BC Euro's

[The Indomitable DrugS]

My big angle going into last years Breeders Cup was, on synthetic, I want the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th strings Euro's and not the one the bettors gravitatie to.

I know I talked about that a lot with Vol Jack and some others before the BC's entries last year ... but as it turned out, only 2 BC races on synthetic had more than one Euro in it. I was very upset about that.

The Marathon had 2: 7/5 favorite Sixties Icon and eventual $26.80 winner Muhannak.

The Classic had 3: 9/1 shortest Euro Duke of Marmalade - 13/1 second string Euro Raven's Pass won and 19/1 third string Euro Henrythenavigator was 2nd.

Looking to this year ... a horse like Gitano Hernando won the Goodwood at 18/1 odds ... but he had weak form and had another Euro with halfway respectable form come over for the Goodwood ... I really believe Gitano Hernando would have been CLEARLY the longest shot on the board in the Goodwood.

He was hammered to 18/1 odds on the basis of a first time Euro angle that would have lost a ton of steam had a perceived superior Euro come over with him.

This year - I have the same "our American horses really suck" feeling in a lot of divisions ... but I also think you will have to avoid the Euro's who bring the best form over... especially in the synthetic track races.

I've never been a big fan of Euro's 2nd time in North America either.

I know there is a strong contrarian case forming to play against the Euro's all day long on the basis that they project to be overbet ... but there's one huge problem with that ... a lot of our divisions are pure crap.

I will try to avoid the Euro with the best form .. and I will become most attracted to the ones who make me say "they sure did come a long way to be double digit odds... and I bet they don't even know how bad the American horses suck historically in this division compared to past years"

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

My big angle going into last years Breeders Cup was, on synthetic, I want the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th strings Euro's and not the one the bettors gravitatie to.

I know I talked about that a lot with Vol Jack and some others before the BC's entries last year ... but as it turned out, only 2 BC races on synthetic had more than one Euro in it. I was very upset about that.

The Marathon had 2: 7/5 favorite Sixties Icon and eventual $26.80 winner Muhannak.

The Classic had 3: 9/1 shortest Euro Duke of Marmalade - 13/1 second string Euro Raven's Pass won and 19/1 third string Euro Henrythenavigator was 2nd.

Looking to this year ... a horse like Gitano Hernando won the Goodwood at 18/1 odds ... but he had weak form and had another Euro with halfway respectable form come over for the Goodwood ... I really believe Gitano Hernando would have been CLEARLY the longest shot on the board in the Goodwood.

He was hammered to 18/1 odds on the basis of a first time Euro angle that would have lost a ton of steam had a perceived superior Euro come over with him.

This year - I have the same "our American horses really suck" feeling in a lot of divisions ... but I also think you will have to avoid the Euro's who bring the best form over... especially in the synthetic track races.

I've never been a big fan of Euro's 2nd time in North America either.

I know there is a strong contrarian case forming to play against the Euro's all day long on the basis that they project to be overbet ... but there's one huge problem with that ... a lot of our divisions are pure crap.

I will try to avoid the Euro with the best form .. and I will become most attracted to the ones who make me say "they sure did come a long way to be double digit odds... and I bet they don't even know how bad the American horses suck historically in this division compared to past years"

I think they DOMINATE THE Juvy turf races... Disapoint in the Mile and Classic...

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

My big angle going into last years Breeders Cup was, on synthetic, I want the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th strings Euro's and not the one the bettors gravitatie to.

I know I talked about that a lot with Vol Jack and some others before the BC's entries last year ... but as it turned out, only 2 BC races on synthetic had more than one Euro in it. I was very upset about that.

The Marathon had 2: 7/5 favorite Sixties Icon and eventual $26.80 winner Muhannak.

The Classic had 3: 9/1 shortest Euro Duke of Marmalade - 13/1 second string Euro Raven's Pass won and 19/1 third string Euro Henrythenavigator was 2nd.

Looking to this year ... a horse like Gitano Hernando won the Goodwood at 18/1 odds ... but he had weak form and had another Euro with halfway respectable form come over for the Goodwood ... I really believe Gitano Hernando would have been CLEARLY the longest shot on the board in the Goodwood.

He was hammered to 18/1 odds on the basis of a first time Euro angle that would have lost a ton of steam had a perceived superior Euro come over with him.

This year - I have the same "our American horses really suck" feeling in a lot of divisions ... but I also think you will have to avoid the Euro's who bring the best form over... especially in the synthetic track races.

I've never been a big fan of Euro's 2nd time in North America either.


I know there is a strong contrarian case forming to play against the Euro's all day long on the basis that they project to be overbet ... but there's one huge problem with that ... a lot of our divisions are pure crap.

I will try to avoid the Euro with the best form .. and I will become most attracted to the ones who make me say "they sure did come a long way to be double digit odds... and I bet they don't even know how bad the American horses suck historically in this division compared to past years"

Was that the horse that I told you had no shot??
I think it was.

[Linny]

I've never seen Henrythenavigator or Raven's Pass called 3rd and 2nd string before. Henry was a multiple G1 winner and Raven had been his shadow until the QEII when he turned the tables and earned his G1.

Gitano Hernando was hammered because he looked (like Muhannak last year) like an "all weather" specialist.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Linny

I've never seen Henrythenavigator or Raven's Pass called 3rd and 2nd string before.

I was thinking the same thing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In terms of odds they were.

Sometimes I really wonder about you guys.

It's like saying Tom Brady's not 2nd string even though Payton Manning is going to start over him in the Pro Bowl.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Linny

Gitano Hernando was hammered because he looked (like Muhannak last year) like an "all weather" specialist.

The one's who've never raced on synthetic in Europe have been getting hammered just as hard... if not harder.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In terms of odds they were.

Sometimes I really wonder about you guys.

It's like saying Tom Brady's not 2nd string even though Payton Manning is going to start over him in the Pro Bowl.

Peyton.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In terms of odds they were.

Sometimes I really wonder about you guys.

It's like saying Tom Brady's not 2nd string even though Payton Manning is going to start over him in the Pro Bowl.

The connotation of "second string" doesn't match up with what you were trying to say.

For what it's worth, I'm a big fan of the "other Euro" angle as well. . .

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

connotation

Don't pull a Byk and use big words on me.

String is easier to type than "betting choice" over and over.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Peyton.

It's not my problem his parents gave him a girls first name.

You guys expect way too much from me. Spelling sissy first names correctly and using proper connotation is for someone that isn't mixing his posting up with the downloading of massive amounts of pron and making trip notes and pace figs for recent races.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's not my problem his parents gave him a girls first name.

You guys expect way too much from me. Spelling sissy first names correctly and using proper connotation is for someone that isn't mixing his posting up with the downloading of massive amounts of pron and making trip notes and pace figs for recent races.

C'mon, I know you know how to spell your favorite word.