Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-29-2009, 08:55 PM
2MinsToPost's Avatar
2MinsToPost 2MinsToPost is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,760
Default Music Note = A $4,000 Loss

I did not use Music Note and it cost me - big. Like almost $4,000 big.

Here was my Pick 4 play today.
1,2,8 / 3,4 / 2,3,8 / 4,6
A,A,B / B,A / A,A,A / A,A

Make matters worse, I gave Music Note an A and did not use. I felt Tar Heel Mom had the better chance, even though I ranked this horse a B. I felt this way based on what I had seen from previous races. As well as Tar Heel Moms’ effort in the slop at Saratoga in August of last year in an OC 75k. So I use 2 B’s, one gets home in the first leg and throws this Pick 4 into some big money.

I have spent the last couple of hours literally beating myself up. I budgeted $40 for my Pick 4 play and did not want to go over, so I decided at the last minute to drop Music Note and use Tar Heel Mom.

It cost me a score, a damn big score. Man this hurts.

Based on my budget I thought I played the ticket well, but now thinking back I wonder if I could have played it different. Any suggestions?

Could have been by far my biggest score ever. This one is gonna sting for many, many moons.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-29-2009, 09:04 PM
declansharbor's Avatar
declansharbor declansharbor is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Exit 30
Posts: 6,357
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost
I did not use Music Note and it cost me - big. Like almost $4,000 big.

Here was my Pick 4 play today.
1,2,8 / 3,4 / 2,3,8 / 4,6
A,A,B / B,A / A,A,A / A,A

Make matters worse, I gave Music Note an A and did not use. I felt Tar Heel Mom had the better chance, even though I ranked this horse a B. I felt this way based on what I had seen from previous races. As well as Tar Heel Moms’ effort in the slop at Saratoga in August of last year in an OC 75k. So I use 2 B’s, one gets home in the first leg and throws this Pick 4 into some big money.

I have spent the last couple of hours literally beating myself up. I budgeted $40 for my Pick 4 play and did not want to go over, so I decided at the last minute to drop Music Note and use Tar Heel Mom.

It cost me a score, a damn big score. Man this hurts.

Based on my budget I thought I played the ticket well, but now thinking back I wonder if I could have played it different. Any suggestions?

Could have been by far my biggest score ever. This one is gonna sting for many, many moons.
So, in essence, you = $4k loss. If Music Note was an A, it boils down to you being to blame for the loss.

Could've played it differently doesnt even begin to explain it. Hell, Munnings and Kensei were my top two picks of the day, yet I still managed to hit the pick 3 starting with race 10. I found out last year, that setting a budget before looking at the sequence to determine how much it would take to hit, is a disaster. No if, ands, or buts about it.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital"

- Nathan Israel
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 08-29-2009, 09:18 PM
MaTH716's Avatar
MaTH716 MaTH716 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Jersey
Posts: 11,438
Default

I think the budget was the problem. For another 18 bucks you would have been able to cover a horse, that you had as an A in the sequance. 18 Dollars on a guaranteed million dollar pool. Hell I know I piss that away even before I even make my first bet at the track when I go with the boys.

Get ready for a couple of sleepless nights.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 08-29-2009, 10:24 PM
docicu3 docicu3 is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,778
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MaTH716
I think the budget was the problem. For another 18 bucks you would have been able to cover a horse, that you had as an A in the sequance. 18 Dollars on a guaranteed million dollar pool. Hell I know I piss that away even before I even make my first bet at the track when I go with the boys.

Get ready for a couple of sleepless nights.

How did you have the 8 in the first leg as simply a "B"......C or X maybe but hardly a B. If you hit the all button I agree but what was it about that horse that had you seeing him as the 3rd horse in that race?
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 08-29-2009, 10:41 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost
I did not use Music Note and it cost me - big. Like almost $4,000 big.

Here was my Pick 4 play today.
1,2,8 / 3,4 / 2,3,8 / 4,6
A,A,B / B,A / A,A,A / A,A

Make matters worse, I gave Music Note an A and did not use. I felt Tar Heel Mom had the better chance, even though I ranked this horse a B. I felt this way based on what I had seen from previous races. As well as Tar Heel Moms’ effort in the slop at Saratoga in August of last year in an OC 75k. So I use 2 B’s, one gets home in the first leg and throws this Pick 4 into some big money.

I have spent the last couple of hours literally beating myself up. I budgeted $40 for my Pick 4 play and did not want to go over, so I decided at the last minute to drop Music Note and use Tar Heel Mom.

It cost me a score, a damn big score. Man this hurts.

Based on my budget I thought I played the ticket well, but now thinking back I wonder if I could have played it different. Any suggestions?

Could have been by far my biggest score ever. This one is gonna sting for many, many moons.
We should have hooked up, I hit the first 2 and was live to a 4-2 finish AND NOTHING.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 08-29-2009, 10:52 PM
ArlJim78 ArlJim78 is offline
Newmarket
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 6,549
Default

i feel your pain, i also did not use music note but had the other three legs.
i was sky high when the 8 took the first leg, but the blood drained from my face when music note won because i knew i had the rest of it.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 08-30-2009, 04:21 PM
2MinsToPost's Avatar
2MinsToPost 2MinsToPost is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,760
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by docicu3
How did you have the 8 in the first leg as simply a "B"......C or X maybe but hardly a B. If you hit the all button I agree but what was it about that horse that had you seeing him as the 3rd horse in that race?
Two reasons why I liked this horse as a B versus a C, First Time Import and First Time Lasix. I've watched enough of these foreign invaders come over and snag races on the lawn at decent prices that I was not gonna let this one get by.

I gotta let this potential score go, I am still po'ed at myself almost 24 hours later. Good luck to whoever is playin today.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 08-30-2009, 04:24 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
i feel your pain, i also did not use music note but had the other three legs.
i was sky high when the 8 took the first leg, but the blood drained from my face when music note won because i knew i had the rest of it.
That pretty much sums up my day. From the high of getting the longshot home in the first leg to totally busted in the second leg.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 08-30-2009, 04:42 PM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost
Two reasons why I liked this horse as a B versus a C, First Time Import and First Time Lasix. I've watched enough of these foreign invaders come over and snag races on the lawn at decent prices that I was not gonna let this one get by.

I gotta let this potential score go, I am still po'ed at myself almost 24 hours later. Good luck to whoever is playin today.
Let it go. As long as you continue to play horses, there will be more worse beats than this. Its just that kind of racket. Thats why we work. If it makes you feel any better, I went 0 for 4 in the pick 4, and 0 for 6 in the pick 6. And I made a big win bet on Charitable Man. That tells you the kind of day I had. See you this weekend and we will erase both our bad days!
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 08-30-2009, 04:43 PM
Gander Gander is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,336
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor
So, in essence, you = $4k loss. If Music Note was an A, it boils down to you being to blame for the loss.

Could've played it differently doesnt even begin to explain it. Hell, Munnings and Kensei were my top two picks of the day, yet I still managed to hit the pick 3 starting with race 10. I found out last year, that setting a budget before looking at the sequence to determine how much it would take to hit, is a disaster. No if, ands, or buts about it.
Wow, just rub salt in his open wound. Hit him in the head with a 2 by 4. Stab him in the ankle with a rusty nail.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 08-30-2009, 05:19 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,278
Default

got you all beat missed out on 27k and 41k 7/9 in last in the pick six by not using grazburg who figured but i used 3 horses in that leg.. 48 buck ticket..im still waking up screaming at spanky to get up..
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 08-31-2009, 12:33 AM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 5,403
Default

I don't understand why you would have Music Note as an "A" and Tar Heel Mom a "B" if you liked THM more.

The bottom line is that you made a seemingly rational decision before the race and that's all you can do. You used the horse that you liked better and made a play that fit into your bankroll constraints. If you weren't thinking or just did something stupid then you'd be justified in being upset, but there's no point in second guessing yourself after the fact in this case.

When I first started playing a lot my friend and I would look back at cards on big days and discuss how much we would have had to have spent to hit the PK4 or PK6 or whatever. We'd get so upset because things seemed so clear and simple after the fact, but then I realized how worthless something like that is. You can learn from past mistakes and omissions, but every second you waste thinking about past defeats is a second you could be spending doing something productive or profitable. Just turn the page and move on to the next race.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.