Met is 500k this year down from whart 750 at its peak?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

But few horses get 100 mares in foal three years running and right now an amazing number of breedings arent cash breedings. Do you have any idea how many horses go through the Kee sales ring with leins on them? Collecting the money isnt so easy either. If a guy doesnt pay what can you do? Sue them? Take the mare?

Chuck a lot of 20k plus stallions service 100 mares.. Sunriver did 180 in two years..he was a pig from a Halo line who was best on turf and Pletcher drugs

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

If you have a horse breeding say, 100 mares, at $10,000 each, that's a million dollars per year. How many horses earn that in a year?

Figure the Derby winner or BCC winner can get $30,000 to $50,000, and that's three to five million for the year. He'd pretty much have to win the Dubai World Cup or the BCC every year to approach that.

If racing was serious about keeping horses on the track, they'd limit the number of mares each stallion could breed (they already do to some extent, by requiring it be natural cover, so it's not impossible), but that's not likely.

Or require them to be five or six before they can breed. Again, na gan hapen.

On the bright side, two of the last ten Derby winners were geldings.

But what you dont know (but you will now) is that of those 100 mares there are a whole lot who arent paying that fee. Most bigtime stallions are syndicated. I would guess most are 50 shares now though some are still 40 and others are 60. Each share holder gets a breeding season for his share and for lesser stallions 2 breeding seasons for years 2 and 3. Those people arent paying. A certain number of clients will want to do a foal share which a few years ago was unheard of for a high profile, first year stallion but times are changing. Some people connected to the horse like the trainer get a comp breeding right. Virtually all stallions are stands and nurses so you dont get paid for a year and nor at all if the mare aborts or the foal is born dead (or in bad shape or is crooked because they are often reported as dead)

The restrictions would fly in the face of the realities of the stallion business and would serve to further punish owners of sucessful horses. We need to do what we can to get and keep owners, not restrict their ability to make a windfall profit which will not only help them recover losses but keep them in the game.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Chuck a lot of 20k plus stallions service 100 mares.. Sunriver did 180 in two years..he was a pig from a Halo line who was best on turf and Pletcher drugs

How many of them paid full boat? probably one. you

[GenuineRisk]

Bloodhorse had an interesting article on how the economic downturn might increase the chance for a Triple Crown winner:

Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013


I just hope he's a gelding. Was it Affirmed's trainer or owner who said they wouldn't really know how good he was until he raced at 4? Ah, the 1970's...

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

G-d willing the Smart Smart colt wins 2011 Preakness and Travers tops out with a BSF of 117 and Farish offers 8 mill to stand him..NOT 18 or 28 0r 38 but 8 mil... I am guessing 8 mil would be low but a good starting point..GO BOB

We would sell 1/2 of him to you for $4 million and roll the dice that we have a big 4 yo year

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Chuck a lot of 20k plus stallions service 100 mares.. Sunriver did 180 in two years..he was a pig from a Halo line who was best on turf and Pletcher drugs

Mares bred isnt the important number. Foals are. And a huge % of them arent paying 20k.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Bloodhorse had an interesting article on how the economic downturn might increase the chance for a Triple Crown winner:

Good Chance for a Triple Crown in 2013


I just hope he's a gelding. Was it Affirmed's trainer or owner who said they wouldn't really know how good he was until he raced at 4? Ah, the 1970's...

Not one good 3 yo retired to stud for this year unless you consider Zensational good. The 70's were before what has hurt the breed the most but everyone seems to ignore it, the bloodstock boom of the early 80's.